The other day, a series of high-profile dismissals and appointments took place at the top of the army - heads rolled in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the General Staff, and some troops and groups. What was the real reason for the resignation of Zaluzhny and everyone whose names we saw in the presidential decrees? There are many versions.
From Zelensky’s jealousy of the popularity of the commander-in-chief and other military men and accusations that Zaluzhny is increasingly turning into a politician, to Podolyak’s explanations that the decision to update the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is due to “the need to reconsider combat tactics, which did not fully ensure the desired result in 2023, and prevent stagnation at the front.” Which, by the way, has already been stated by everyone except the power team.
No one knows how these events will respond – in favor or vice versa. However, it is clear that it will be on the front lines that will deal with their consequences. “For the military, the fate is simple – to correct the mistakes of politicians with their lives,” Armed Forces of Ukraine officer Alexey Petrov wrote on Facebook the other day.
Journalists from the FACTS publication talked about the “reboot” of the Defense Forces and other topics with the head of the expert group of the Bureau of Policy Analysis, political scientist, political strategist and publicist Viktor Bobyrenko.
– Mr. Victor, responsibility for large-scale personnel changes in the army lies personally with Zelensky. Why do you think he did this right now, when the situation at the front is extremely difficult, when the initiative is in the hands of the Russians, and time is working against us? In your opinion, does Bankova realize that they have launched many highly complex processes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the consequences of which cannot be imagined at all?
“I’m more than sure that no one there is aware of anything.”
Many experts attribute Zaluzhny’s resignation to any number of reasons - they did not agree on the vision of the war, strategy, tactics, or something else. For me it's obviously different. That Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelensky is a narcissist. With all the ensuing problems for us.
The method of managing a narcissist is simple: you need to praise him, applaud him and not praise those he doesn’t like. That is, give him information in the way he wants to hear it.
Zelensky has been jealous for a long time and very much of the fame, authority and people's love for Zaluzhny. The roots go somewhere by the fall of 2022, after the liberation of Kherson. On December 19, in an interview with Ukrayinska Pravda, NSDC Secretary Danilov for the first time publicly warned Zaluzhny against future political temptations: “Given the status in which he now finds himself, the number of people who have a great desire to take advantage of this status will grow exponentially. This is very important for Valery Fedorovich, for his future, so that he means and understands this.”
And then we heard Zelensky talking about Headquarters in his next video: “Danilov, Shmygal, Kuleba, Budanov, Syrsky and the commander-in-chief were present there.” That is, he called everyone by last name, but Zaluzhny by position; it was difficult for him to even name his last name. When this happened the first time, I thought: “Well, it happens.” However, when I heard this a second or third time, I concluded that a black cat had run between them.
After this, Zelensky’s rating began to slide a little, but the rating of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Zaluzhny did not change. I'll give you my insider information if you want. On Bankova it became known that Zaluzhny spoke in his circle about Zelensky, that he was unprofessional, took everything painfully, was jealous and rude, that he allowed himself to “poke” Zaluzhny at Headquarters like “Valera, shut up while smart people talk,” and that in among the generals they were also a little dismissive of Zelensky.
Remember how in the spring of 2020, then-Prime Minister Goncharuk took off due to the fact that in January a recording of his conversation was made public, where he also expressed an unkind opinion about the greatest? Zelensky was allowed to listen to it. I think that Ermak did this in order to drown Goncharuk and install his protégé Shmygal.
The farther, the more the cat ran between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. Actually, everyone understood how it was supposed to end.
That's the bad thing. I argue that Zelensky’s instinct of self-preservation is lower than his jealousy of Zaluzhny. This happens in families when a very jealous man or woman, who has no logic at all, throws hysterics in public - in front of children, in front of godfathers, in front of neighbors. It’s especially unpleasant when they take children hostage and friends as witnesses. "Who are you for? But look what he really is like.” At the same time, they do not understand that such scenes ruin the family’s reputation.
So it is here. Zelensky doesn’t even look at the fact that he is ruining his reputation and ratings. Even from a banal point of view. We have a very difficult situation near Avdeevka. Most likely, you will have to leave this city, as before from Bakhmut. We have already done everything we could there - we filled a carriage with a cart of Muscovites. You can now leave these positions and move on to new ones. And remove Zaluzhny just after that. “Well, I couldn’t handle it, so I’m resigning from my position.” But Zelensky hastened to do this earlier. That is, from both a military and media point of view, he did everything wrong.
