The conflict between carriers on the border of Poland and Ukraine has led to problems in the domestic food market. Despite the availability of sufficient supplies of grains and vegetables, prices began to rise from November and continued their ascent in December 2023. The situation is not expected to improve in January-February 2024.
Upset import
We won’t think ahead, but the Poles say that after the holidays they will again hang large locks on the main checkpoints: the neighbors are in no hurry to make concessions. (Recall that back on November 6, 2023, Polish carriers blocked the movement of trucks at checkpoints with Ukraine.)
But the temporary unblocking of many kilometers of traffic jams finally changed the gray, unattractive picture of local stores. Bright traditional citrus fruits were added to potatoes, carrots, and beets.
But the quality of imports is terrible in some places. Boxes of frozen and sometimes half-rotten tangerines line the sales floors of supermarkets or bazaars. It’s strange, but there are also quality products.
Fragrant citrus fruits arrive by sea, and then by car from Poland, Bulgaria, Romania are sent to residents of Ukrainian cities and villages. Constant troubles at the border, starting in the fall of 2022, ended as expected: distortions in the domestic food market.
A kilogram of tangerines can be purchased at a price of 50 to 100 UAH (product from Spain). The closer to the front line, the higher the prices. In the Sumy region, for example, the average price of tangerines is 72–78 UAH/kg.
Most metropolitan stores offer regular promotions. The chains state that the number of consumers has decreased, the average bill is not increasing, therefore, we need to think about how to revive trade at least a little.
Citrus fruits are unlikely to be in special demand in January-February. So, given the long period of stay of products at the border and the need to earn money, there are two likely scenarios.
First: by analogy with watermelons, which were sold and sold in the summer of 2023, but not enough. And then these so-called Kherson mountains disappeared somewhere. (People in the know say it goes to landfills.)
Second: for as long as possible, stores will change price tags and give customers the opportunity to rummage through imported remnants.
Bananas after a tour in trucks with temperature violations also don’t look ideal. Price - about 60 UAH/kg. The assortment of fruits is diluted with grapes, kiwi, papaya, pineapples (from 150 to 300 UAH per piece).
Bananas were imported somewhere at the 2022 level in terms of volumes, but instead of $140 million they spent 183 million on the purchase. Citrus fruits were imported 202 thousand tons for $206 million versus 210 thousand tons for 183 million.
Eggplants - 150 UAH/kg, zucchini - 140, sweet peppers can be bought in the range of 150-200+ UAH. Iceberg lettuce - 189 UAH/kg. Broccoli offers itself at the highest price - 230 UAH/kg. Cauliflower – 90 UAH/kg.
Peking cabbage is pleasing to the eye - 20–23 UAH/kg. Young cabbage - 30 UAH, white cabbage - 12 UAH/kg.
Potatoes are a potential record holder
If we're talking about cabbage, then a few words about borscht. The miracle did not happen, despite the government's promise of relatively stable prices. The main components of the popular dish began to rise in price right with the beginning of the border blockade. During November-December, each item increased in price.
Reference:
In 2023, 21.2 million tons of potatoes were harvested, tomatoes - 1.4 million, cabbage - 1.3 million, onions - 877 thousand, carrots - 810 thousand, beets - 766 thousand, cucumbers - 681 thousand tons. .
So, there are no more potatoes for 10, there are 30 UAH each. Now, however, the price tag indicates the variety and for which dishes it is best to use it.
By the way, there is an opinion among market participants that potatoes in 2024 may repeat the fate of onions, from which farmers and entrepreneurs sought to earn big money in the summer of 2023.
Although the cheap bow has already run out. The price as of the end of December is 15 UAH/kg. Beets for 16, although a few weeks ago it was 7 UAH/kg. Carrots are still holding - 10-12 UAH/kg.
Individuals who made up the competition sit at home with the onset of cold weather.
According to various estimates, a kilogram of a single borscht ingredient in the spring can reach 40 UAH or more. Potatoes are primarily at risk. But some brave souls are convinced that the onion, which was golden last year, will also show its worth. There are also bets on carrots, because stocks of quality products in storage facilities are gradually decreasing.
Therefore, there is only one conclusion: you love borscht, there are no stocks, so prepare money, because in the new year you will have to pay in a new way.
Bread is becoming more expensive, unlike flour
It makes you wonder: how can bread become more expensive when flour prices fall? However, bakers have their own justification: prices for 2nd class wheat remain high because there is not enough high-quality wheat for baking. In addition, traditionally the cost of bread is influenced by energy and fuel prices. Plus taxes, plus salaries.
Let us remind you that in 2022, one of the most popular types of bread increased in price by 7 UAH. Throughout 2021, it increased in price by approximately 5 UAH. In 2023, for wheat bread made from 1st grade flour, you had to pay an additional 2.5 UAH.
Price monitoring in the regions indicates that premium wheat flour bread now costs 35.32 UAH/kg. Bread made from 1st grade flour - 31.03 UAH/kg. The price for rye-wheat bread has not changed and is 30.99 UAH/kg. A loaf can be bought for 42.12 UAH/kg.
Bakers look to tomorrow with longing, because the main agricultural department has stated in plain text that the cost of wheat and rye flour will rise. The reason: less wheat was sown for next year’s harvest - only 4 million hectares. It’s a strange argument, because for the 2023 winter harvest there were also four and a half, but they collected 22 million tons.
Important: farmers refuse to sow because exporting is difficult.
Under retail control
The consumer becomes very sensitive to the issue of price. Therefore, retail chains will try to keep prices on a short leash. It is likely that 2024 will be the season of triumph for retail trade.
Sellers have all the leverage. Friendly dialogue with authorities, ability to lobby interests, dictate terms of cooperation to food industry workers. The prices for social products were also given to the networks.
There is also an option called private label. Given the circumstances, Ukrainians choose these brands because of their low cost. Companies assessing the consumer market estimate that as of the second half of 2023, private brands accounted for 36% of sales (in 2021 - 33%).
Retail needs to make money, so the issue of price will be under control 24/7. Stores can instantly respond to the mood of visitors. Add to this the ingenuity of the workers: the cost of baguettes baked in their own bakery, which used to be 300 grams, is now 210, but the price is stable.
Unfortunately, prices will continue to rise. No one has yet canceled inflation, changes in electricity tariffs always happen unexpectedly, fuel prices rise precisely at the moment when it is necessary to purchase a batch of gasoline. Do you keep an eye on prices?
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Despite loud statements that farmers, against the backdrop of low grain prices, will now direct all financial flows and efforts to livestock farming, no one promises cheap chickens, ducks, piglets.
Over the year, meat has increased significantly in price: beef - from 203 to 238 UAH/kg on average in the country. Pork - from 168.5 to 196 UAH, poultry (carcass) - from 81.29 to 91.27 UAH/kg.
A strange detail: prices for chicken fillet do not increase much, but at the end of December ordinary offal products began to add pennies. Necks are already offered at 50 UAH/kg, although at the beginning of December they were 30, chicken heart - 80, liver - 100 UAH.
Unfortunately, we only dream of price stability. In January-February and in the future the situation will only get worse. Almost everything will become more expensive: some goods due to seasonality, others due to conflicts at the border. Still others - just for the sake of company. Fourth, because the owners of processing enterprises will actively pave the way to the EU. Fifth, because disappointed farmers will look for new niches for making money.
