The other day, the information space was stirred up by a message that the United States could transfer longer-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. According to information available to NBC News, the request for their provision is currently being considered. So, will we finally get what we've been talking about for so long? And if so, what kind of missiles and for what purposes can we use them? Let's figure it out.
From request to delivery
To begin with, I would like to note that the Ukrainian side has been sending requests for ATACMS to Washington since 2022. And only at the end of the summer of 2023 they were heard, at the beginning of autumn they were sent to Ukraine, and then in October they were successfully used.
On the night of October 17, 2023, airfields in temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Lugansk were attacked, presumably by an M39 missile (ATACMS Block I), as a result of which Russian aviation suffered the heaviest single losses in helicopter equipment.
It would seem that after such a successful first trial application, we should receive another batch. But so far there have been no new supplies, and given the political tentpole created by the Republicans in Congress, further deliveries remain in doubt.
And yet, if we talk about long-range ATACMS missiles, which ones exactly can we get and on what targets can we use them?
Nomenclature
As you can already understand, the M39 (ATACMS Block I) is a missile that we have already been able to successfully use, and it is very good in a number of indicators.
For example, it has an extremely powerful cluster warhead, consisting of 950 M74 submunitions the size of an orange and weighing just over half a kilogram. These submunitions are ideal against airfields and, in general, objects with dense concentrations of equipment or tent camps with a large concentration of people per hectare. But the downside of the M39 (ATACMS Block I) is its flight range – no more than 165 km.
Further development of these missiles led to the modification of the M39A1 (ATACMS Block IA), which received GPS guidance and an increased flight range of 300 km. Therefore, it is possible that this version may be discussed for further supplies to Ukraine.
In fact, a missile with a range of 300 km completely covers all temporarily occupied territories, depending on the launch location. We need to reach Yalta - we launch from the right bank of the Kherson region. We need to reach the Kerch Bridge - we launch from the Zaporozhye region.
But if we talk directly about the M39A1 (ATACMS Block IA), then to all its advantages there is one significant disadvantage added: in the warhead the number of submunitions has decreased to 300. Yes, this is still a significant potential, but still 950 is more than 300, not so is it?
In addition, the Kerch Bridge cannot be destroyed by a missile with a cluster warhead, although field camps and airfields in Crimea will be “alarming.”
But the US has other ATACMS at 300 km. For example, the M48 missile was produced in limited quantities (no more than 100), since it represented an intermediate stage in the transition from the M39 to the M57. On the other hand, since the US Army does not need it as a serial product, we may well get it to reset the stock of what should be allocated budgetary funds for disposal.
The M48 has a warhead weighing 230 kg of high-explosive fragmentation penetrating type. In other words, the specialization of its use is high-precision destruction of individual objects. For example, decision-making centers, bunker-type headquarters and various kinds of illegal buildings in the Kerch Strait area.
But most likely, in the foreseeable future, Ukraine may receive M57 missiles.
The main highlight of this missile is the WAU-23/B penetrating warhead, which is much more effective and powerful than the M48 warhead.
Another option is M57E1. I don’t think we can get these missiles right away, but it’s still possible. The fact is that the M57E1 is a project to modernize the existing M39 and M39A1 to the M57 modification, including replacing the warhead with the WAU-23/B warhead.
But unlike the serial M57, the E1 modification has an electronic rangefinder that allows you to initiate an air explosion, rather than a contact one.
An air explosion of a high-explosive fragmentation warhead allows one to cover a significantly larger surface area than a contact, penetrating type explosion. And it is most effective when used against a concentration of equipment and manpower.
conclusions
Today, the United States has ATACMS missiles on its balance sheet, of which only the M39 modification (ATACMS Block I) has a target engagement range of 165 km, all others – 300 km. And all these modifications may well be transferred to Ukraine, and we need all of them.
The peculiarities of the use of each of these modifications will make it possible to fight equally effectively against airfields, manpower, accumulation of equipment, as well as separate bunker-type objects and simply illegal construction in the middle of the strait. The destruction range allows it to cover all temporarily occupied territories.
But the main problem in the transfer of this type of weapons to Ukraine still remains the Republicans, who are mired in the political struggle for power and neglect the interests of the state and security in the world for the sake of their interests.