In addition, you need to know the Ukrainian mentality. For us, justice is higher than law. Yes, Zelensky has the right, on the recommendation of Umerov, to remove Zaluzhny, Chief of the General Staff Shaptala, heads of departments, and so on. But is this fair? No. Because there seems to be nothing to shoot for. Zaluzhny has only victories behind him. But, however, the resignation occurred. And for Ukrainians now Zaluzhny is not just a political figure, not only one of the best military leaders in all of history, but also undeservedly removed for this.
Of course, this is a blow to Zelensky’s rating. Logically, this is a shot in the foot. But he couldn't help but do it.
Another small digression. Zelensky has a professional deformation because he has been an artist all his life. According to him, he has been on stage since he was 14 years old. He played in KVN, acted in films, and performed at concerts. Therefore, for him “the whole world is a theater,” as Shakespeare said. Or as in Herman’s aria from the opera “The Queen of Spades”: “What is our life? A game".
In Zelensky’s imagination, the world is structured like this: there is a hall, people are sitting in the hall who should applaud him as the best actor. Of course, there is also the production director Ermak, there are several screenwriters, there is the prompter Podolyak, who suggests something from the prompter’s booth, there are extras - a troupe, an orchestra, a choir, and there are set designers. And only Zelensky is the soloist on stage.
They even pushed aside a minor character like Arestovich once he hit a million subscribers on YouTube. Because even Arestovich cannot even have a supporting role. And here Zaluzhny sticks out, who is applauded longer, louder, better than Zelensky (that’s exactly how he saw it), whom the audience loves more. Zelensky could not survive this. Therefore, from all points of view (from the state, from the personal, that is, retaining power later), removing Zaluzhny is a bad option. But Zelensky went for it.
His desire coincided with Ermak’s desire. As I already said, he is the production director in our theater. For Ermak Zaluzhny, the problem is from a different point of view. Ermak controls parliament through Stefanchuk and Arakhamia, controls Shmygal, that is, the entire government, and through Tatarov, almost all law enforcement agencies. And it has no control over the Armed Forces of Ukraine at all. That is, for him Zaluzhny is also an obstacle. But the obstacle is completely different - not in terms of fame and applause, but in terms of carrying out activities, since Ermak wants to control everything in Ukraine.
Therefore, it came together here - both are not satisfied with Zaluzhny. But if for Zelensky Zaluzhny is the cause of jealousy, then Ermak’s instinct of self-preservation is also weaker than the thirst for power. That is, they must say that both do not realize that they removed a person, due to whose absence not only the state of Ukraine, but also they personally could lose. However, they could not restrain themselves.
– They convince us that normal processes have taken place, they say that everything has been done to make it even better. However, on social networks the president’s personnel decisions have already been called a pogrom of the Ukrainian army. The current government has staged dangerous political games. Will she be able to withstand them herself? Will this shot in the leg be fatal for her and for us too?
– The consequences for us, of course, could be catastrophic.
For Ermak, it is important to manage everything. And then the worst thing that can happen is when he, relatively speaking, begins to draw arrows on the map, that is, to manage the front, and take charge of personnel right up to the battalion commanders - fire those who are there and install his own. So that we don’t end up with Bezuglaya and Ermak planning the war. There is such a fear.
Almost always, the intervention of politicians in war leads to disaster. There are a lot of historical examples.
At Austerlitz, two emperors, Austrian and Russian, wanted to command, and Napoleon easily defeated them. At least all the Wehrmacht generals said that Hitler's intervention led to many defeats. Soviet commanders said the same thing about Stalin.
Although, on the other hand, this is an excuse. What didn't we do? Because politicians interfered. But very often this is actually the case.
First of all, politicians interfere in personnel changes, secondly in the situation on the front line. For example, in the Avdeevka fortress we are semi-surrounded, we can no longer put as much Russian as before, it is very difficult to transport ammunition there. Perhaps it's time to move on to better positions.
But how will Zelensky now allow our army to leave? He will say: “Keep at any cost.” And this is the unjustified blood of our soldiers. We will recapture the territory later. There are no people or housing there anymore - there is nothing to protect, only stones. However, in the meantime, Zelensky now needs to prove something, including to himself. Another precedent will occur when the army will be in great pain due to the influence of ambitious politicians.
Zelensky demands from Syrsky such a plan in order to see the dynamics at the front, so that there is no stagnation, as he said. That is, like “plan an attack.” What to plan an offensive with? Where are the F-16s, where are the new tanks, where are the shells? We have a catastrophic shortage of everything. But today politics interferes with military planning and demands that we seize the strategic initiative from the enemy and attack.
