Today, unfortunately, we know only one thing for certain: Valery Zaluzhny and the two dozen officers from his team, with their experience, mistakes and victories, are not needed by the system.
President Vladimir Zelensky invited ex-head Valery Zaluzhny to go to London. The idol of millions and the leader of not only trust ratings, but also political ones, agreed with a not too heavy heart. Because I'm tired. Because he doesn’t want to plunge into the mud of politics and because he considers London, where he has established good human and professional contacts, to be the best option for continuing his career.
As a result, Bankova’s technological calculation to knock off an extremely annoying figure from the electoral field ideally overlapped with Zaluzhny’s unwillingness to become a politician and constitute a real competitor to Zelensky in the future presidential elections. However, history loves surprises. And capable students, when given homework during the holidays, sometimes complete it brilliantly.
Today Zaluzhny is not ready not only for the struggle to govern the country, but also for governing it itself. He doesn't have very many of the necessary personal expertise for the job. He does not have a team and criteria for its selection. After all, it is very important to clearly understand why you want this. Who will you achieve this with? What rules and goals will you offer to a wounded and broken society and economy.
Is General Zaluzhny, greedy for knowledge, but far from politics and government, using the golden time correctly? What kind of people will he fill his empty political vessel with the knowledge of? Will you want to prepare for a big goal? And will people’s love for the Commander-in-Chief stand the test of distance and time in conditions when Bankovaya will make every effort to dilute it?
During his tenure as Commander-in-Chief and after his resignation, ZN.UA kept in touch with the general’s team, and sometimes with himself.
Incompatibility of idols
No matter how much you tell the people: “Do not make yourself an idol,” they will not listen. Any people. And even more so during the war, when it is difficult not to love anyone, not to rely on anyone, not to see a father and protector in anyone. Perhaps it would be appropriate to call for critical thinking, but it is not worth it, because in the modern world this is a relic of the past and there is no point in remembering it at all, because only a small number of people have preserved it.
After the majority of the people fell out of love with Zelensky and at the same time became disillusioned with the once adored Arestovich, Zaluzhny remained virtually the only or at least dominant representative of the authorities (he in no way considers himself a politician), the people’s love for whom remained and grew stronger. This is evidenced by all the open ratings that sociologists-hypozhers show us, and the closed surveys that bank residents constantly see. Obviously, these figures became one of the main reasons for Zelensky’s separation from Zaluzhny as Commander-in-Chief.
Due to internal political competition, provoked by painful ambitions and the jealous nature of the president, accustomed to solo applause, they could no longer work together. After all, trust was destroyed, and as a result, unity of command in the army, and Headquarters turned into a systematic flogging and humiliation of Zaluzhny.
Many believe that Zaluzhny angered Zelensky because in December 2023 he did not want to take on the figure of 500 thousand, voiced by the president as necessary for mobilization. In fact, their relationship soured immediately after the Russians withdrew from Kyiv. It was from then on that unity of action disappeared. The President did not tolerate objections and disputes as such, and Zaluzhny sometimes allowed himself to do so. The story of Zaluzhny’s presidential ambitions poured poison into the crack of irritation. And the crack turned into a split between the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the Commander-in-Chief, which is unacceptable during a war.
Embrace of Power
Zaluzhny is one of those military men, that military bone that does not bend before the enemy, but bends in the arms of civil power. For us at ZN.UA, these hugs did not come as a surprise. Although it can be assumed that Zaluzhny, defiantly hugging Zelensky during the final award ceremony after his resignation, not only demonstrated the character trait of a man of the system, but also extinguished public dissatisfaction with Zelensky’s decision to remove him. Obviously, he does not consider the current time suitable for public confrontation or civil conflict. And this may have been his first political decision.
The entire Zaluzhny team, sent to the disposal of the Minister of Defense, was made clear that there was no place for them in the country’s current defense system. Full General Zaluzhny passed the Military Military Commission and received a conclusion that he was unfit for military service. According to ZN.UA, Zaluzhny wrote a report on his dismissal from military service back in February, which lay on the desk of the new Minister of Defense Umerov for several weeks.
