It is possible, of course, that some of our hopes for victory were due to self-deception. However, Ukraine definitely had certain prerequisites, at a minimum, to prevent a turning point in the war in Putin’s favor.
Unlike now, 2024 already does not promise us anything good, and we are not even talking about the theater of military operations. First of all, this is about the situation in the rear, including outside Ukraine.
Western help
The strategic mistake of Zelensky’s office at the end of 2022 was the calculation that Ukraine had 2 years left before Trump could come to power in the United States (now this seems to be practically no alternative option). In reality, this period was reduced to one year. Today, even the Senate, where the Democrats have a majority, is not able to vote on financial support for our country, and it is obvious that next year the situation in the American political kitchen will become even worse for us.
Against the backdrop of what is happening in the States, the impotent attempts of the European Union to somehow replace American assistance look like a tragicomedy played out in public, the essence of which is sabotage of the allocation of 50 billion euros through the use of Putin’s “useful idiots” in the person of Hungary, Slovakia, and, which came as a complete surprise, Poland. As a result, this “group of comrades” turned out to be tactically useful not only to the Kremlin dwarf, but also to official Brussels.
Support for the Global South
For almost the entire year, Ukrainian diplomats have been trying to build relations with what is commonly called the global South. And this is not only the wretched African failed states, but also, among other things, India and the rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf (China is a different story). In fact, on October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel, all these efforts came to naught. Ukraine expressed support for Tel Aviv (and honestly, it could hardly have done otherwise) and wrapped up...
As a result, we are now observing not only an increased shortage of supplies of shells to our country due to their sending for the “pacification” of Palestine, but also a solemn meeting of Putin in the UAE, where local pilots “drew” on American F-16s (which they still won’t hand over to us) “The Russian tricolor is in the sky. A less warm welcome awaited him in Saudi Arabia, but still. To understand the tragedy of this incident: just a year ago, the sovereign funds of these 2 countries were going to vigorously buy Ukrainian assets “for a small price” and showed us all kinds of support.
Protecting and supporting energy infrastructure
It was obvious that from the point of view of shelling of our power plants and energy networks, the current heating season would be much “hotter” than the previous one. In order to concentrate the maximum possible supply of missiles “under the Christmas tree” (obviously, the period will be chosen when in most parts of our country a stable “minus” of around -10 is established for at least a week), Russia now practically does not spend them, limiting itself to drones. According to Ukrainian intelligence data, the Russian Federation has almost 1,000 missiles in stock that can be used to attack energy infrastructure.
In order to illustrate the level of our readiness for such a scenario, we will cite only 2 facts. Akhmetovsky DTEK, which controls the lion's share of the capacities balancing the Ukrainian energy system, recently reported that it was able to repair only 21 of the 27 power units previously damaged by Russia by this winter. It is not surprising that today, even before the start of harsh shelling, Ukrenergo is forced to resort to emergency imports of electricity from neighboring countries.
Well, the statement of the head of the Naeima Restoration Agency that 22 key substations of the domestic energy system in 15 regions will be protected by special fortifications that will protect them from both drones and missiles was frankly delivered. True, this will happen by the end of winter 2024 . What to do in the first half of the heating season, and most importantly, why this could not be done in a whole year, Mustafa bashfully remained silent.
Transferring the economy to a war footing
For Ukraine, such a shock as war was a good opportunity to rebuild the economy. To return to the country the glory of not only the granary, but also the forge. Unfortunately, the possibility of “new industrialization” came up against the desire of the OP to conduct business as usual: not to build weapons production facilities, relying on the supply of Western weapons.
By the end of the year it finally became clear that this too was a strategic mistake. And today the authorities, in scalded cat mode, are trying to intensify the processes of reviving the defense complex. The successes can be judged by Zelensky’s latest statement that Ukraine has begun production of 6 Bogdan self-propelled guns per month. For reference: the backward Soviet Union (by the way, 80 years ago) after a year and a half of war produced more than a thousand T-34s every month.
It is clear that direct analogies cannot be drawn here, but when you hear from the Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin that the production of 155-caliber shells will be established only in 2 years, you become frankly uneasy about the prospects opening up for us in this war.
Fight against corruption
Among other things, the war gave Ukraine a chance to finally deal with such a generational curse as corruption. This not only did not happen, but as is customary in our conditions, the ugly phenomenon mutated in the most unexpected way. In addition to the growing level of kickbacks in all segments related to defense and security (it was even necessary to dismiss the entire Minister of Defense along with his entire gop team), a huge corruption market has flourished in the country, essentially built on the price of a man’s life.
And this is not only about corruption in military registration and enlistment offices and medical commissions. This is about the “Shlyakh” system, and about other similar loopholes both at the border itself and at the level of regional state administrations plus relevant ministries and departments. It is obvious that in the current situation this market is only doomed to grow.
Oligarchy
Something similar happened in the case of the main backbone of Ukraine - the oligarchs. However, if you don’t think deeply, then everything here looks quite optimistic. Kolomoisky is in a pre-trial detention center, Zhevago, Novinsky, Yaroslavsky and a dozen other smaller figures are on the run, Firtash’s gas distribution empire “Naftogaz” was literally taken to pieces.
