How ATACMS missiles can change the situation at the front

The United States finally transferred long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces immediately successfully used, striking the airfields of temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Lugansk. As a result of the attack, helicopters were destroyed, pilots were killed, and infrastructure was damaged.

Real panic began in Russian pro-war telegram channels and propaganda media. Even more than 24 hours after the ATACMS attack, propagandists have not figured out how to justify the missed “pill.” The hysteria of the Russian dictator Putin, who is now in China, also indicates that the occupiers have nothing to oppose with new missiles.

Read about the history of the transfer of ATACMS, how they can affect the situation at the front and whether Ukraine can hope to transfer other modifications of long-range missiles.

ATACMS in action

On the morning of October 17, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that they had carried out night strikes on the airfields of Lugansk and Berdyansk. This information was also confirmed by pro-war Russian telegram channels, publishing videos and photos from the scene of the event.

Later, Russian publics reported that the strike was most likely carried out by American ATACMS missiles and again published corresponding photos of the debris of these missiles. The markings MGM-140A Block 1 are visible on them - this is a modification of the ATACMS missile with a cassette warhead and a firing range of up to 165 km. Z – military correspondents also wrote that as a result of the strike, helicopters and ammunition depots were destroyed and “professional pilots” were killed.

Ukraine confirmed the damage information, noting that as a result of attacks on airfields, nine helicopters of various modifications, special equipment that was located at the airfields, an air defense launcher, an ammunition depot were destroyed, and airfield strips were damaged.

The MTR said that the ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated before 4 am. The detonation in Lugansk continued until 11 am. According to the special forces, the enemy's casualties amounted to dozens of dead and wounded. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not report how the blow was struck deep in the rear of the invaders.

Towards the evening, when panic in the Russian information space reached its maximum, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, reporting on the Headquarters, thanked the United States.

“Our agreements with President Biden are being implemented. They are carried out very accurately - the Atacams have proven themselves,” the president said.

Following the president, the presence of ATACMS in our country was confirmed by the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, by publishing a video of the launch of these missiles at targets in Berdyansk and Lugansk.

“We have been looking at the airfield in Berdyansk for a long time. Satellite images were published confirming that helicopters were there. This airfield is used by the Russians as an intermediate base, a “jump” airfield on the front line. So the target is quite tasty for our missile forces. Which played a role in choosing the opening target for ATACMS. The material and human damage is quite significant,” noted in a commentary a military historian, professor of the department of the National Academy of Ground Forces named after. Sagaidachny Andrey Kharuk.

However, reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan believes that this is not the first use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine.

“According to my information, ATACMS have already been used at military facilities near Dzhankoy. Then the attack was carried out by cluster munitions on the concentration of equipment. So today we are talking about at least the second use of these missiles,” Svitan said.

When was it transferred and how much?

Discussions about the supply of ATACMS missiles have been going on since the summer of 2022, when Ukraine received the first M142 HIMARS and M270MLRS MLRS. We were provided with new military aid packages, but ATACMS was not included in them, although information flashed in the American media that Joe Biden allegedly gave the go-ahead for this.

“Many media outlets wrote that the decision to transfer ATACMS to us was made by Biden after the Russians became more active in the Avdeevka direction. But this is not so, since it is not quick to equip and send missiles from the United States to Ukraine,” military-political commentator Alexander Kovalenko says in a commentary to Apostrophe. “Therefore, as I expected, the decision to transfer was made much earlier and Zelensky did not It was in vain that I personally went to Ramstein.”

Literally immediately after the use of ATACMS, Politico reported that the White House made the final decision to transfer ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine on August 30, and sent them as part of a military aid package announced on September 21.

According to the publication, the discussion about providing ATACMS flared up in the White House in July, when US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan ordered to consider options for additional weapons that would help Ukraine hit vulnerable targets in the Russian rear.

On August 23, Politico journalists note, Sullivan’s subordinates offered to provide Ukraine with a modification of ATACMS missiles with an APAM cluster part, since America had already begun transferring cluster munitions, but the Pentagon, which did not want to allow a shortage of long-range weapons, did not include this modification in defense planning.

On August 30, a meeting of senior White House officials responsible for national security took place and it was on that day that the decision was made to provide Ukraine with ATACMS, the publication notes.

Politico writes that the United States kept the decision secret to maintain the element of surprise for Russia.

Joe Biden informed Vladimir Zelensky about the decision to provide ATACMS during a meeting at the White House on September 21. At the same time, the United States announced a package of military assistance to Ukraine, where long-range missiles were referred to as “cluster munitions.”