Why did he write the report? Yes, because he knew that he and any of his team of experienced and significant generals in the Ukrainian army would not be given command of anything else. They will not even be allowed to teach at the National Defense University of Ukraine. They will have no place to apply themselves. And two months after transferring to the disposal of the Minister of Defense, they will receive only rank. In particular, Zaluzhny would receive 1,762 hryvnia for the title, without being able to do anything.
To retire and do something else, he needs to leave the service. Question: where? With such popularity, experience and age, it seems too early to live in an apiary.
Fear of politics
Could Zaluzhny have stayed in Ukraine and engaged in politics, as those who saw in the general an alternative to the unprofessional and corrupt government expected of him? Yes, perhaps, he could create his own public organization and begin to form a team. But he didn't want to. At least at this stage. Politics irritates and repels him. He is frightened by his dependence on the oligarchs, whose money no one has ever managed before in an election. He is at a loss from the need to create a team outside the corset of the army’s sole subordination. He doesn’t like the rudeness of comments and attacks from bot farms, putting his life on display for everyone who will tell him where he should defend his dissertation, with whom he should or should not take a selfie, discuss his children, family, wife, and so on. The general's armor cannot be compared to thin human skin.
Zaluzhny is simply not ready to be Danko now. Will he be ready for this later and will he be needed by society when he may be ready? There is no answer to this question. Zaluzhny has time to develop the competencies that he lacks and to understand himself. He has time to take into account the mistakes of Zelensky, who decided to run for president in 2014, instructing him to prepare a package of documents for registration with the Central Election Commission, and then for five years he was only preparing for how to get into this chair, completely ignoring other tasks: why? get into it, with what knowledge and with whom.
Zaluzhny (assuming that the people will be so patient that they will wait and not find another idol) has time to understand the principle of operation of the state, parliament, local authorities, energy, economics, and comprehensive foreign policy. Zaluzhny loves to study, and academically. For him, the dissertation at the Kivalov Academy, which actually became a discrediting factor for his supporters, was extremely important. For political strategists, a person who does not see problems in the place where he defends his dissertation and takes selfies with odious political characters is an easy target. Let him study.
Now the honored, world-famous military leader is an empty political vessel, which must be filled if he wants to go into politics.
Another thing is who will do this? Or have you already started? But we don’t know this. Because Zaluzhny fought (how truly successfully is not the topic of this analysis) and never formed his own political team. People who hung around and ingratiated themselves into confidence are now not taken into account. The main bet has not been made. First of all, Zaluzhny himself, who will have to be responsible for what kind of people, what thoughts and ideas of what quality will fill his future. And it is possible - the future of the country.
However, it will not be so easy for Valery Zaluzhny to work on himself, since the ambassador to Britain is, with all due respect, not the ambassador to Switzerland. After all, it is possible that the chaos in America will force London to take the lead in supporting Ukraine.
Naive Ambassador
In the entire history of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, no one has ever made advance statements about sending an agrement - a request for the country’s consent to grant all diplomatic privileges and rights to the new ambassador. Such a statement violates diplomatic ethics, all written and unwritten rules of diplomacy. Even if non-public consultations and agreements between the parties have already taken place. But Bankovaya forced the Minister of Foreign Affairs to take this unprecedented step. Obviously, those in the presidential circle were afraid that Zaluzhny would change his mind. Plus we don't have a foreign minister who can tell the president that this is indecent. That's it.
Probably, we shouldn’t reproach Dmytro Kuleba for this and hope that in his place there might be a person appointed by Zelensky, capable of saying no to the president when he violates laws, rules and decency. After all, everyone has long understood that we only exchange awl for soap, even if it is Artyom.
So everyone was predicted for the post of ambassador in London: Reznikov, Kuleba, and Kostin, but Zaluzhny hit the jackpot. But whether he will become a good ambassador is a big question.
A good ambassador is one who always has the opportunity to call the president, convey the necessary information to him, express his own opinion and defend his position, if necessary. Will Zelensky pick up the phone if Zaluzhny calls him? There are big doubts. Will the president be able to calmly listen to the recommendations of Ambassador Zaluzhny, given that no matter what conversation they had at Headquarters, they began to quarrel with each other within two minutes due to accumulated irritation? There are no miracles.
