European brake of Ukraine. Why did Orban's envoy come?

The Hungarian side formulated its demands in 11 points

The westernmost regional center of Ukraine, Uzhgorod, has become the diplomatic capital in recent days. On January 24, a meeting between the Prime Ministers of Ukraine and Slovakia Denis Shmygal and Robert Fico took place here, which ended with the signing of a joint statement. And on January 29, Uzhgorod was visited by a distinguished guest from another neighboring country - Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó.

It is significant that Uzhgorod, and not Kyiv, was chosen for official meetings by representatives of Slovakia and Hungary. The current governments of these countries are among the few in the European Union that allow themselves openly anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. And if in Slovakia this turning point occurred with the coming to power of Fico’s team, then Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long nurtured his image, to put it mildly, of a Ukrainian skeptic and “friend of the Kremlin.”

Last December, a clear illustration was received of how Budapest, in practice, can put a spoke in Kyiv’s wheels. At the EU summit, Hungary blocked the Ukraine Facility, a four-year financial assistance program for Ukraine in the amount of 50 billion euros. However, at the same time a positive signal was also received - Orban could not do anything about the pressure of the European bison and close the door to the start of the European integration process for Ukraine.

This gives cautious reasons to hope that at the EU summit on February 1, Hungary will no longer offer such fierce resistance to a second attempt to approve financial support for Ukraine. Moreover, a backup mechanism has already been developed under which money can be allocated to Kyiv in any case outside the EU budget, but through a more complex procedure and with a time delay. But further stubbornness could cost Orbán a lot: we are talking about the possibility of using Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union, which would allow Brussels to deprive Budapest of its voting rights, and about the deprivation of European financial assistance, which Hungary really needs.

On the eve of Szijjártó’s visit to Uzhgorod, the Financial Times published an EU plan according to which Brussels could hit the not very strong Hungarian economy, cutting off its access to EU funds and threatening the stability of its weak forint, undermining investor confidence.

The extent to which such threats will affect Orbán remains to be seen. So far the signals are coming in different. Thus, Hungary emphasizes its demands to approve aid to Ukraine annually, accordingly leaving itself open to further annual blackmail. On the other hand, recent statements by the chief political adviser to Prime Minister Balázs Orbán indicate that Budapest is willing to compromise, but with certain “reservations.”

Give up Transcarpathia!

Both under the previous and under the current government in Kyiv, one of the main complaints of Budapest was “concern” regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. But even the recent concessions that the Verkhovna Rada made in this matter, changing the law on national minorities just in time for negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU, did not make the right impression on Viktor Orban. Just as he was not satisfied with the appeal of organizations of the Hungarian community in Ukraine with a call to support the start of negotiations between Kyiv and Brussels on accession. This once again confirmed that the Hungarian prime minister’s biased attitude towards Ukraine is not at all connected with concern for his compatriots in Transcarpathia. Explaining his rejection of Ukraine in the EU and NATO, Orban gushes with a number of arguments: this is the impossibility of accepting into these unions a country that is waging a war and the doom of Ukraine in a battle with powerful Russia, and the inability of the European Union to “digest” such a neophyte. Among the little things that Budapest clung to, inflating them to incommensurable proportions, was Ukraine’s inclusion of the Hungarian “OTP Bank” in the list of war sponsors.

At the same time, Orban has never met with the current Ukrainian president, to whom he could express all these concerns. Except for a short spontaneous meeting in Argentina during the inauguration of newly elected President Javier Miley. Orban then accepted Zelensky's invitation to talk about bilateral issues if the foreign ministers prepared a meeting in advance.

And so Szijjártó’s visit, the formal purpose of which was to prepare for the future meeting of the presidents, took place.

The background of this visit turned out to be quite specific. Just the day before, the leader of the Hungarian far-right party Mi Hazank, Laszlo Torockai, distinguished himself with an extremely outrageous statement about claims to Ukrainian Transcarpathia in the event of Ukraine losing statehood due to the war. This is not the first statement of this kind from this member of the Hungarian parliament, but the fact that it was made precisely at the “right” moment was significant.

