Monday, December 23, 2024
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Business climate in Ukraine - either you play according to the notes of Ermak-Tatarov, or you go to a pre-trial detention center

Relations between business and government deteriorated so much that the government’s attempt to reconcile was recorded by an entire order of the National Security and Defense Council.

This really made an impression on some businessmen: “they heard us!”, “the president reacted quickly and firmly,” “steps have been taken in the right direction,” and a completely shameful one: “thanks to the president and his team.” In order not to think something completely bad, let’s attribute this reaction of some entrepreneurs to ignorance, lack of involvement in the reforms of recent years, stress and lack of sleep.

Although, to be honest, it was difficult not to notice that the “fateful” decision of the National Security and Defense Council offered the real sector nothing at all.

The first point is to form a Council for Support of Entrepreneurship. And indeed, it will strengthen the Council for the Promotion of Small Business Development, the Office for Entrepreneurship Development, the Business Ombudsman Council and all regional business support centers combined. This plurality of councils will be crowned by the All-Ukrainian Economic Platform, the idea of ​​creating which dawned on the president after the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, but was voiced in the same vein. Once the platform starts working, we will help everyone, we will hear everyone!

Only the Business Ombudsman Council shows real results in helping businesses, while the rest simply exist.

For example, the following is known about the Council for the Promotion of Small Business Development, created by Zelensky in 2020:

  • in December 2020, its first meeting was held with the participation of Andrei Ermak, at which it was “agreed to prepare a solution on problematic business issues as quickly as possible”;
  • in December 2021, by presidential decree, Rostislav Shurma was appointed its chairman.

That's it, then there's emptiness. What happened to problematic issues and their fastest solutions since 2020? Well, somehow it didn’t work out.

But now, when the Council for Support of Entrepreneurship, and even the All-Ukrainian Platform, is operational, everything will definitely be different.

Point two is to reboot the Bureau of Economic Security by consolidating all economic crimes there, making changes to defense procurement and monitoring risks and criteria for blocking tax invoices.

Let's start with risk monitoring, that is, the long-term planned work of the Ministry of Finance. Entrusting it to the government by a separate decree of the National Security and Defense Council is like entrusting the sun to set in the East by a separate decree. And if this monitoring could help in any way, believe me, it would have already helped.

Here I would really like to send the authors of the document to a training session with business ombudsman Roman Vashchuk, whose organization is already showing real results in improving the situation with tax blocking. Thanks not to monitoring, but to systematic work.

People did an analysis, compiled a list of basic and technical recommendations and systematically, excuse the expression, pestered both the Ministry of Finance and the Tax Service with the question “when will our recommendations be taken into account?” Yes, the system resists, and even minimal progress takes months. But Mr. Waschuk has an inspiring graph with this progress and a recorded decrease in the volume of blocking. What will the Cabinet of Ministers have based on the monitoring results, besides the monitoring itself? So.

Changes in defense procurement (it is not yet clear what, because we are talking about a “settlement”), regardless of the details, can only please businesses interested in these defense procurements. With all due respect, not a revolution. In July last year, the government made changes to the Ministry of Defense’s procurement by passing a resolution - not even everyone in the news remembered this. And now, by direct decision, the National Security and Defense Council has been tasked with who knows what.

How was it there? - They heard us!

The circus with the reboot of the BEB, which is actually a requirement of the IMF and the EU, has been going on since March 2023, when the first corresponding bill was introduced into parliament. And in September 2023 - the second. And in October - the third. Some naive deputies even hoped that competitions would be held in the updated BEB in 2023, but somehow that didn’t work out either.

Rumor has it that it could not have happened without the deputy head of the OP, Oleg Tatarov. Alexander Lemenov spoke more than exhaustively about its influence on processes.

Therefore, the next mention of rebooting the BEB as a solution to all problems looks like an outright mockery. Previously, they couldn’t reboot because there was no decree from the National Security and Defense Council?

The third point, my favorite, is to instruct the Office of the Prosecutor General, the State Bureau of Investigation, the National Police, the Economic Security Service and the SBU to conduct an audit of the restrictive measures taken against business entities in criminal proceedings and determine their feasibility. That is, check yourself.

And they will all come to their senses and write in these reports how they were wrong, where they exceeded, where they abused, where they extorted, when they manipulated...

Okay, let’s say they write, what’s next?

And then the great thing: based on the audit results, develop effective mechanisms to ensure the protection of entrepreneurship from possible abuses by law enforcement agencies. Are these some new ones? Which were not included in the latest edition of Criminal Procedure?

By the way, they will be produced by the same Office of the Prosecutor General, the State Bureau of Investigation, the National Police, the Economic Security Service and the SBU. They will check themselves. They will write recommendations for themselves after group repentance.

At this point I would like to quote the president about “clearly defined steps that will help both Ukrainian entrepreneurs and government institutions overcome the entire complex of problems that have been discussed a lot these weeks.” With clearly defined steps, I think we have it figured out.

And now about the “weeks”, because Google didn’t ban us.

  • March 2020. Zelensky held a meeting with oligarchs.
  • March 2021. Ermak met with representatives of international business associations.
  • February 2022. Zelensky met with big business.
  • June 2023. Zelensky gathered entrepreneurs.
  • July 2023. Deputy heads of the OP Shurma and Tatarov held a “closed” meeting with business representatives.
  • September 2023. Deputy head of OP Shurma held a meeting with entrepreneurs.
  • January 2024. Deputy Prime Ministers Yulia Sviridenko and Mikhail Fedorov and Speaker of Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk held a meeting with business. Ermak’s adviser Daria Zarivnaya was present from the OP.

Every time we talk about the unfriendly business climate in Ukraine, the president’s office rolls up its sleeves and rushes to solve the global problem in a targeted manner: investments, meetings with business, councils under the president, again meetings, rebooting the BEB, meetings, rebooting again, advice again. We have already reached the Security and Defense Council, and the result is invariably zero.

And most importantly, have you noticed how, over the course of four years, the OP’s desire to maintain at least some adequate relations with the real sector has diminished? Where are the days of oligarchs and international business associations? What remained were bloodless remains. Some are on the edge, some are below the line, but even those in the best shape are definitely not living their best lives and should probably expect basic respect. But what am I talking about? Enough with Ermak’s advisor and a decision about nothing.

The key thesis of the “Mazepa” story, which provoked the current aggravation, is that no one here is truly without sin. Zelensky and company, who never abandoned their ambitions to build a strong autocracy here, will never tire of reminding business of this. No longer bothering too much with any imitations of unheard-of anxiety. Even without this, everything is clear, remember that everyone “heard us!” and “the president reacted harshly” - what is this if not an exemplary execution of the command “to serve.” Such devotion can be converted into a whole bunch of profits, but the main one, of course, is political.

It’s unlikely that Zelensky doesn’t have enough for his own company, but he certainly wouldn’t want someone to have the fortune to grow his potential competitors or, God forbid, for their own political ambitions. Everything is simple - either with the OP or in a pre-trial detention center.

Probably the best thing a business should do in this case is to stop looking into the owner's mouth. And Western partners (who, we hope, were not misled by this circus with the National Security and Defense Council) should support the real sector in this endeavor. Be that as it may, it will not be “Tatar boys” and “Ermakov girls” who will rebuild the country, but people who create jobs, added value and tax deductions.

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