The ban on the participation of NATO military countries in the Russian war against Ukraine and on the territory of Ukraine itself was one of the Kremlin’s bold “red lines” in relation to the collective West, but now it seems that Europe is seriously thinking about ignoring the warnings of the Russians.
This position is voiced most loudly by the French authorities, against the background of which the United States and Germany are acting more cautiously and from the outside it may seem somewhat hesitant. At the same time, Paris cannot act unilaterally, so as not to undermine the consolidated position of the United States and the EU when discussing methods and means of repelling Russian aggression against Ukraine. One example of such a consolidated solution could be the creation of a European coalition of military instructors for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Consistent with other NATO countries?
French President Emmanuel Macron intends to create a coalition of European military instructors to train Ukrainian military personnel.
According to recent reports from Le Monde, a final decision has not yet been made, but the sending of French and other European instructors to Ukraine could happen within weeks or even days.
The French government is seeking to assemble a coalition of countries to train the Ukrainian military. According to Le Monde's sources, consultations on the issue should speed up in the coming days so that an announcement can be made during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to France as part of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, which will take place on June 6 and 7.
As experts insist, there may be something more behind such information than the initiative of Paris to form the specified coalition of foreign instructors for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
President Macron could publicly declare his intention to send Western troops into Ukraine only after agreement with NATO partners. At the same time, the format of participation - military instructors, participation in protecting the state border and other auxiliary functions that do not involve direct participation in hostilities - these are all minor details, military analyst Dmitry Snegirev noted in a comment to Apostrophe.
“Accordingly, when the French President first publicly voices the option of sending troops to Ukraine, and a few weeks later information appears in the European media that Paris intends to assemble a European coalition of instructors to train Ukrainian military personnel, this means that the issue with such a coalition has already been discussed with other NATO countries or is under discussion,” said Dmitry Snegirev.
If such plans are made public, then Macron has actually indicated the mood of the entire Alliance. If previously sending NATO troops to Ukraine was a “red line” drawn by Moscow, then Macron’s position, which, by the way, he voiced publicly, should be taken to mean that there are no Kremlin “lines” for the entire NATO. The values have specific decisions and, accordingly, the possible price that will have to be paid if these decisions are implemented, the expert added.
Not a political move
According to Reuters, an official French announcement about sending military instructors to Ukraine could follow next week during Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's visit to the country.
Anonymous diplomatic sources indicate that Paris is seeking to organize and lead a coalition of countries willing to support Kyiv in military aspects, even despite the fears of some of its partners about a possible direct clash with Russia.
Diplomats speaking to Reuters said France would initially send a small team to assess the mission's capabilities, followed by several hundred trainers. It is noted that the training will focus on mine clearance, maintenance of military equipment and technical aspects of military aviation.
In addition, Paris plans to finance, arm and train the Ukrainian motorized brigade.
At first glance, it may seem that such initiatives from Paris represent more of a political move, since the Ukrainian military, for objective reasons, can themselves teach their Western colleagues exactly how to fight the Russians, but such conclusions in practice may turn out to be superficial.
As Nikolai Sungurovsky, head of military programs at the Razumkov Center, noted in a comment to Apostrophe, in this situation logistics and organizational aspects are of paramount importance. First of all, it is impossible to “snatch” a larger number of sergeants and officers from the combat zone to send them to training centers as instructors.
“The coalition that Paris is proposing is very relevant, since sending us NATO instructors here will increase the capacity of training centers, train the military to use Western weapons and combat tactics when our soldiers do not come face to face with the Russians, so that they do not learn this right on the front line. And the next point is that sending instructors to Ukraine is a more convenient move, from a logistics point of view, than sending our soldiers for training in NATO countries,” explained Nikolai Sungurovsky.
Since the beginning of the open invasion of the Russian Federation, a relatively small part of the Ukrainian military (presumably about 15%) has undergone training abroad, but this is not enough for the growing needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Similarly, the system of training centers (the so-called “uchebok”) was inherited by Ukraine from the USSR, and in many ways it was suitable for peacetime conditions. Now the centers, due to a whole range of reasons, cannot cope with the flow of mobilized people.
“Sending Western instructors to Ukraine is an extremely rational decision. We cannot get involved in a war of attrition, because the Russian Federation simply has more resources, but we also cannot fight with Western weapons using Soviet methods. It is not enough to translate Western educational materials and technical documentation into Ukrainian. We need experienced specialists who here in Ukraine will train our soldiers in the tactics of using Western weapons, which is based on maneuvering, looking for weak points in enemy forces and delivering combined attacks on them,” noted a captain of the first rank, ex-deputy commander, in a comment to Apostrophe Headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy Andrey Ryzhenko.
Limited participation
At the end of May, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that in the near future he would officially present a plan regarding the possible deployment of French military instructors in Ukraine. Then, on May 27, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, announced after negotiations with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu that France is ready to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian military personnel, but the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense clarified that discussions on this issue are ongoing, and Ukraine is currently preparing necessary documents to avoid delays due to bureaucratic procedures once the final decision is made.
“Macron’s position, when it came to sending the French military to the Odessa region, is based on the fact that for now it is not for the Kremlin to define the boundaries of what is “permissible” for NATO, but for the Alliance countries themselves to draw “red lines” in front of Moscow - one of which is that NATO, not only politically, but in real action, will not allow the collapse of Ukraine, so that the war does not spread to the territory of the EU. Here the position of France cannot be contrasted with the position of Germany. It’s just that Paris and Berlin use different tactics, but the same task is being solved - strengthening the defense potential of Ukraine for the sake of covering Europe itself,” noted international political scientist Vladimir Volya in a commentary to Apostrophe.
From the point of view of military management, the introduction of a coalition of NATO military trainers into Ukraine can also be considered as “limited participation”, but with significant political signals to the Kremlin that NATO will not allow the collapse of the Ukrainian front and, accordingly, the loss of Ukraine’s statehood. Along with permission to launch strikes with Western weapons on Russian territory, the appearance of instructors from NATO member countries is a very clear message for the Kremlin: despite attempts at information and political sabotage on the part of Russia, the West is increasing its support for Ukraine.
