The Wall Street Journal reported that in November, problems with paying salaries to officials and public sector employees may begin in Ukraine if the United States does not accept a new package of financial assistance. It is, of course, unusual to learn news about problems within our country from foreign sources. But it makes you wonder how much we currently depend on outside financial assistance. And how much we will depend in the future, including after the war.
Congress excluded aid to Ukraine from the interim budget law because “Ukraine will face a serious economic and political shock” at the height of the counteroffensive, journalists say. The United States and other donor countries actually pay the salaries of 150,000 Ukrainian government employees and more than half a million teachers, professors and school employees, and finance Ukrainian government spending, from health care to housing subsidies.
This dependence jeopardizes the social situation in our country both during the war and after it. And where to get money for officials’ salaries is not the most difficult task. The war will leave large numbers of disabled men crippled and disabled. At least 25 thousand Ukrainian soldiers have lost limbs since the beginning of the war, American physician Mike Corcoran, who provides prosthetics for Ukrainians, told Sky News. Other Western media put the figure at almost 30 thousand military personnel, the Wall Street Journal allows the figure to be up to 50 thousand. The latest data is confirmed by the Kyiv charitable organization Houp Foundation.
These are scary numbers. During the 20 months of war in Ukraine, at least 10 times more soldiers underwent amputation of limbs than during the 20 years of American war in Iraq and Afghanistan. The actual number of injured may be even higher, since the process of prosthetics takes a lot of time. And in the current conditions, it is an expensive operation even in a single case, let alone thousands of military personnel awaiting prosthetics.
The presence of a large number of disabled people will place an unbearable burden on the social sphere. Now we do not know exact statistics, we do not know how the state is going to provide targeted support for people with disabilities here and now. During the war, the total number of people with disabilities (not only those who lost limbs) increased by 300 thousand, said Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovich. There are 3 million disabled people in the country. That's 10% of the population!
There is an opinion inside Ukraine that European and American allies are unlikely to help with social security for veterans. It is worth noting that US assistance, which is incomparable with the financial flows of the European Union, is fundamental for us. And the current position of Congress makes us wary even now. It is hard to imagine that Congress would care about the fate of 3 million Ukrainians with disabilities (if the war is as long as promised, this figure will increase) and agree to fund their social benefits and rehabilitation for the rest of their lives. It’s hard to imagine that the West would be interested in long-term social assistance after the war, at least for 5-10 years. In the best case, Kyiv will receive subsidies for economic or industrial reforms, or macroloans with deferred payments. And this will not be enough for social assistance for disabled people: under such conditions, the country’s social system will last no more than two years.
A large number of cripples after the war is a serious risk of collapse of the Ukrainian economy and in relation to human resources and labor. As we have already written, not all able-bodied Ukrainians will return home after the war. Many will settle in EU countries, others will be afraid of responsibility regarding the issue of service in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. God grant that 30% comes back. There can be no talk of any alliance for the production of weapons if Ukraine simply does not have enough labor. Even if we imagine that it will be possible to attract qualified specialists and workers, in economic terms this will mean significant financial investments by the state in the industrial sector (excluding foreign investment). For the social system to work, 10-15 years of powerful subsidies will be needed, but so far their prospects are quite vague.
Yes, after any large-scale war, disabled people place an unbearable burden on both the state and their families. There is a serious moral basis in this - these are veterans who defended the future of our children, fought for their homeland and the peaceful sky above their heads. There are only a few left who remember how in Ukraine at the end of the 1940s after World War II, armless, legless recent soldiers walked through the streets on crutches and on prosthetics. They begged and begged. But this did not last long: they were taken to “closed boarding houses with a special regime.” The Soviet regime simply did not have the money to support disabled people. Our authorities need to think about social policy regarding disabled veterans now, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the past.