In addition, a colleague of the Hungarian outcast, one of the leaders of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, Claudiu Tarziu, in unison, announced Romania’s territorial claims to the Ukrainian lands of Northern Bukovina, Transcarpathia, Bessarabia, as well as the whole of Moldova.

Torotsko is considered close to Orban, as is the newspaper Magyar Nemzet, which recently published a manipulative article without a signature with strange criticism of the “undemocratic” Ukrainian media.

But the very fact that even against such a background the head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry reached Ukraine to take the first steps in improving Ukrainian-Hungarian relations should already be perceived as a positive and a breakthrough. Of course, if such a desire on the part of Budapest is at least a little sincere, and is not aimed only at reducing Orban’s toxicity in the EU and giving him trump cards in the further tug-of-war with Brussels.

Is the meeting of leaders getting closer?

Szijjártó began his trip to Ukraine with a meeting with the head of the Transcarpathian Regional Military Administration, Viktor Mikita, in the border town of Zahony on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border. The head of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry praised Mikita for “a completely new approach and culture of reconciliation, so that Ukrainians and Hungarians can live side by side in peace and harmony.” Separately, Szijjarto remembered the head of the region and his merits even at the final press conference.

In Uzhgorod, Szijjarto had a conversation planned with the “heavy artillery” - the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Ermak and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba. Moreover, judging by the seating arrangement, it was obvious that the first violin in these negotiations was not played by Szijjártó’s colleague in rank.

Based on the negotiations, Andriy Ermak emphasized the progress in organizing the upcoming meeting of political leaders: “Today, both sides absolutely clearly said that there is interest in holding a meeting at the level of the Prime Minister of Hungary and the President of Ukraine. I believe that today we have taken a very powerful step towards this meeting. Of course, we are all interested in this meeting being successful and opening a new page in our relations.” The head of the Presidential Office expressed hope that the meeting between Zelensky and Orban, which is planned to be organized as soon as possible, will end in achieving concrete results. Considering that Szijjártó had previously stated that the meeting of leaders would only make sense if it could produce a result, a certain vision of this result should have been articulated in Uzhgorod.

The head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba reported at the final briefing that a significant part of the meeting was devoted to the notorious issue of national minorities. Szijjártó also paid a lot of attention to him. The parties agreed that the discussion on this topic would be transferred to the bilateral level, and a special commission would be created under the auspices of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It will provide the governments of both countries with a concrete understanding of what to do with the list of comments that still worry the Hungarian authorities. Szijjártó noted that this commission will have a representative of Hungary, who will strive to ensure that the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority receives the rights that existed before 2015. The Hungarian diplomat emphasized that he did not require anything special, only a return to “the way it was.”

The Hungarian side formulated its demands for the protection of the rights of national minorities in 11 points: in particular, this is the restoration of the status of a national school, the opportunity to take a matriculation certificate in the Hungarian language and to use Hungarian in the spheres of culture and public life. All this, Szijjártó hopes, should be reflected in new laws. As previous practice has shown, it is not realistic to completely satisfy Budapest on the issue of national minorities, but such dialogue is better than a blank wall.

Among other topics discussed in Uzhgorod were cooperation in energy, logistics, construction of a bridge over the Tisza, new checkpoints... The chief Hungarian diplomat had to “clean up” the statements of the talkative Orban that Ukraine had ceased to be a sovereign state, and assure that Hungary respects the Ukrainian sovereignty. Szijjártó repeated that Ukraine should not expect military assistance from Hungary, but that it will continue to provide humanitarian assistance. And regarding the most pressing issue - Hungary's behavior at the EU summit this week, the Hungarian minister dryly noted that it is not bilateral and will be discussed directly in Brussels.

The parties several times noted the honesty and sincerity of the conversation, and Szijjártó spoke about the first steps towards restoring trust. But whether the ice in relations between Kyiv and Budapest has really broken can be seen in a few days in Brussels.