In the current realities of Ukraine, whether we wish it or not, we only have two “persons of the year”. Our future largely depends on the interaction between them.
Who lost more
Just like a year ago, the leaders in terms of trust among Ukrainians are President Vladimir Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. However, if we compare them with each other, the ratio has noticeably changed in favor of Zaluzhny.
Before discussing the reasons, let's look at the numbers. The table shows the results of surveys of the “Rating” group (November 2022 and November 2023) and KIIS (December 2022 and two options for December 2023).
Trust level, %
A year ago, Ukrainians showed almost equal confidence in the main politician and the main military man. Zelensky was even slightly ahead. However, a year later, he is already behind Zaluzhny by 11%, according to the Rating group, and by 15-26%, according to KIIS.
The distance is even more noticeable if we compare not the level of trust, but the balance of trust-distrust, that is, the difference between the levels of trust and distrust.
Balance of trust-distrust, %
In terms of the balance of trust and distrust, Zaluzhny is ahead of Zelensky by 26%, according to the “Rating” group, and by 32-40%, according to KIIS.
It is obvious that society has accumulated many questions for the authorities over the past year. Expectations of major military successes during the counteroffensive did not materialize. Under these conditions, one could expect a decrease in trust and an increase in distrust in both the political and military leadership. However, this affected Zaluzhny less noticeably than Zelensky.
Five reasons
It is necessary to understand the reasons for this phenomenon, first of all, in order to understand what to expect in the future. We can name five factors that played against Zelensky. We will list them in no particular order and leave it to the readers to rank them by importance.
Scandals. Zelensky got into scandals, Zaluzhny did not. The year 2023 was marked by a series of corruption scandals involving Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov (dismissed on September 5), officials from the President’s Office, and “servants of the people” in parliament. Zelensky either did not react to the scandals at all, or reacted very late. For example, the noise around eggs at 17 UAH for the army arose back in January, but in February Reznikov announced that Zelensky had decided to leave him in his post. Over the next six months, a lot of negativity was added about the procurement of the Ministry of Defense, and all this hit Zelensky hard: in the eyes of people, by keeping Reznikov, he covered up for those who stole from the army. We also note that in the fall, volunteers , businessmen , and military industry enterprises publicly complained that the authorities were deliberately blocking their activities, and blamed the Office of the President for this. But there was no public reaction from Zelensky.
Empty promises. At Bankova they promised a quick victory, but Zaluzhny did not. The president's office specifically used the telethon to instill in Ukrainians the expectation of an imminent victory. Leading political strategist of Bankova, adviser to the head of the OP, Mikhail Podolyak, said in a telethon last November: “ In six months I will make a special trip to the Yalta embankment , I have a favorite place there. I’ll get involved from there, I guarantee you. And we will talk to you about what a free Crimea will be like. But by that time all the Russians who stole our property will have left from there.” Zelensky himself also made similar promises. In January, after the next Headquarters, he announced: “2023 should be and will definitely be the year of our victory! “On February 24, at a press conference on the anniversary of the start of the great war, he confirmed: “I am sure that there will be victory. I really want it to be this year. We have everything for this : motivation, confidence, friends, diplomacy.” Well, the people were expecting a quick victory, since we had everything we needed.
Intrigue. On Bankovaya they are intriguing against Zaluzhny, Zaluzhny does not enter the public field at all, and this distinguishes him favorably. You can recall how the deputy head of the OP, Igor Zhovkva, during a telethon, showed indignation at Zaluzhny’s article in the British magazine The Economist. And almost every week new details appear in the online media about how Bankova is preparing Zaluzhny’s resignation. As a recent KIIS survey showed, 43% of Ukrainians believe that there are certain differences, tensions and misunderstandings between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of respondents - 72% - said that if Zelensky had fired Zaluzhny and installed another general in the place of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they would have reacted negatively to this . And only 2% said positively. “Some government officials continue an active media campaign against the commander-in-chief,” said Anton Grushetsky, executive director of KIIS. “Such criticism against Zaluzhny will most likely have a negative impact not on him, but on the political power of Ukraine as a whole.”
False. Zelensky, compared to Zaluzhny, has much more opportunities to promote himself during the war and makes the most of it. In his video messages to citizens, he regularly talks about meetings of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Headquarters and how Zaluzhny and other generals report to him. And even in reports from the combat zone, telethon viewers see Zelensky much more often than Zaluzhny. But here, it seems, Bankova’s political strategists have lost their sense of proportion. In 2022, Zelensky did not interfere (at least publicly) in the decisions of Zaluzhny and the General Staff, and focused his public activity on international contacts to provide the Armed Forces with weapons. However, in 2023, Zelensky began to behave as if he knew better than the military how to fight. It is doubtful that during a major war, Ukrainians would believe in Zelensky’s military talent and in his ability to competently evaluate Zaluzhny. They would rather believe in Bankova’s political jealousy of the general.
Lost opportunities. After the start of the big war, the level of trust of Ukrainians in all bodies of Ukrainian government increased sharply - this applied to the president, parliament, and government. Sociologists call this “unite around the flag” - people thus show their patriotism and faith in victory over the enemy. But for this trust to be maintained, the government must meet people's expectations. It must also demonstrate the ability to “unite around the flag” - that is, around Ukraine and, above all, around the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But Ukrainians did not see the desire of the authorities to join forces with other pro-Ukrainian political forces, but instead see regular campaigns against the patriotic opposition and city mayors. Meanwhile, the public demand for unity has not gone away - and this also reduces the level of trust in the authorities and specifically in Zelensky.
What will happen in 2024?
Most likely, distrust and suspicion on the part of Bankova towards the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will grow. This is definitely bad for the country. If it comes to Zaluzhny’s resignation, it’s generally sad; if not, it’s just bad.
If the chief politician and the chief military man distrust each other, doubt each other, then this will inevitably affect the defense capability, the morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the attitude of the people towards the authorities as a whole. And this, of course, will not inspire Western partners to give us more weapons and money.
From the point of view of the interests of Ukraine, that is, the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we need more than just a working relationship between the president and the commander-in-chief. Excellent mutual understanding is needed. And for this, to begin with, everyone must mind their own business.