Is it necessary to attack? There's a cool story. On May 1, 1942, Stalin set the task of “ensuring that 1942 becomes the year of the final defeat of the Nazi troops.” And a month later, the Red Army fell into a cauldron near Barvenkov, a village in the Kharkov region. According to the Wehrmacht, the losses of the Soviet army amounted to 239 thousand soldiers.
We can see the same situation. Well, I personally don’t care whether Zelensky or Ermak’s relationship with power works out or doesn’t work out. But Ukraine may suffer. We are all hostages of our politicians.
In principle, I still remain optimistic about the end of the war - we will win. However, now I consider Victory a more distant prospect. That is, we will still go through a lot of blood, sweat, tears and, possibly, temporary losses of territory and defeats. Precisely because our politicians have dominated the military, which is absolutely forbidden to do during a war.
– Newly appointed people need time. Did Zelensky thus create ideal conditions for the Kremlin Fuhrer to come up with something again? Because it would be a sin for him not to take advantage of such a situation. Don't you have the feeling that we are standing microns from the abyss?
- Yes. We have taken a big step towards the abyss.
16 top-level generals who worked as a team and learned to prepare strategic, defensive and offensive operations together were fired. Such experience is acquired over many years. Moreover, it was this group of generals who did not follow the lead of politicians just in January-February 2022, dispersed troops in advance, thanks to which the enemy did not bomb airfields, warehouses, and military units in their base areas. They didn't let me do this. Actually, they saved the country in the first month of the war.
Why is Zaluzhny more than a historical figure for Ukrainians? He is already on a par with Svyatoslav the Brave, Konstantin Ostrogsky, Bogdan Khmelnitsky, Ivan Vygovsky, Pyotr Bolbochan, Roman Shukhevych.
He can also be put on a par with the great commanders. Who fought with the Russians? Napoleon. He had three great victories over them - Austerlitz, Friedland and Borodino (although the Russians consider that battle their victory). And Zaluzhny has his own three victories: Kiev region - Chernihiv region - Sumy region in April 2022, in September - the lightning destruction of Russians in the Kharkov region, in November - the liberation of Kherson.
He is reproached for the supposedly unsuccessful offensive last summer. But, in my opinion, it was successful. We killed a lot of Russians, broke through the so-called Surovikin line, we have success in destroying the enemy’s naval forces and - most importantly! - showed an operational offensive without an advantage in the air and manpower. These achievements cannot be undone. This is already history.
Now Zaluzhny will not have defeats. Only Syrsky can have them.
And two more points. Just imagine: Syrsky, in the eyes of the colonels and lieutenant colonels who are preparing some documents, plans, etc. at the General Staff, will be a kind of usurper, because he came to the place of the hero. He will definitely not be treated very well. This is the first.
Second. Syrsky needs to win such a victory in order to receive the same glory that Zaluzhny has. And this is simply unthinkable. Why? Because if there is a defeat (we surrender Avdeevka), everyone will say: “Well, what did we expect?” Or later, even if he were victorious: “If Zaluzhny had been there, not only would we have won here, we would have already driven Putin beyond Mozhaisk.”
– You won’t envy Syrsky.
- Yes. And the reason for this story is banal - the president’s narcissism.
Moreover, these mass layoffs will cause a new circle of tension with the West. Now in the States, Germany, Britain, France and other large countries they call the military on the carpet and demand explanations on the topic “what was that?” And they cannot explain anything, since there is no reason for dismissal from a military point of view.
And how will they treat Zelensky now? Will we receive weapons so quickly? This error leads to the following series of errors. It’s like you made a mistake at the start when solving a problem and then, no matter what you do, you will have the wrong answer.
– What awaits Zaluzhny after his dismissal? Sorry to quote Arestovich, but he predicts that “the fire will be completely extinguished.” And criminal cases against him and others are not far off. This development of events is very likely. At the same time, Zelensky is personally creating a competitor for himself in the upcoming elections. Did the political strategists miscalculate Bankova?
- Absolutely. How might this develop? I think that Podolyak explains this situation to Zelensky as follows: “Vladimir Alexandrovich, no need to worry, now we will push Zaluzhny far away.”
