Russia may begin shelling the energy sector again in the fall. Does the aggressor have the capabilities for massive attacks, how many missiles and suicide bombers does the Russian Federation produce - below in the material from RBC-Ukraine.
Government officials are increasingly suggesting that the Russians will start hitting the energy sector again this fall. The previous attempt to plunge Ukrainians into darkness and cold largely failed. After the peak period of attacks in December last year, there was more and more light in our homes, despite the continued shelling. In the end, the Russians abandoned the idea in March - its missile arsenal was on the verge of depletion.
Massive shelling stopped for two months. However, already in May, the enemy began a new air campaign, choosing as a priority target the locations of military personnel and equipment intended for the Ukrainian offensive. In the first month, as RBC-Ukraine calculated, the Russians attacked Ukraine with 198 missiles. And from mid-July they began to systematically destroy the port infrastructure.
It seems that the next plan is not very effective - it does not greatly affect the course of hostilities. Therefore, after failures at the front, the enemy may likely try to repeat last year’s plan in order to suppress the resistance of the Ukrainians.
Stockpiles and production of Russian missiles
According to data provided to RBC-Ukraine by the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, Moscow now has about 585 missiles that fire at a distance of more than 500 kilometers and with which the enemy most often attacks different regions of Ukraine. This is approximately 270 units of Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles, about 75 Kinzhals, approximately 140 Caliber missiles, as well as about 100 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 missiles with warheads. In addition, the aggressor may have approximately 150 more old Kh-22 missiles in stock.
Despite the expectations of the Ukrainians, since the beginning of spring Russia has been able not only to begin accumulating missiles, but also to increase their production. As of mid-summer of this year, the enemy has already managed to produce many times more missile weapons than in the pre-war period. In August, the Russians want to launch a total of 118 Kinzhal, Iskander-M, Iskander-K, Kalibr, Kh-101 and modified Kh-22 (Kh-32) missiles.
“In addition to the six Kinzhals, the Russians planned to produce a total of 30 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr missiles, and about 40 X-101s in August. In addition, they are improving the Kh-22 cruise missiles; the redesigned samples have a new designation - Kh-32. According to our data, the Russians can supply no more than 10 units of such modernized missiles per month,” Skibitsky said. However, he clarified that the actual production of some rocket models is lagging behind their plans.
Current production volumes still do not allow the Russians to maintain the same intensity of attacks as they did in May and fire 200 missiles for several months in a row. Sooner or later their own arsenal will reach zero. Due to limited supplies and production of certain types of missiles, the enemy was forced to adjust their attack tactics, Skibitsky says. This includes alternating different classes of missiles, a more careful selection of targets, and a much more careful determination of flight routes for missiles and UAVs to bypass our air defense system. And plus, the aggressor began to make decisions about striking more quickly.
Skibitsky explains: when the enemy receives information about the need to urgently hit a target, then more accurate high-speed missiles are used, which are more difficult for our Air Defense units to shoot down - as was the case, for example, on August 19 in Chernigov. Then the aggressor fired an Iskander-K cruise missile at the city center, where an exhibition of drones was taking place at that time.
“Iskander missile brigades are located along the entire border - in the Rostov, Kursk, Belgorod regions, as well as in our occupied territories, in particular in Crimea. Accordingly, those of our regions and areas that are closer to the front line and the Ukrainian-Russian border are under threat, because the time for these missiles to approach the target is a matter of minutes. It is very difficult to quickly respond to their use,” Skibitsky clarified.
For the same reasons, since May the aggressor began to use Daggers more often - when it is necessary either suddenly or with a higher probability to hit an object important for Moscow. True, practice shows: even if this “pride” of the Russian military-industrial complex is not shot down in flight, it still does not guarantee an accurate hit on a specific target.
Another distinctive feature of the summer attacks is the relatively smaller use of the Kh-101. This is explained primarily by savings, says Skibitsky: it is difficult for the Russians to fulfill the production plan for these missiles - 40 units per month - due to a shortage of foreign components, and their reserves are already quite small. The second reason is that the aggressor is trying to stockpile these missiles, since they are considered more accurate and effective when compared, for example, with the Kh-555, Kh-22 or even Kalibra cruise missiles, which we successfully shoot down.
In the end, all these trends together may indicate not only that the enemy is saving missiles, but also an attempt to accumulate them for the next air campaign, which may target our energy sector. These attacks may begin in late September or October.
