US aid to Ukraine and Israel is accelerating and will be accepted this month. Iran's attack on Israel on April 13 was the catalyst for this process. After which a window of opportunity opened to speed up the adoption of a single package of US assistance to its allies, including both Ukraine and Israel. And the chance to take advantage of this window of opportunity will be taken while the effect for the American political class from a large-scale Iranian attack on Israel is maximum.
This is the most likely scenario for the United States to respond to another destructive strike by the states of the “Axis of Destruction” Russia - Iran - China - North Korea on the remnants of the world order that functioned after World War II and after the Cold War.
Translated by DeepL.com (free version)
In this scenario, Israel does not launch an open, large-scale attack on Iran in response to Saturday's attack. And as a “consolation prize” he will receive a quick positive vote for the American aid package. Which, again, complete with the help of Ukraine, has been on the floor in the House of Representatives of Congress for six months now.
As a person who was in Israel in 2014 during the IDF’s anti-terrorist operation against militants in the Gaza Strip, I was convinced that for Israel the rule of responding with a blow to a blow against it is reinforced concrete. And most likely, this time the answer will be the same. The only thing is that it will not be as large-scale and public as an attack by Iran with hundreds of missiles and drones. It may well be destructive, but hidden from view - for example, in cyberspace.
So, already this week the American Congress will consider assistance to Israel and Ukraine, not in order to consider it, but in order to reach its adoption. There is a certain percentage that there will be attempts to separate the aid packages for Israel and Ukraine. But given a) that aid to Israel is an extremely urgent issue for the entire political class of America and b) there is a fundamental consensus between the Biden administration, Speaker Johnson and Donald Trump on the need to accept aid to Ukraine, these attempts are unlikely to work.
Information about reaching a consensus on assistance to Ukraine and Israel is confirmed by the majority leader in the US Senate, Democrat Chuck Schumer. According to Schumer, the corresponding consensus was reached during a Sunday telephone conversation between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders.
He noted that the best way to direct aid to Israel and Ukraine is for the House to pass a Senate-approved supplemental national security bill that includes aid to both countries. (The Senate passed the $95 billion package in February, but House Speaker Mike Johnson has yet to bring it to a vote.)
At the same time, there is a possibility that the scale and strength of the Iranian attack on Israel will force, in addition to the United States, other allied states of our country, which cannot yet decide to transfer their existing air defense systems to Ukraine. After all, it’s one thing to hear that Ukraine is forced almost every day to repel such combined air attacks from Russia, another thing is to clearly see their threat and how much effort it took Israel, the USA, England, France and Jordan to together “land” this entire “heavenly armada."
Is this scenario for the development of events around the adoption of the American aid package to Ukraine 100% certain? Of course not. Its implementation can be influenced by many different factors. Starting from force majeure, which can suddenly aggravate the situation, to political bargaining between Israel and the United States, or the actions of the unpredictable Trump. However, it is precisely this scenario that today has the greatest chance of becoming a reality. And there is reason to hope that it will be quickly implemented.
