What troubles await Ukraine without US money?

“We don't appreciate what we have until we lose it.

And Western financial assistance is a clear example of this. And no, we haven't lost her yet. But even the risks that, due to election politicking in the United States, we may not receive money make us understand and feel what would have happened without this unprecedented help. Help that has no analogues in world history. The total volume of already agreed amounts that Ukraine has received since the beginning of the year is $277 billion. This has never happened before.

And the presence of such help is taken for granted.

Just like the fact that during the war we have a stable exchange rate and the black market does not differ 100 times from the official one.

As well as the fact that during the war, inflation in the country dropped to 5 percent, that is, almost non-existent, despite the standard jumps in egg prices.

As well as the fact that despite the war, which has been going on for 2 years, taxes have not yet been increased in Ukraine. Moreover, tax breaks were in effect for some time. This is nonsense during the war, actually.

Just like the fact that we have stores full of not only goods, but also people who buy these goods. And this cannot be blamed on corrupt officials. No, corrupt officials are talking about buying premium cars during the war, and that’s also there, but supermarkets are filled with ordinary people. Whether it’s a miracle or not, economists are constantly asked on television what’s going on with the growth of people’s incomes. During the war. During the aggression of a strong enemy. During the occupation of part of the territory by a nuclear power, which throws its missiles and suicide bombs every day.

In Ukraine, social payments and bank payments did not stop for a day. Pensions and scholarships are paid like clockwork.

People seem to have begun to take this anomalous situation for granted. Forgetting that this is a fucking miracle. This is a unique story. So, in general, it doesn’t happen.

And so suddenly the appearance of talk about Plan B from the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance suddenly took everyone by surprise. How are these “unpopular steps”? How so? We don't want to. Give an increase in pensions and salaries.

And we must understand that so far all analysts are laying down Plan A. That is, they expect that sooner or later the Americans will vote to help us. Therefore, Plan B is simply a necessity “for work.” They must have it.

But what could be there?

On the part of the National Bank, this is, of course, the launch of a printing press. With corresponding consequences that cannot be avoided if something happens. That is, high inflation as a result of the devaluation of the hryvnia. We saw this in the summer of 2022, while Western aid was not yet systematized and did not arrive rhythmically.

From the Ministry of Finance - an increase in taxes, including on consumption. Yes, yes, we are talking about excise taxes and VAT. And taxes for businesses, including those who rely on simplified schemes without having the moral right to do so. And tariff increases. Up to market level. Because there will no longer be money to pay the difference and cover preferential tariffs for everyone. That is, an increase in the cost of electricity and heating. Radical growth.

You could also look for money at customs. Certainly. But you and I are adults and we understand that they won’t find it there anyway, but the money will already be needed.

Is this pleasant? Of course not. And it’s good that this is only plan B as a last resort. But we need to talk about it. To appreciate what we have more. To understand what Western money is saving us from. And not to do anything stupid that could weaken our support.”