With the onset of winter 2024/2025, Ukraine will face a serious challenge in the energy supply sector. The losses caused by the full-scale invasion significantly complicated the situation, reducing the country's power generation potential.
Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios
According to the head of the board of NEC Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky, Ukrainian power engineers are considering several scenarios for the passage of the winter period, and all of them involve significant difficulties.
Vladimir Kudritsky said that the real situation will depend on many factors, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure.
The pessimistic scenario assumes the continuation of massive shelling, which will disable certain energy facilities. In such a case, there will be less generation available in the winter than provided for in the baseline, leading to significant constraints on electricity supply.
The optimistic scenario implies that there will be no or few successful enemy attacks, which will allow more energy facilities to be restored. In this case, power outages will be less frequent.
Expected electricity shortage
However, even under an optimistic scenario, Ukraine will still face a large electricity shortage. The restoration of generation to the level of 200-250 MW (7.1% of the required demand of 3.5 GW) is a significant achievement, but this is not enough to fully cover the needs.
YASNO CEO Sergei Kovalenko warns that the electricity shortage this winter could reach 35%. Ukraine has lost more than 40 GW of generation capacity, threatening stable energy supplies during the winter months. Accordingly, Ukrainians can expect to receive electricity only for 5-6 hours a day. This situation requires all energy market participants and consumers to actively prepare and develop alternative action plans.
Since the start of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian energy system has faced three main phases of destruction:
- The first phase is the loss of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and part of the wind and solar generation due to the occupation of the territory.
- The second phase is shelling of transformer nodes and distribution networks aimed at destroying the electricity distribution system.
- The third phase is attacks on thermal and hydropower, which led to the loss of 9 GW of generation.
If Ukraine managed to return the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to the energy system, the restrictions would be much less. However, without this station, blackout schedules will remain in effect for at least two winters.
Losses of generation capacity have a direct impact on the size of the electricity shortage. The absence of shunting generation, which helped compensate for peak load, makes the situation even more difficult.
Overcoming energy shortages will require comprehensive actions:
— Reduced consumption: active measures for energy saving and self-limitation of consumption by both household consumers and businesses.
— development of alternative energy sources: investments in solar energy, wind generation and other renewable sources can provide additional generation volumes.
— restoration of damaged infrastructure: accelerated repairs and restoration of damaged energy facilities will help increase domestic generation capacity.
— Technical upgrade of the power system: Investments in the modernization of energy infrastructure, in particular transformers and transmission lines, will increase import capacity and energy distribution efficiency.
The security of Ukraine's energy system is under threat due to a shortage of air defense systems
Ukraine's energy security is under serious threat in the face of the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion. One of the key challenges hampering the country's ability to protect its critical infrastructure is the acute shortage of air defense (air defense) missiles, particularly interceptor missiles. DTEK Executive Director Dmitry Sakharuk stated this in an interview with the Kyiv Post.
A key aspect of Ukraine's defense in the face of Russian missile attacks is the ability to respond appropriately to threats and protect power grid assets. According to Sakharuk, for every interceptor missile Ukraine has for defense, Russia has 5 to 6 missiles to launch at Ukraine. This creates an unequal playing field and highlights the need to increase the number of air defense systems.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War note that Russia's campaign of air strikes on the Ukrainian power grid has significantly limited Ukraine's electricity production capacity. Using the air defense deficit to maximize damage to energy capacity is fraught with the stability of energy supply in the country.
Given the limited capabilities of its own air defense system, Ukraine depends on international support to ensure the security of its energy infrastructure. In particular, this concerns the supply of modern air defense systems from Western partners, which can significantly increase Ukraine’s security against shelling and ensure stability of energy supply.
Import opportunities as a path to stabilization
As Sergei Kovalenko noted, importing electricity from Europe plays a key role in meeting the electricity needs of Ukrainians. Now the technical possibility of importing is 1.7 GW, but it is expected that this capacity will increase to 2.5 GW by the beginning of the heating season. This will cover part of the deficit and reduce risks to the stability of the energy system.
In this context, cooperation with the European Union and neighboring countries is of particular importance. Attracting additional imports, sharing experience and technology, and financial support are key factors for overcoming energy challenges.
However, even taking into account import opportunities, energy shortages remain a serious problem.
Recommendations for businesses and citizens
Businesses and citizens need to carefully prepare for possible power outages at the beginning of the winter period.
For businesses, this means developing outage plans, installing off-grid power supplies, and optimizing work processes.
In the face of possible power outages, it is important for citizens to take care in advance of the availability of alternative energy sources, portable chargers and supplies of necessary food and water.
In particular, it is recommended to purchase:
— Batteries and accumulators of various formats to ensure the operation of basic household appliances and lighting.
— generators that can become a reliable source of energy for enterprises and individual households.
— solar panels and inverters for the use of renewable energy sources.
In addition, the issue of energy efficiency remains relevant. Reducing electricity consumption through the implementation of energy efficient technologies and measures can help reduce the load on the energy system and reduce the risks of shortages.
Preparing for the winter of 2024/2025 requires active action from Ukraine at all levels - from the government to every citizen. Using all available resources, including importing electricity, reducing consumption and developing alternative sources will help the country ensure energy security and minimize the impact of shortages on the daily lives of Ukrainians.
