Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are very accurate, indicating that Russian troops have assistance in identifying targets, international experts analyze.
Voice of America journalists have collected expert analysis on why Ukraine is experiencing the greatest attacks on its energy sector right now, and not in winter, and what should be a sufficient response from the West to these attacks.
Russia has continued to strike Ukrainian energy facilities for several weeks. The losses from the March attacks have not yet been fully assessed, but we are talking about billions, the Ministry of Energy says. Since last Friday, as a result of Russian shelling, about 200,000 subscribers have been left without electricity in the Kharkov region and Zaporozhye, and tens of thousands of subscribers without electricity in Odessa, local authorities reported on March 26.
The impact damaged the generation, the restoration of which requires time and money. Suppliers say that repairing energy facilities will take months, and that it will take years to restore the Dnieper hydroelectric station.
The Russians knew where to hit to cause the most damage, says British analyst Aura Sabadus. She assumes that the Russian military uses the services of Russian power engineers who have been familiar with the Ukrainian energy system since Soviet times.
“It’s extraordinary that they know exactly where to hit,” Sabadus said of the Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities on March 22. “This means that they are working with energy specialists on their side who clearly know the Ukrainian system, and are likely helping the military strike key Ukrainian infrastructure.”
The expert recalls that the system was built in Soviet times, and power engineers in Russia are well aware of the Ukrainian distribution network and the energy system as a whole.
Just like “the Ukrainians themselves, apparently, they know the Russian system,” she adds.
Why now?
Although many predicted large-scale impacts on the energy sector in the winter, the biggest attack on energy infrastructure came in the spring, when the heating season was almost over. University of Pennsylvania and Harvard researcher Benjamin Schmitt believes Russia has stepped up its strikes now because it is trying to take advantage of the delay in US aid.
“Why did they decide to attack now? Partly because they want to take advantage of the time when the United States in particular has not yet irresponsibly approved military funding for Ukraine. This is forcing Ukraine to use more air defenses now that the US is not replenishing artillery and necessary air defenses,” Schmitt tells VOA's Ukrainian Service.
The US Congress has not yet approved US President Joe Biden's request for assistance to Ukraine. The House of Representatives may return to consider the bill after the Easter recess on April 9.
Schmitt calls on US lawmakers to "immediately approve additional funding legislation to significantly replenish Ukraine's stockpile and change Putin's bombing calculations."
There was no blackout of the power grid
The purpose of the Russian strike on April 22 was not just to damage, but, like last year, to cause a large-scale disruption in the country’s energy system, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Gerashchenko wrote on Facebook. However, the system did not collapse.
In more than two years of war, Ukrainian power engineers have proven their endurance, extreme skill and courage in quickly restoring power supplies, observers say. Sabadus is delighted with the “supernatural”, “superhuman” work that Ukrainians do to keep light in their homes.
“Ukraine is doing absolutely supernatural, superhuman work to keep the lights on. Ukrainian engineers sacrifice their lives so that there is light, but the reality is that Ukraine needs defense. We need to protect the infrastructure as much as we protect the population,” she points out.
Ukrenergo assures that the situation in Ukraine is now better than last year, there are enough repair teams, specialized equipment and materials. “In this situation, the situation is significantly different from the last heating season, when equipment was in short supply. The only limiting factor is the certain time it takes to carry out all the repair work,” the organization said in a statement on March 26.
Ukraine was also able to significantly increase electricity exports from Europe. Ukraine joined the European energy grid during the war - in December last year. On March 26, the volume of electricity imports to Ukraine reached a record level for this year, Ukrenergo reported.
The West faces a choice: either Ukraine attacks Russian refineries, or the West actually ensures the effectiveness of oil sanctions against Russia
The President of the Russian Federation, who is accustomed to using energy as a weapon, does not abandon his tactics, says Benjamin Schmitt, a researcher at the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard. Putin hopes Ukrainians will tire of the attacks and ask for a ceasefire in exchange for surrendering territory, Schmitt says. The researcher is convinced that this will not happen.
“The Ukrainians are making it very clear that they will never give up their territorial integrity and sovereignty,” he says.
But Western sanctions, according to the analyst, are not effective enough. He points out that the West faces a choice - either accept that Ukraine's attacks on oil refineries in Russia are physically limiting the Kremlin's resources for war, or significantly increase the effectiveness of sanctions.
Oil refineries in Russia are "legitimate military targets from the Ukrainians' point of view, and they believe that this is a way of imposing physical sanctions on Russian energy when Western sanctions have not had the desired effect," Schmitt says.
Ukrainian strikes can be regarded as compensation for the ineffectiveness of oil sanctions against Russia, he adds.
The researcher believes that the Group of Seven and the EU have set the price limit on Russian oil at too high a level - $60 per barrel.
Schmitt also considers US measures against the Russian shadow fleet insufficient. 20 ships of this fleet were subject to sanctions, and the United States announced its intention to continue to impose sanctions against such ships.
“I think it's gotten to the point where if you don't want Ukraine to attack Russian refineries, then the transatlantic community needs to really get involved in enforcing oil sanctions at scale,” the analyst says, suggesting that more EU and US law enforcement officers should be hired to enforce compliance with sanctions.
Let us recall that on March 22, the Financial Times, citing three unnamed individuals, reported that the United States called on Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries, because this, they say, could increase world oil prices and provoke revenge from the Russian Federation. Later, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, denied that Washington had approached Ukraine with such demands. “This is bogus information,” he said.
The director of the Center for Energy Research, Alexander Kharchenko, also pointed out that such information was unconfirmed. He suggested that journalists from a reputable British publication could have been provided with information by people involved in the Russian intelligence services.
“To be honest, it seems that this article, that it was more likely that Russian intelligence services worked with it, rather than American individuals providing information for it. Because, unfortunately, the argumentation that is presented there, for a person working in the energy sector, it looks quite ridiculous and very unprofessional,” Kharchenko noted in a commentary for the Voice of America.
When asked by the Voice of America to comment on the information in the Financial Times article, the White House responded on March 22: “We have always stated that we do not encourage or facilitate attacks inside Russia.”
Rosatom is helping the Russian occupiers intimidate Ukrainian workers at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
In the West, calls for sanctions against the Russian nuclear company Rosatom are increasingly heard.
Sabadus points out that Rosatom is helping the occupiers terrorize Ukrainian workers at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
"Rosatom is helping the army, and it is extraordinary that there are no sanctions against them yet, because they allowed the army to store ammunition on the territory of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, there are also documented reports that they contribute to the terrorist regime and turned the Zaporozhye power plant into a chamber of terror for Ukrainian plant workers." , says the expert.
The Atlantic magazine also wrote about the detention, interrogation, beatings and murders that workers at the Russian-occupied Zaporozhye nuclear power plant have faced since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Thus, an employee arrested at the end of his shift “was accused of communicating with the Ukrainian authorities, and investigators beat him and tried to force him to give false testimony,” the article says.
Other ZNPP employees said that up to 20 prisoners were held in cells designed for 4-6 people without any food, except for what relatives could provide.
