Dollar at 54: what will happen to the currency in Ukraine in the coming years

The global economy will continue to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, analysts predict

According to the baseline forecast, the global economy will continue to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, maintaining the same pace as in 2023.

As reported in the IMF World Economic Outlook report, from 2025 the exchange rate of the American currency will gradually increase. In 2027, it will cross the 50 hryvnia mark, and by the end of this year it will grow to 41 hryvnia.

The average annual exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar, according to the report, will be:

• 2024 – 41.0 UAH/USD;
• 2025 – 45.8 UAH/USD;
• 2026 – 48.6 UAH/USD;
• 2027 – 50.4 UAH/dollar;
• 2028 – 52.1 UAH/USD;
• 2029 – 54.1 UAH/USD.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the average dollar exchange rate in banks is 40.40 UAH (purchase) and 40.85 UAH (sale). At the same time, the official NBU exchange rate is UAH 40.53.

A slight acceleration in advanced economies - where growth is expected to increase from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 - will be offset by a moderate slowdown in emerging markets and economies growing from 4.3 % in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 and 2025. The forecast for global growth five years from now is 3.1%, the lowest in decades.

Global inflation is projected to gradually decline from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets earlier than emerging markets and emerging economies. Core inflation is generally expected to decline gradually.

The global economy has proven remarkably resilient, despite major interest rate hikes by central banks to restore price stability. Chapter two explains that changes in the mortgage and housing markets during the pre-pandemic decade of low interest rates mitigated the short-term impact of rising rates. The third chapter focuses on the medium term and shows that the decline in projected per capita productivity growth is due, in part, to persistent structural frictions that impede the movement of capital and labor to productive enterprises. The fourth section further highlights how lackluster growth prospects in China and other major emerging markets will impact trading partners.