According to the head of the Chernigov OVA, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, if desired, can prepare for a second attack on the region in the near future. Experts estimate that such a maneuver will require up to 200 thousand soldiers. The question now being considered is whether the Kremlin has sufficient resources to carry out a second offensive from the north.
Russia is capable of forming a sufficient contingent for a second offensive on the Chernigov region. However, whether they will take such a step remains questionable. This opinion was expressed by the head of the Chernigov Regional Police Department, Vyacheslav Chaus, answering a question from journalists.
“They can do it very quickly. Whether they will do it or not depends on how hard we work in terms of building up fortifications. They see everything, fly wherever they can, someone is driving somewhere, we do not exclude this. They understand the situation, that we are strengthening fortification. The fortification of 2023 relative to the fortification of 2022 is a completely different level. Now we will further strengthen this aspect. The more we do this, the less likely it is that the enemy will again enter the territory of the Chernihiv region,” Chaus said.
According to him, in 2023, 363 million hryvnia were allocated from the state budget reserve fund for the construction of military, engineering and fortification structures, of which 217 million hryvnia were used.
Mobilize up to half a million fighters
According to military expert Dmitry Snegirev, any scenarios for the development of military operations cannot be ruled out. However, there is no reason yet to say that a redeployment of troops has been recorded in the Chernigov direction or that groupings are being formed, which would indicate the intention of the Russian Armed Forces to repeat the offensive.
“All scenarios are taken into account by the Ukrainian military. It is no coincidence that additional fortifications are being created and measures are being taken to strengthen this area in the event of a possible breakthrough by the occupying forces. Now the second and third lines of defense are being introduced, “dragon teeth” are being installed, and the number of minefields has been increased, which make it impossible for ground forces to break through. Preventive measures are carried out constantly,” Snegirev tells Focus .
If Ukraine agrees to come to the negotiating table to “freeze” hostilities, this will give the Russians the opportunity to build up weapons and repeat the offensive in 3-5 years.
Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Oleg Zhdanov adds that the Russian Armed Forces are capable of repeating an offensive from the northern direction, as was the case at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, only subject to an operational pause. If Ukraine agrees to come to the negotiating table to “freeze” hostilities, this will give the Russians the opportunity to build up weapons and repeat the offensive in 3-5 years.
Now the Russian Armed Forces are experiencing problems with the replenishment of personnel along the entire front line, which is 1,200 km long. Therefore, it makes no sense to say that Russian troops are capable of quickly forming a strike force for a second invasion of the Chernigov region.
It will not be possible now to repeat the scenario when 40 thousand Russian troops reached almost Kiev without encountering resistance along the way due to the absence of our troops.
“Our border - Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov regions - stretches for a thousand kilometers. Approximately 20 thousand Russian troops are stationed in this area throughout the year. From time to time they bring there cadets of the Special Forces of the Russian Armed Forces and train in sabotage and reconnaissance activities. However, it will not be possible to repeat the scenario when 40 thousand Russian troops reached almost Kyiv without encountering resistance along the way due to the absence of our troops. On these sections of the front, we are building engineering structures and mines day and night - this is a huge obstacle for the troops,” Zhdanov tells Focus .
The expert adds that throughout the border area the Russians are waging a low-intensity war: they are shelling our territory with the help of aviation and artillery and carrying out sabotage and reconnaissance activities. The only goal of such actions is to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from transferring troops to other directions, strengthening the front.
Now, according to the expert, there are about 430-450 thousand occupiers on the territory of Ukraine. Of these, 200-250 thousand are at zero. In order to open a second front and organize offensive operations in the Chernigov direction, according to Zhdanov, the Russian Armed Forces would need to mobilize approximately 200 thousand more fighters. And to restore the offensive capabilities of the army along the entire front line - half a million. However, in this case, another problem arises - how to arm the conscripts.
“The Russian Armed Forces do not have offensive capabilities. I'm talking about tactical level actions. Offensive capability is measured by operations from the operational-tactical level to strategic operations. To restore potential, up to half a million fighters need to be called up. But they need to be armed. No matter how propaganda paints the story that the Russian Federation has transferred the economy to a war footing, not everything is so simple. The number of tanks they can renew is not that large. There are also problems with aviation. Even if they could mobilize half a million, these would be marching companies, like in 1941,” adds Zhdanov.
Total mobilization
Experts note that even if the Russians intend to carry out a large-scale mobilization after the presidential elections, troops will be focused on fulfilling Putin’s political demand to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the administrative borders. The RF Armed Forces must complete this task at least before the elections, which will take place in the spring of 2024. This must be done so that the head of the Kremlin appears before his electorate as a winner, and not an outsider. However, the military in the Russian Federation understands that there are no resources to go beyond the planned plan. For this reason, there are periodic calls from the Kremlin to sit down at the negotiating table.
“They understand that under such conditions as they are, they will not procrastinate the war. Yes, they can carry out a total mobilization after the elections in order to hold the front. We admit this, but even in this case, the main efforts will be aimed at fulfilling the political task,” says Zhdanov.
According to the expert, the Russian Armed Forces will still try to resume the front along the Dnieper and expand it in the north from Svatovo, Lugansk region to Energodar . The military-political leadership of the country does not intend to cede the captured Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, despite the fact that even now the troops cannot strengthen the Kherson direction and dislodge the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the bridgehead on the left bank.
“ Putin’s political ambitions say that the priority is Avdievka. But look at Marinka: they reached the western borders and were blown away. They began to storm Bakhmut, rushing to Konstantinovka, but today - two brigades were removed from the Bakhmut direction and transferred to Avdeevskoye. Therefore, there is nowhere to take troops from. Although military registration and enlistment offices provide up to 30 thousand mobilized per month,” Zhdanov sums up.
Let us remind you that on January 2, the Russian Armed Forces made another attempt to deplete Ukrainian air defense by launching dozens of air targets across the territory of Ukraine. Experts believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to attack factories for the production of UAVs and missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation, as well as ammunition depots, in order to stop massive attacks from Russia.
Focus also noted that during the massive shelling on December 29, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukraine with almost all types of long-range weapons, except for Caliber. According to experts, the reason is that the Russians are afraid to take ships to sea.