The enemy is preparing for autumn
This version may be supported by the fact that the Russians are already conducting exploration of our energy facilities. According to Skibitsky, the enemy is now looking for their vulnerabilities and the location of air defense systems in order to create optimal routes for launches.
We saw something similar during the attack from Saturday to Sunday, August 27: the launch of several missiles that circled almost the entire country was most likely intended to study future routes.
The Main Intelligence Directorate assumes that the enemy’s tactics and approach when shelling energy will depend on how correctly he identifies the objects that are critical to us. This can be as many as 1-3 hits aimed at one object to completely destroy it. So is a massive strike with different types of weapons - drones and missiles.
“However, such massive attacks as happened last October, November, December, when they fired 70-100 missiles at the same time, most likely, will no longer happen. The Russians realize that they may not achieve their goal, but will only deplete their reserves, as happened last year,” Skibitsky added.
Another probable shelling pattern could be a combined salvo - the launch of 10-30 different missiles plus a significantly larger number of suicide bombers. One of the attacks that the enemy launched in August shows that such tactics, unfortunately, allow some enemy targets to bypass our air defenses. Last season, substations, a critical element of the power grid, suffered the most from drones. The speaker of the Air Force Command, Colonel Yuri Ignat, also believes that in the event of shelling of the energy sector, the enemy will focus on the “martyrs.”
“We know that the Russians are increasing their missile production. However, this is still not enough to maintain the same intensity of strikes as it was last fall and winter - weekly, every 10-14 days, 70-100 missiles for five months. Therefore, in my opinion, in the event of new attacks on the energy sector, the enemy will use attack UAVs more,” Ignat said.
The aggressor has already begun working to establish a powerful production of such drones. In June, the White House announced that, with the help of Iran, Russia wants to build a plant in Tatarstan to produce suicide bombs, which should be operational early next year. However, according to our military intelligence, Moscow is already using kamikaze drones assembled in Russia against Ukraine.
“After the latest attacks by the suicide bombers, we found elements in them indicating that the final stage of assembly of these UAVs is already taking place on Russian territory. This is particularly evidenced by the increase in the number of Russian parts in drones. And besides, we have the aggressor’s plans, which provide for an increase in the production of “shaheds” on the territory of the Russian Federation. At the same time, during one of the Russian military-industrial complex exhibitions, it was stated that Moscow wants to master approximately 60 UAVs of various modifications by 2030,” Skibitsky said.
Preliminary data from the Main Intelligence Directorate indicate that the enemy planned to produce 1,300 units of the so-called “Geranium-2”, that is, “shaheds”, in the second half of this year. It is planned to use components of both foreign and domestic production for them. However, in reality, Russia today is not capable of producing such a number of UAVs, Skibitsky noted. According to him, the Main Intelligence Directorate is now collecting data on the actual capacity of the production deployed by the enemy, where exactly they assemble these drones and which enterprises on the territory of the aggressor state are involved in the supply of parts.
Military intelligence says that the success of the enemy’s plans will depend on the effectiveness of sanctions and “kinetic impact” on facilities involved in the production of “shaheeds” in the Russian Federation.
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Currently, discussions are already underway in expert circles about what this heating season will be like - more difficult, easier or the same as last year. There is no clear answer yet.
They tried to actively restore our energy system in the fall and summer. However, probably, due to the damage caused to it, it will still have less power at the beginning of the heating season than at the start of the previous one. On the other hand, our power engineers already have unwanted but successful experience in how to do the incredible and repair damage in extreme conditions.
Another important factor: from the leaked Pentagon documents, it became known about the gradual depletion of anti-aircraft missiles to the S-300 and BUK-M1 - the main air defense systems covering the Ukrainian sky. However, they are being replaced by more modern Western complexes, some of which are transferred non-publicly. Air Force Commander Nikolai Oleshchuk said that one NASAMS of 5-12 launchers can replace five S-300 air defense systems.
Western partners also announced the transfer to Ukraine of a number of systems, which, in terms of tactical and technical characteristics, can become a good alternative to BUKs (in particular, IRIS-T SLS). In addition, at the beginning of the year, information appeared that Ukraine plans (or has already begun) to adapt these Soviet complexes for use with foreign anti-aircraft missiles. That is, one way or another, our air defense will be more prepared for potential massive attacks.