The British side, like any host country, will, of course, try to use the ambassador as a person who can quickly convey the necessary signal to the most important ears. But when they are convinced that a person can neither convey information nor defend it once, twice, thirdly, fourthly, they will understand that this is a trumpet into which they can shout, but no one will hear on the other side. Do you think they won't lose interest in the war hero?
At the same time, Zaluzhny himself does not have the slightest idea of what an embassy and the work of an ambassador are. The staff of almost any embassy is a terrarium where “they crush, strangle, cut for every extra pound.” This is a submarine with all the crew problems that entails. And after the festive meeting, the new ambassador will face reality. Which will manifest itself in daily denunciations against him to the SVR, GUR, SBU, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Bankova. Everyone follows their own trajectory.
For any departure from the host country, any significant meeting, arrival in Ukraine, attracting a sponsor for a reception, or replacing an embassy employee, he will have to obtain permission from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. His every move, every conversation will be known on Bankovaya. For a career diplomat, these are familiar living conditions, but for a general who commanded hundreds of thousands, this is captivity.
And he will also need to knock out some penny for the maintenance of the embassy, the purchase of a photocopier and paper for it, persuading clerks from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whom he will not even look at with binoculars, but who will drink him as much blood as he did not donate for the soldiers.
Chain dogs
Zaluzhny wants peace. At least at this stage. He doesn't want to anger the "Mad Hatter", a man with a nervous system torn to shreds, by his presence at his table. A man who has in his hands a pack of watchdogs: one is called the GBR, the second is BEB, the third is SBU. Zaluzhny understands perfectly well that their eyes are already bloodshot. And, apparently, he does not consider it possible for himself to dance in a protective suit on the canine training ground.
Actual criminal cases in which he may be charged began to be opened on April 11, 2022. And such cases multiplied. They are kept secret, but they exist. And if he had stayed here and, for example, created some kind of think tank or NGO with Millie to protect the rights of active military personnel, he could easily have survived the attack of these dogs. Because he would be under Teflon public protection.
Now we see how, as expected, society reacted violently to the decision of the Commander-in-Chief. It is still looking for explanations: “Zelensky forced him”, “Zaluzhny didn’t want to, but there was no choice”, “he will be useful in London”... People are still feverishly coming up with some kind of justification for the fictional political hero.
And this is not a political hero. He is a military man. And his legs are simply falling apart due to the political crisis unleashed by betrayal and greed. Civil courage and military courage are different courages. Not all activists who take it upon themselves to confront the corrupt system will go across the front line to blow up bridges. In the same way, many military personnel will not fight bureaucratic arbitrariness for the sake of the future of the country. Remelting a person’s consciousness from the system into a free citizen is hard internal work.
And when people realize that their idol did not live up to their trust, did not cope with the mission entrusted to him by the people, and left the race, the ratings will fall. Is Zaluzhny insured against the fact that after his ratings fall, these dogs will not be unleashed on him?
...We don’t know how Valery Zaluzhny will use his London holidays, having accepted President Zelensky’s offer. Will he become a good ambassador, or will he use the time to melt his consciousness, learning to think as a statesman and form a team for future political activities? All this is his personal choice and decisions, on which something in our history may depend.
As a result, we can forget him and give a second term to Zelensky, who is prone to authoritarianism. Or, if Zaluzhny’s rating remains the same, but his competencies do not increase, get a second Yushchenko at the head of the country, who will be brought into power on the stove and left at the top, where he will believe that he no longer owes anything to anyone. Or maybe we will see the birth of a third idol. After all, a holy place is never empty.
All this is part of a series of predictions. But today, unfortunately, we only know one thing for sure: Valery Zaluzhny and the two dozen officers from his team, with their experience, mistakes and victories, are not needed by the system. The most obvious thing during the war would be to use these people for victory, but they are not needed because they were not to their liking. How thousands of competent people turned out to be unnecessary to the state.
