The Kremlin, according to the publication novayagazeta.eu, continues to carry out massive attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine for the second winter in a row. How the country plans to deal with this situation in the coming months.
Last week, Russia again attacked Kyiv and central Ukraine with cruise missiles and drones targeting energy facilities for the first time since September. UK intelligence called the attack the start of a "concerted campaign" by the Kremlin to destroy Ukraine's electricity system. This week, shelling of Kyiv and other cities is happening more often.
Last winter, Moscow’s tactics bore fruit: Ukrainians were forced to spend many days without electricity or hot water. In the spring and summer of this year, the country's authorities actively repaired the energy network, but it was impossible to completely restore what had been destroyed - to pre-war levels. Ukraine faced this winter with an even more fragile energy system.
Energy analyst Jana Fortuna examined how the war changed Ukraine’s energy supply system, and what will happen this winter if or when the Kremlin resumes shelling tactics.
Last winter was the most difficult in modern history for the Ukrainian energy system. A few months after the invasion, in October, on the eve of cold weather, Russia launched its first strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities.
“October 10 was a surprise for our energy system,” recalls energy expert and chief researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine Gennady Ryabtsev. “Nobody thought that attacks would be carried out exclusively on civilian infrastructure, and did not pay special attention to the protection of civilian objects.”
Due to methodical attacks by Russian missiles and drones several times a week, interruptions in electricity, heating and water supply began in Ukraine. On the eve of winter, millions of Ukrainians had to spend days without light and heat. The main goal of the Russian attacks was to fragment the unified Ukrainian energy system and paralyze the exchange of electricity within the country.
Volume of destruction
After the first strikes, the national power grid operator Ukrenergo announced a lack of electricity in the system. By November last year, most large thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations were damaged. In December, according to government data, half of all energy facilities in Ukraine were damaged or destroyed.
According to the UN, as of April 2023, Ukraine's electricity production potential has more than halved. Nuclear generation capacity fell by 44%, mainly due to the shutdown of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. The potential for hydroelectric generation decreased by 29% due to shelling (the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station as such had almost no consequences, but the destruction of the Kakhovka reservoir limited the capacity of all stations of the Dnieper cascade located above). Renewable energy lost 24% of capacity as most solar and wind farms are located in the south of the country, where fighting is taking place.
Over the entire last heating season, Russia hit the Ukrainian power grid with missiles and drones 1,200 times and reached its target 250 times. In an effort to fragment Ukraine's unified energy system, the Russian military fired at key power distribution points in the system—transformer substations.
A substation is an intermediary between the electricity producer (such as a nuclear power plant or thermal power plant) and the consumer (apartment or factory). “You can produce 100% of the electricity, but without substations and transmission lines you will not supply it to the consumer: the population or industry,” says Yuri Korolchuk, co-founder of the Ukrainian Institute of Energy Strategies. “The Russian army leadership absolutely clearly understood what targets were being attacked and what would be consequences".
“Transformers, especially large ones, are often located in an open field and are very vulnerable from the point of view of any debris,” explains Gennady Ryabtsev. According to the expert, the fact is that a working transformer is usually cooled with oil, which, in turn, heats up: “It’s enough for the drone to just fall nearby and explode. The hot debris gets into the radiator of the cooling system, the oil flashes there - and that’s it, there is no transformer. Such objects were very difficult to protect."
Since the end of winter, according to the UN, almost half of the most important transformer substations in Ukraine - 42 out of 94 - have been damaged or destroyed.
How does the energy system of Ukraine work?
All thermal and power plants in Ukraine are united into a centralized system, that is, they produce and distribute energy in a coordinated manner, in a common manner. This system consists of regional subsystems that exchange power through main heat and electricity networks.
The main source of electricity in pre-war Ukraine was four nuclear power plants (NPPs): Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, South Ukrainian and Zaporozhye. Together they produced more than half of the country's electricity. In second place are thermal power plants (TPPs) and combined heat and power plants (CHPs), which produce energy by burning fossil fuels: coal, natural gas or fuel oil. They accounted for almost a third of the Ukrainian energy balance.
In Ukraine there are more than ten large thermal power plants that produce electricity, and more than twenty thermal power plants that also produce thermal energy - it provides hot water and heating in the homes of Ukrainians.
On the Dnieper and Dniester there are seven hydroelectric power plants (HPPs), where the power of river currents is converted into electricity, and two pumped storage power plants (PSPPs), which pump water into reservoirs at low consumption and release it at peak demand. In 2021, hydropower accounted for about 7% of electricity generation in Ukraine - about the same as solar, wind and bioelectric power plants combined (8%).
After the outbreak of the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, most of the Ukrainian thermal power plants that were located in the Donbass actually came under Russian control. “In territories not controlled by Ukraine, there are still facilities that now generate electricity for local needs. Someone controls them,” says Ryabtsev.
But, according to the analyst, without replenishment from Russia, the capacities that remained in working order there would not be enough to provide energy to the occupied regions. “The energy system of Ukraine was physically connected to the energy systems of Russia and Belarus, and where overhead power lines remained (in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions - author’s note), electricity still flows. If I’m not mistaken, the main supply to the Donetsk region now comes from the Rostov nuclear power plant,” explains Ryabtsev.