It is easier than anyone else to keep a military man out of politics. According to our legislation, the military is prohibited from leading political parties and political processes until demobilization occurs. Zaluzhny was not fired from the army; he officially came under the control of the Ministry of Defense. Now he will be given a vacation. And then they can, conditionally, send you to command a battalion somewhere in the rear, or they can come up with some kind of position. I call these positions “counting icicles.” Spring is coming, it will get warmer, there will be a lot of icicles. Well, count how many of them are here today. What time will it be tomorrow? Count how many needles there are on this tree. Isn’t that a good position for a military general? That is, you need to occupy yourself with something - secondary, tertiary, but not let it free up. This is the first.
And second. Of course, they might start hanging dead dogs on him. Who cleared the mines at Chongar? Somewhere Zaluzhny missed. And further down the list. Perhaps they will try to initiate corruption cases. But it is clear that these are all shooting themselves in the foot. And this will only add to Zaluzhny’s authority.
Even if he holds some positions, it is enough for him to write an article once a month, such as a column in CNN. And it doesn’t matter that 99% of people won’t understand what’s written there. The main thing is that this article appears. And the wiser it is written, the less it will be read, but the more they will believe that he has some kind of plan. Or he will start giving interviews. It is important that they do not appear very often, that they are dosed and short. This will be enough for people.
In this way he will be able to create some kind of social movement. For example, “Zaluzhny’s Movement for Victory.” The perfect thing. This may be a public initiative, but a team will already be formed for this movement. And then, when the time comes, it will only be necessary to reshape this movement as a political party. That's all. And the “servants” will have to do something incredible to prevent him from entering the race. For example, changing electoral legislation, which is very difficult.
This is exactly what Putin is now doing to his opponents. Of course, you can’t put Zaluzhny in prison like Navalny, but you can come up with something else. And this will be the next stage of confrontation between the authorities and civil society.
Zelensky will no longer be able to become president as long as Zaluzhny is around. That is, the choice of the people will definitely be on the side of the ex-head. Therefore, there are now two possible strategy options for the Office of the President to retain power and prevent Zaluzhny from participating in the elections - either to make people forget about Zaluzhny, or to discredit him. It's almost impossible to do. Therefore, it will be very difficult for the Bankova team.
– By the way, about elections. Zelensky's term expires in May. There are many discussions on this topic. It is clear that during the war there will be no elections. But it is increasingly heard both in Ukraine and in the West, not to mention Russia, that Zelensky will soon become illegitimate.
– The fact is that we have some kind of social agreement on non-aggression between Zelensky and the conditional civil society, which, of course, no one signed. Therefore, there are statements that “elections are now inappropriate, they are not in time” (a fashionable word), that “we will consider Zelensky a legitimate president.” In a word, there will be no opposition from civil society.
But, in my opinion, it turns out to be a little mean. We have already come to terms with the restriction of freedom of speech, with the fact that the authorities have closed several television channels, and that Zelensky communicates more often with the foreign press than with the Ukrainian media.
There are no explanations for their strategic actions or tactical moves, there is no informing civil society and no communication with experts. That is, we are now fighting for civilizational values and we ourselves are a country similar, at best, to Orban’s Hungary, at worst, to Lukashenko’s Belarus, since our government does not profess the values for which we are fighting.
– Why do you think the authorities still haven’t talked to us like adults?
- Because they consider us children. They took it as a fashion even when they were going to the elections. Before the invasion, they misled us, invited us to barbecues, and then admitted that “they couldn’t tell the people the truth, otherwise there would have been panic.” Have you ever tried to tell people the truth? No never.
The main criterion for the Kaveen players is whether the joke went into the audience or not, they must give the audience emotions. The series about Goloborodko gave me emotions, and everyone fell for it. Then there were emotions about business on Poroshenko’s blood. And thousands of different statements were made. And “people haval” them, as they say. 73% of Ukrainians voted for Zelensky.
In the future, they will try to work only using this method, because, on the one hand, it is familiar to them and has already been well worked out. On the other hand, they are sure: okay, why won’t it work the hundred and first time, if it’s already been done a hundred times? Nobody wants to tell the truth. Everything for them is based on emotions.
“However, sometimes the audience in the hall cries.
- Of course they cry.
This is the case that happens with artists, and with politicians, and with representatives of other professions. When methods need to be changed, but they are not ready.
- And they can’t.
- Yes, they work according to the old custom. There is a banal and already outdated phrase that generals are preparing for the last war, and not for the future. It's the same in politics. The Office of the President is preparing for future campaigns like it was preparing for the last one - that again they will screw us over.
