What food products will become more expensive in Ukraine

Indeed, we are now seeing a decline in food prices. First of all, this applies to vegetables. But with every price reduction there usually comes an increase. So this year, too, the summer joy for consumers is gradually turning into the autumn rise in prices for livestock products.

An egg is not 17, but not 2.50 either.

The eggs were the first to give up and began to show signs of price turmoil. You won’t find them for 2.5 UAH/piece anymore, like in June-July. The average value for the market is 37–41 UAH/dozen (twice cheaper than in Europe), somewhere there are already 50 UAH. Please note that we are talking about unpackaged products. Traditionally, packaged eggs are more expensive.

Meat and dairy are at risk. Ukrainians buy mainly fermented milk products. There is less cheese, and they prefer imported, Polish ones, which are cheaper and, according to buyers, tastier.

What is available are vegetables. Prices for the base of borscht - potatoes, carrots, beets, onions, cabbage - have collapsed. Carrots - 9.9 UAH/kg, beets - 8 UAH - small, 12 UAH / kg - large. Potatoes - from 9 to 27 UAH depending on the variety. Cabbage is also about 10 UAH/kg. A young one has appeared (late varieties) - 30 UAH each. In the future, everything will depend on the quality of the harvest.

Onions, which were almost golden back in the spring (with price tags of 70+), are now 9-10 UAH/kg. Farmers themselves predict that in March-April 2024, prices for golden beans may jump to 25-30 UAH.

Bell pepper (Belozerka) - 25–30 UAH/kg. Sellers say that this price will remain the same for a week or two. But tomatoes are already starting to gain price. Tomatoes from the field - 20-25 UAH. Homemade, varietal - 50 UAH and even higher.

By the way, this season the consumer has a little more room for maneuver when choosing; you can shuttle between a store, market, fair and your own garden. At fairs that are held despite air raids, vegetables are offered in bags. Mainly Odessa and Nikolaev regions.

These are no longer products from “my uncle’s garden.” It lies and pleases the eye. Potatoes for 10 UAH/kg, onions for 20 UAH.

And also melon. After all, last year’s super prices for watermelons (before the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station) increased the population’s interest in watermelons and melons.

It didn't get to the point

Indeed, they brought in so many watermelons that it’s dizzying: imported, domestic. Farmers, having heard enough myths about how consumers suffer without Kherson watermelons, decided to try it in almost all areas.

They gave birth in the Poltava region, and in the Kirovograd region, and in the Cherkasy region, even in the Rivne region. The Ministry of Agriculture released information: as of mid-August, 38 thousand tons of watermelons and 12.4 thousand tons of melons were collected.

The only problem is that there are very few people willing to buy. Even after the price collapse from 50 UAH/kg in June to 15–20 UAH/kg in August - early September.

In addition to complaints about the price, there are many complaints about the quality. Sometimes they simply don’t take the risk of buying, because sellers mix new batches of goods with those imported at the beginning of August, as a result the buyer plays roulette. Prices are reduced to 10 UAH/kg, but there is still no queue.

To stimulate demand, traders at markets and even retailers sell watermelons in halves, quarters, and in some places even divided into eight parts. It’s good that the supply began to grow, so it didn’t come down to slices.

Whose cream

High prices in the first half of the year, especially in the fruit and vegetable segment, again allowed retail and foreign agricultural producers to earn money.

A few numbers. The Customs Service informs that over seven months Ukraine spent more than $206 million in foreign currency on imported vegetables.

Almost 6.5 thousand tons of potatoes worth $12.6 million were imported to the domestic market. Azerbaijan, Germany, and Romania earned the most.

Tomatoes - 96 thousand tons for $78 million. The biggest winners are Turkey (76% of total imports for seven months), Poland, the Netherlands.

Onions were imported 51 thousand tons for $67 million, from which the Poles, Dutch, and Egyptians made good money. Carrots, turnips, beets, celery were imported 18 thousand tons for 31 million dollars, cucumbers - 21 thousand tons for 17.7 million.

What awaits us tomorrow

If in the vegetable segment there is a seasonal decline in prices, then livestock products are becoming more expensive due to logistics and rising energy costs.

If we compare the figures, over the year the prices for pork have increased the most - by as much as 53 UAH per kilo. Based on July results, our average price in Ukraine is 197.6 UAH/kg.

Beef has increased in price by 23 UAH and is offered at 223.5 UAH/kg. Poultry meat (carcass) went up in price by 10 UAH and settled at 90.37 UAH/kg (about half the price in Europe). Chicken fillet - 153.56 UAH/kg versus 133.6 UAH/kg in July 2022.

Even without autumn expectations, prices in the meat and dairy department are sometimes amazing. Especially boiled sausage at 530 UAH/kg. The average price for “varenka” is 200–300 UAH.

What, besides vegetables, has really fallen in price?

One of the most stable products is sunflower oil (despite rapid price fluctuations). Moreover, oil is one of two products that have become slightly cheaper compared to July 2022. Now the average price in Ukraine is 65 UAH/liter versus 70 UAH in July 2022.

Manufacturers do not undertake to predict prices for sunflower oil, arguing that pricing is influenced by many factors. Even the cost of oil. Thus, according to the Ukrmasloprom association, every increase in the cost of a barrel of oil by $10 leads to an increase in the cost of a ton of oil by $30–50.

Should we expect any unpleasant surprises from sunflower oil? More likely no than yes. But we must remember that the high level of supply does not always determine the price on the shelf.

The second item in the grocery portfolio that has fallen slightly in price is flour. Based on the results of July 2023, the price per kilogram was fixed at 16.29 UAH, in July 2022 - 17.89, in August 2022 - 17.41 UAH.

Now there is no reason to talk about a significant increase in prices. At the same time, we note that some mills are already having difficulties purchasing high-quality wheat, which means that some increase in flour prices is possible in the near future.

There is talk in the agricultural community that in some regions wheat of the 2nd and 3rd classes will not reach more than 10% in total. The low quality of wheat significantly supports prices. Expensive raw materials, you understand, also drag down the prices of the finished product. Especially for cookies and other confectionery products.

Bread prices are higher compared to July last year. Rye and wheat-rye increased in price by 3 UAH and stopped at 36 UAH/kg.

Consumer Ball

The fact that vegetable prices have fallen is a plus for consumers. By the way, the number of customers in stores has decreased several times. Even the first ten days of September did not change the situation. Now in supermarkets with 30 checkouts or more, only five (with cashiers) plus a self-service area can operate. There are no queues as a phenomenon.

If the market really has decreased by 15 million consumers, then retail will take a very, very balanced approach to the issue of price. True, given the fact that the government abandoned daily monitoring of food prices in favor of weekly monitoring, stores have a free hand.

While consumers are stocking up on onions and potatoes, the food market is already preparing for new price hikes. After every fall, growth inevitably comes.