“The Donetsk-Lugansk energy enclave was formed gradually, starting in 2014,” explains Yuriy Korolchuk, “And now the same thing is happening [with the new territories occupied by Russia]. It’s a meaningful cut.”
After the full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022, the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, the most powerful nuclear power plant not only in Ukraine, but throughout Europe, also found itself on the territory seized by the Kremlin. Now the energy hub, the core of which was the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and the Zaporozhye Thermal Power Plant, has fallen out of the unified energy system of Ukraine. “The system is definitely divided,” says Ryabtsev. “Electricity does not flow through the Dnieper in its southern flow.”
If the Donetsk and Lugansk regions have their own generation, then the southern regions of Ukraine - Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Mariupol region - are much less provided with their own energy. The Zaporozhye Thermal Power Plant is still operating, but the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant has not produced electricity for more than a year.
But, according to Yuri Korolchuk, the energy shortage in the southern territories controlled by Russia is not so noticeable at the moment, because “consumption there has largely stopped” due to the outflow of population and the cessation of industry. “For now, Russia will request them from those points where there is control and stability,” says Korolchuk, “I think, mainly through Crimea, where there is now an energy surplus.”
At the same time, the regions occupied by Russia have been engulfed in hostilities since 2014 (and even more so since 2022), and local energy facilities regularly come under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The last time this happened was at the end of November: Denis Pushilin said that Ukraine attacked the energy system of the “republic”; parts of Donetsk, Mariupol, Gorlovka and other settlements were left without electricity.
Emergency energy integration
Immediately after the shelling began on the eve of the first winter, Ukrainian power engineers needed new transformers and equipment for substations to replace the destroyed ones. However, as Gennady Ryabtsev recalls, at first the aid that the EU sent through the Ukraine Energy Support Fund was largely useless: “This is what they supply during emergencies: generators, heat guns, blankets. Although one autotransformer was needed on site, we could provide everyone with heat and electricity.” Over time, supplies improved, and Ukraine began to receive what it needed, including high-voltage transformers.
After the attacks, power engineers promptly restored damaged equipment and electrical networks and carried out scheduled repairs at power units. Diesel and gasoline generators saved the day in apartment buildings. Renewable energy, which was once again being looked at against the backdrop of the energy crisis, also helped Ukrainians survive the difficult winter. In particular, just 100 km from the front, a wind farm began operating in May, capable of providing electricity to 200 thousand homes.
Gennady Ryabtsev connects the surge of interest in green generation with the general trend towards dispersal of the energy system in Ukraine. If before the war many large energy generation facilities were concentrated in industrial areas, then after it began, according to the expert, “spontaneous distribution occurred.” “In the regions they began to remember once forgotten local energy sources: some have mini-hydroelectric power stations, some have gas condensate, some have coal, some have peat, sunflower husks or straw - all of these can also be used to heat . In the Odessa region there is sun and wind, so why not install solar panels and wind turbines there,” says Ryabtsev. “From everything that the regions found, they began to receive heat and electricity. This significantly relieved the system.”
Accelerated synchronization with the European System of Electricity Operators (ENTSO-E) also played a role in supporting the Ukrainian energy system. It is the world's largest interconnected power grid, coordinating the exchange of energy between 35 European countries.
While remaining connected to the power systems of Russia and Belarus, since 2017 Ukraine has been preparing to connect to the synchronous network of continental Europe. A temporary technical disconnection from the Russian-Belarusian networks was planned for the beginning of 2022 in order to test the operation of the Ukrainian energy sector in autonomous mode. The test shutdown began on the night of February 23-24 - and in the morning there was war. Ukraine was supposed to return to the energy system of Russia and Belarus on February 27, but refused to do so. Instead, Kyiv requested emergency integration with European power grids, and on March 16 the country officially became part of the “energy European Union.” This allowed European countries to help out the Ukrainian energy system with insufficient electricity.
All this, together with air defense and energy savings, made it possible for the Ukrainian energy sector to get through last winter on its feet. And after the end of the heating season, it’s time to restore what was destroyed.
Wartime repairs
In the spring, Ukraine began a large-scale repair campaign. By August, as Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal stated, up to 70% of thermal power plants and 80% of main networks had been repaired and ready for winter. However, according to Yuri Korolchuk, readiness does not mean a complete restoration of the energy system.
The government says Ukraine has received more than $2 billion from international partners to repair and protect its energy sector, but Korolchuk said the money has mostly gone toward quick repairs. “Out of 90 substations in Ukraine, a third were damaged, and some needed major repairs,” he says, “but the repairs were carried out promptly, that is, they corrected the problems with the available means. There are substations that, due to destruction, operated at 30-40% of capacity; at best, they were reduced to 50-60%. Repairs, more or less similar to major ones, were carried out at three substations.”