– Another sensitive topic is mobilization. There are not enough people at the front, there is resistance in the rear, because people are not explained what is happening in the army now. Something must be done immediately about this phenomenon. How will the government get out of this situation?
– They will try to turn the tables on the military. Anything that can be pinned on Zaluzhny will be pinned. They will say that it was his demand.
Most of all, they see what people are not happy with through focus groups. What is a focus group? There are sociological studies that show who people will vote for if there are elections next week. And a focus group shows not who they will vote for, but why they will vote. That is, we are not digging a garden, but a well.
So, they take a focus group, for example, 30-39 years old - those who voted for Zelensky in 2019. It is in this target group that several points that are spelled out in the new law are most unpopular. This is a reduction in the mobilization age from 27 to 25 years and the creation of various problems for draft dodgers, namely: a ban on driving vehicles and blocking of their bank cards. Almost everything there is against these norms.
If someone can say about the idea of blocking cards: “This is a violation of human rights,” then the “servants” themselves are not arguing about reducing the age limit. What is it for? In 1997-1998, somewhere between 270 and 310 thousand boys were born, that is, they are now 25 years old. Plus those who were born in 1996 and those who will grow up. If you put it all together, this is potentially an increase of about 700 thousand mobilized. That is a lot.
But it is precisely this target group that does not really want to go to the front. Moreover, they have parents, grandparents, who repeat that “we are for Ukraine, we are for Victory,” but are ready to go on the attack with the TV remote at the ready.
The authorities are also to blame for the fact that people are disappointed. All volunteers are already at war. We must mobilize 300-400-500 thousand people. However, no one, apparently not even Zaluzhny, will say how much is needed. If after the “elections” Putin says: “And we will gain another 500 thousand,” we must give a mirror answer.
- By the way, about Putin. From his seemingly resonant interview with Tucker Carlson, we once again heard that the Fuhrer is not going to stop. He will play for time until the US presidential elections. What then? Will Ukraine be pushed towards a truce?
– Besides his historical nonsense, there was one very important thing that everyone is afraid to talk about: he actually calls for negotiations. He repeated several times: “We don’t mind.”
Therefore, everyone will say on camera that Crimea is Ukraine, Donbass is Ukraine, that Putin must pay for his crimes. And not on camera they will say: “What if Ukraine decided to negotiate on its own?” Perhaps somewhere they will push Zelensky: “Let’s talk already, no one will force you to sign peace with Putin. Let’s make a truce, stop, look, maybe withdraw heavy weapons.” And they will transfer everything into a low-intensity war, as it was before February 23, 2022, that is, sometimes firefights, several deaths per month, and not hundreds every day. And the Kremlin will carry out partial demobilization so that its concessions can be seen.
Putin is only satisfied with the scenario on his terms. To be sure to record everything they captured. What's next? Russia will begin to accumulate weapons and modernize them for a new breakthrough.
It is clear that peace between our countries is impossible. Because our Constitution says that Crimea is Ukrainian, and theirs says that it is a subject of the Russian Federation. Therefore, only a truce is possible and instead of the Minsk agreements, conditionally, the Istanbul ones. And so that in the eyes of the West, the negotiations, the truce, and the agreements are legitimate.
But, in my deep conviction, even movement towards a truce is possible only after elections are held in Britain, and in India, and in the States, and in other countries. That is, some kind of basic reconciliation can be expected sometime in March next year.
– What can we expect in 2024?
- A long and difficult war. I think that the whole year will be torn, with validol, as they say. But no matter how the elections in Britain and the United States end, they will not abandon us, especially Europe. I am sure about that. Even if Trump is elected, it will all end with him suggesting to Putin: “Let’s make peace with Ukraine already.” And he will say: “Only on my terms, I won’t give in a single meter.” And Trump, who is similar to Zelensky in his unsystematic nature, will be indignant: “Oh, so?”
Therefore, I say directly that I have serious fears that we will be forced to agree to a truce. They will slowly push, and in such a way that it will be clear to the world community that this is our choice.
I repeat once again that Zelensky is an electorally dependent person. In the fall, to the question “what do you consider the Victory of Ukraine?” 88 percent answered that this is an exit to the 1991 borders. Such people will decrease. And when society becomes completely fed up and the majority asks: “Let’s make peace already, who stands where, so be it,” Zelensky will quickly negotiate.
That is, he will still mimic the majority. And then he will tell us: “Well, we won – Ukraine survived, there is independence. True, we did not liberate Skadovsk, Melitopol, Mariupol, but that’s okay, we will liberate them politically