The second half of the puzzle haunts me, in which lie two blocks, two hardened men - Akhmetov and Pinchuk. The Donetsk oligarch is especially not discouraged: his people have already occupied many responsible positions in the country and are dragging more and more people from SCM structures into government bodies. And all this against the backdrop of the blatant inability of the same DTEK to respond to wartime challenges (see the story about the 21st power unit).
Such “selective justice”, in conditions when the law on oligarchs has been put on hold, gives rise to natural questions about how these two deserved such a position. Let’s assume that the reluctance to touch Kuchma’s son-in-law is explained by his effective connections in Western politics. But how did Akhmetov, who doesn’t even try to look like a decent person, deserve this: the other day it became known that in 2022 he purchased another apartment in central London at a price approximately equal to the assistance of all his structures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a year and a half of war - a huge question for the president personally .
Construction of defense lines
Only by the end of the year was Zelensky able to accept the reality of what was happening (for this, among other things, it took Zaluzhny’s article in The Economist) and gave the order not only to go on the defensive, but also to begin building deeply echeloned lines throughout the country - right up to Western Ukraine.
The decision is obviously extremely late, especially considering the special pleasure of digging/building something in winter, but better late than never.
Maintaining stability in the rear
According to a deeply rooted national tradition, in the absence of good news at the front and the betrayal of the allies, we are seeing something painfully similar to the situation a century ago. Conflict lines (Zelensky - Zaluzhny, SBU - GUR, OP - KSCA, Podolyak-Arestovich) appear in the most unexpected places and multiply uncontrollably. And the reserve regiment called “Eurosolidarity” has not yet really come into play.
An interesting feature of modern Ukraine (as a result of the war, about 40% of the population, according to the World Bank, is on the verge of poverty or already beyond it) is that tension in society does not develop within the framework of the traditional “poor-rich” dichotomy, but easily can be channeled into language conflicts and attempts to find out who is the biggest patriot here.
It is obvious that political life in the country clearly reacts to our successes at the front. And in the absence of such, it easily mutates into a “witch hunt.” And there will be more and more such campaigns in Ukraine in 2024.
New Diaspora
The situation at home is a sobering factor even for those refugees who were only recently planning to return home. According to the NBU, of the more than 6 million refugees today, about 20% have firmly decided to stay in their “new homeland”. It is obvious that the news of 2024 will fuel a “never again” mood among this group of our fellow citizens.
On the other hand, the majority of countries receiving our refugees will gradually tighten the screws and even directly offer to leave with their things. Switzerland and Norway have already become the first signs here. Therefore, of those who arrived in Europe after the start of full-scale aggression, at most two million Ukrainians will be able to settle in a new place of residence. The rest will return and become a factor of instability in post-war Ukraine: having become acquainted with higher standards of living, they will obviously demand the impossible from the authorities.
Sanctions against Russia
In some isolated moments they worked, but overall they became yet another proof of the West’s inability to influence even its partners. Perhaps the biggest failure was the attempt to set a price ceiling for Russian oil at $60 per barrel. It literally made smuggling groups around the world and entire states like India rich. Even the US Navy today does not shy away from purchasing Russian oil.
In Ukraine, things are not going well with sanctions either. The ties with Russian business were so strong that now almost every domestic financial and industrial group is “on their toes” about joint projects with the enemy. Another question is that not everyone comes to the question “where does the firewood come from”. The same Roman Abramovich retained a share in Rinat Akhmetov’s Yuzhny GOK. And even where the state managed to take away Russian assets by chance or by chance, their Ukrainian partners are threatening to sue. A recent example is that a businessman with the telling surname Ivanov is going to fight with Ukraine for the capital’s Ocean Plaza shopping center.
Mobilization
Perhaps the most scandalous topic on our internal agenda. The military insists on the need to mobilize hundreds of thousands in order to maintain at least some parity with Russia, which massively sends its outcasts “for meat”; Civil authorities are perplexed why, in a country where the number of security forces even before the war was close to a million, it is impossible to rotate units at the expense of units, for example, located on the Belarusian border, and at the front it is precisely untrained/unfired ones that are needed.
It is obvious that in 2024, in addition to forced mobilization, there will be an active recruitment into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of those for whom this is a way to improve their financial situation (which is especially important in conditions of poverty growing like a cancerous tumor). However, the main emphasis will still be on narrowing as much as possible the circle of citizens entitled to a deferment from military service. Even prisoners will be registered with the military, while at the same time providing for stricter criminal liability for those who try to “deviate”.
In any case, the Ukrainian mobilization resource (about 3 million people) cannot be compared with the enemy’s capabilities (even optimists admit that this is more than 10 million, pessimists put the figure at 25 million). Therefore, it is obvious that if we win this war, it will definitely not happen thanks to mobilization. However, the latter (or rather its absence in the required volume) can definitely become the reason for its loss.