The American media wrote that as a result, the United States sent about 20 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. However, the exact number of missiles is unknown, and it is unlikely that anyone will say this publicly. So every ATACMS launch will come as a surprise to the occupiers. However, it is known that one of the conditions for the provision of missiles is their non-use for attacks on Russian territory.

Why is ATACMS good?

Why we needed ATACMS and how it differs from the existing Storm Shadow and SCALP. ATACMS are long-range operational-tactical ballistic missiles. Their advantage is that they are launched from HIMARS and MLRS multiple rocket launchers, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have. And Storm Shadow and SCALP need to be launched from aircraft. This is their vulnerability. In addition, ATACMS have a much longer range (from 150 to 300 kilometers). And also - many times more powerful warheads weighing about 450 kilograms. True, as follows from the published photographs, Ukraine was given outdated models of missiles from 1996 with a flight range of 165 km.

“Photos published in Russian public pages show M74 submunitions for the M39 cluster rocket. The range of this ammunition is 160 kilometers. It carries 950 submunitions,” noted Roman Svitan.

The head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, Alexander Musienko, named the main advantages of such weapons: additional fire capabilities, since the missile flies along a ballistic trajectory, they can be used for combined attacks to disorient the enemy’s air defense.

Musienko emphasized that the ballistic trajectory is difficult to intercept. Not all anti-aircraft missile systems can counter such missiles.

How will ATACMS affect the situation at the front?

The beginning of Ukraine's use of long-range ATACMS missiles poses a significant threat to Russian ammunition depots in rear areas and will likely force the Russian command to choose between strengthening existing depots and subsequent dispersal of depots throughout the territory of temporarily occupied regions. Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) came to this conclusion.

The likely dispersal of Russian aircraft at airfields across occupied Ukrainian territory and the movement of air assets beyond the front line will likely disrupt Russian air support for defense efforts and local offensive operations. The relocation of aircraft to airfields located further in the rear could affect the flight time Russian aircraft need to support operations.

And here is what the Russian propaganda media write about this. “When Ukrainians use ATACMS, the tactical depth of destruction of Russian military targets and positions increases. ATACMS significantly changes the situation on the battlefield - Ukrainian troops have longer arms.

“This, of course, is an unpleasant pill for us to swallow,” laments the Russian “military correspondent.”

Vladimir Putin, who is currently on a visit to China, had to react.

“First of all, it certainly causes harm. This creates an additional threat. Secondly, we will certainly be able to repel these attacks. War is war. And, of course, I said that they pose a threat, that goes without saying. But what is most important is that it is fundamentally incapable of changing the situation on the contact line at all. Impossible. This can be said for sure. This is another mistake on the part of the United States. And for several reasons at once. Firstly, if they had not supplied weapons, they could have said in the future: well, if we had supplied everything we could, then the situation would have changed, it would have led to unnecessary casualties, we are so good and didn’t do this . But they did it. But there will be no result. That's why it's a mistake. And finally, there is nothing good in this for Ukraine either. It just prolongs the agony. And finally, a larger mistake, still invisible, but of great importance, is that the United States is increasingly drawn into this conflict. This is an obvious thing. And let no one say that they have nothing to do with this. We believe that they have,” Putin began to talk, clearly concerned about the emergence of new weapons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, Putin was unable to clearly talk about how the Kremlin would respond to missile attacks.

Military experts Roman Svitan and Alexander Kovalenko believe that, based on the results of using these ATACMS, newer modifications will come later.

“We are waiting for deliveries of M39A1 missiles - carrying 275 submunitions, but flying 300 kilometers,” Svitan noted.

If such missiles are supplied, the occupiers, according to Svitan, will have to practically stop using helicopters.

“Warehouses and airfields will also be under attack. The length of delivery of ammunition and equipment will increase significantly. This will complicate the currently difficult situation for the Russian Army,” the expert concluded.

How will Russia respond?

In connection with Ukraine's use of long-range ATACMS missiles, the question arises as to how the Russian army can respond. According to Alexander Kovalenko, the occupiers will no longer be able to surprise us with anything.

“How can they surprise us? “Iskander”? We've already seen them. They can try to shoot down these missiles using the S-400 and Buk-M3 air defense systems and some modifications of the S-300, which, according to their characteristics, can allegedly intercept ballistic missiles. Will they be able to? Let's see. Although, as we have already seen, the Russians did not intercept ATACMS missiles flying in the direction of Berdyansk,” the expert concluded.