Firstly, Korolchuk explains, there was not enough money: according to the UN, losses to the Ukrainian energy system already in the summer exceeded $10 billion. Secondly, there was no time. We simply do not physically have time to restore all the objects, the expert believes. — Officials themselves admitted that normal repairs to the substation require at least nine months. And some objects can take two years to restore.”
The director of the Energy Research Center of Ukraine, Alexander Kharchenko, agrees with him, who believes that before the winter it was realistic to restore no more than 15-20% of energy facilities. In a commentary to Ekonomicheskaya Pravda, Kharchenko warns that with all efforts, “the high-voltage network will be restored to a maximum of 30-40% relative to its normal state.”
“In terms of production capacity, almost nothing was damaged, that is, we can produce electricity. But substations are now the weakest point due to accumulated damage,” says Korolchuk.
“The system’s functionality has been restored, but the power reserve is significantly less than it was a year ago,” agrees Ryabtsev.
“Another problem: you fix it normally, but tomorrow a rocket will fly to you there,” adds Korolchuk. Therefore, today in Ukraine, equipment is buried as far as possible, power facilities are protected with anti-drone nets, and concrete fences are built around transformers (although they protect only from debris, and not from direct hits).
Gennady Ryabtsev is confident that energy facilities in Ukraine are protected much better than last year: “In the off-season, everything was done to reduce the likelihood of damage to critical infrastructure. We have little such vulnerable equipment left, and the density of air defense is much higher than a year ago.”
There will be no blackout
“Ukraine’s energy system would be ready for winter if massive attacks from the Russian Federation were not expected. Without them, we have enough fuel, energy, and capacity to get through the heating season without problems. Therefore, the best scenario: all the missiles will fall somewhere or turn around,” says Ryabtsev.
However, one can hardly count on this. This year, Moscow began targeting energy facilities even earlier than in the past: already on September 21, power grids in five regions of Ukraine came under rocket fire. The attacks continue. The most massive drone raid occurred at the end of November: the majority of thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine were cut off and all three remaining nuclear power plants were emergency disconnected from the power system. British intelligence and Ukrainian military commanders reported back in October that Russia was stockpiling weapons for multiple winter strikes. And on December 7-8, the Kremlin fired the first of the missiles it had accumulated for the winter: they were aiming specifically at infrastructure facilities in the Dnepropetrovsk and Kyiv regions.
Ukraine enters this winter with a much more fragile and rickety power grid than a year ago. The UN predicted in a June report that, despite all efforts, Ukraine will not have time to restore its energy sector before the onset of cold weather. Electric networks and stations are really operating in emergency mode, with almost no power reserve. The likelihood of power outages and Russian shelling is high. Back in the summer, Ukrenergo advised Ukrainians to keep generators on hand, and on November 22, for the first time this heating season, it reported that there was a shortage of electricity in the country.
The weather factor may not work in favor of Ukraine. “Last winter in Ukraine was one of the warmest on record. - Yuri Korolchuk recalls - No one knows what this winter will be like.”
Therefore, expert forecasts for this winter vary significantly. “The winter will be difficult. The same or even more difficult than the last one,” says energy expert Alexander Kharchenko. “In the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk regions, not only missiles are flying, but also cannon artillery is working, and aircraft guided bombs are falling. Therefore, shutdowns are possible there in any case,” says Ryabtsev. In the rest of Ukraine, according to the expert, the worst scenario is emergency shutdowns after massive strikes and stabilization shutdowns in certain regions.
“Even in the worst case, this heating season will be better than last year, when we all sat without electricity for six hours in a row,” predicts Ryabtsev.
Ukrainian officials and energy companies are rather optimistic. Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal stated back in September that “Ukraine is entering this winter restored and ready for attacks.” Repair work is being completed at nuclear power plants, thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations, energy facilities are being covered with concrete blocks, gas production is growing, and the country is preparing to survive the first winter using its own gas. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that the electricity shortage will be small and will affect the Ukrainian economy than last year.
Ukrenergo claims that it is prepared for “peak loads” and “worst-case scenarios” - thanks to the experience that employees gained during the first war winter. “They already know what to do, they have already worked out algorithms of action for different situations,” says Gennady Ryabtsev. “It was a year ago that the rocket attack came as a surprise, then all the dispatchers turned grey. Now power engineers perceive them as a natural disaster: dangerous, almost predictable, but possible to survive.”
Most experts boil down their assessments to the fact that, at least, a total blackout does not threaten Ukraine. But Yuri Korolchuk suggests looking at a broader problem: “Who said that the goal is to create a blackout? Or destroy the Ukrainian energy system? Most likely, the goal is to gradually deplete the country and its energy capabilities. Let’s just say, don’t hit the person’s legs so that he falls to his knees, but make him kneel himself.”
According to Gennady Ryabtsev, Moscow will not be able to achieve this goal: “Citizens’ dissatisfaction with the lack of electricity is not converted into political action. Attacks on the energy system cannot influence the behavior of Ukrainian politicians - they only damage the reputation of the Russian Federation. Agree, it is difficult to justify the attack on the thermal power plant in Odessa with the desire to help the residents of Donbass.”
