Since March 22, Russia has been deliberately attacking Ukrainian energy facilities in various areas with missiles and drones, resulting in serious damage to thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and electrical networks. Focus spoke with experts to find out about the scale of the destruction, the expected recovery period for the stations, and whether massive consumer outages are predicted.
Russian missiles seriously damaged Ukrainian thermal and hydroelectric power plants. Today, March 29, according to information from NEC Ukrenergo, electricity supply restrictions are in effect in Krivoy Rog and Kharkiv regions, as well as in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Kirovograd regions. In the evening, the Ukrenergo dispatch center was forced to apply emergency shutdown schedules for the period of evening maximum consumption also in Sumy, Poltava and Donetsk regions. “As a result of a massive overnight attack, thermal and hydroelectric power stations were damaged. Inspection of damage continues at the facilities, and the State Emergency Service is working if necessary. At the same time, high-voltage power lines of 330 kV Ukrenergo were damaged, and emergency restoration work began. At power plants that were damaged during the attack on March 22, debris removal and restoration of damage continue,” Ukrenergo reported.
We prepared carefully: how Russia planned the destruction of Ukrainian energy
During the week from March 22 to 29, Russia carried out dozens of attacks on power plants in Ukraine, concentrating on attacks on maneuverable capacities, that is, thermal and hydroelectric power. As a result of the attack on March 22, the largest hydroelectric power station in Ukraine, the DneproHPP, received impressive damage, and the Ladyzhinskaya and Burshtynskaya thermal power plants of the DTEK company were also destroyed as a result of missile attacks. “There is a lot of destruction in the energy sector, primarily generation suffered. We have lost 50% of installed capacity. Two of our stations were damaged: Burshtynskaya and Ladyzhinskaya. All units at Burshtyn TPP and all at Ladyzhinskaya TPP were damaged. Power units are in varying degrees of destruction: from complete to more than 50%,” DTEK Executive Director Dmitry Sakharuk said in an interview with Economic Pravda.
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Director of the Energy Research Center Alexander Kharchenko believes that the Russians have long been planning a large-scale attack specifically on power plants in Ukraine. In his opinion, the attack on March 22 was the largest of the entire war. “They are implementing a specific plan that has clearly been developed over a long time. Developed very carefully, in detail, with reconnaissance, with an understanding of where the defense is being built, what objects, with planning attacks on objects. I think this is a consequence of the fact that during the attacks in November and December, the Moscow terrorists quickly found out that this did not produce results. High-voltage networks were quite reliably protected by physical protection, which they managed to build and continued to build, as well as air defense. That is, no blackout occurred, and then the tactics were changed, a lot of preparatory work was carried out by representatives of the Kremlin regime, a huge amount of information was collected and attacks were planned, which were aimed at breaking the Ukrainian energy system into several parts in the first wave and trying to cause a cascading accident due to for the generation and consumption departments,” Alexander Kharchenko told Focus.
The expert noted: Russian attacks on the energy sector have changed significantly recently. “The attacks have become different. They send a large number of missiles and drones at each target that is attacked. And even with air defense, they simply break through this defense. Even if some (missiles and drones) are shot down, most of Ukraine is still without proper cover,” the expert states.
Attacks were planned that aimed to break the Ukrainian power grid into several parts and try to cause a cascading failure due to the separation of generation and consumption
According to Alexander Kharchenko, Russia decided to attack power plants - precisely maneuverable capacities - due to the fact that they have nothing else to attack. “Because they can't attack anything anymore. Our basic generation is the atom, but they are not yet so crazy as to attack nuclear power plants with missiles. Let’s thank God for this,” says the expert.
Meanwhile, according to Yuri Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute of Energy Strategies, attacks on the energy sector are part of the strategic military plan of the Russian Federation. “This is an attempt to bring Ukraine to the point where we independently decide that it is time to end this war, stop and agree to negotiations,” he noted.
Without maneuverable capacities: what threatens the destruction of thermal and hydroelectric power plants
Damage to thermal and hydroelectric power plants means a decrease in the volume of electrical energy produced in Ukraine at a time when there was not always enough of it before these attacks, and Ukraine often had to turn to the EU for emergency assistance. Experts cannot yet say exactly how much power was lost due to rocket attacks, but various estimates indicate no less than 3 GW of power system capacity. Meanwhile, according to Alexander Kharchenko, in a week, as a result of attacks on the station, the Ukrainian system lost 10-12% of the volume of electricity production that was in the system before March 22.
However, in addition to the problem of the shortage of electrical energy caused by large-scale attacks by the Russian Armed Forces, there is another one: the lack of sufficient maneuverable capacity increases the need to reduce the volume of electricity produced by nuclear power plants - the main generation of Ukraine. That is, it is leading the country to large-scale blackouts, because a shortage of maneuverable capacities can lead to a global shortage of electricity production.
Major shutdowns should begin at the peak of consumption, which is forecast in June-August 2024
That is, Yuri Korolchuk theorizes, the possible plan of the Russians was to destroy a certain amount of maneuverable capacity, so that this would lead to the impossibility of balancing and, as a consequence, to the decision of Ukraine itself to begin to reduce the volume of production at nuclear power plants. According to Yuri Korolchuk, it is unlikely that Russia’s goal is to simply take over and destroy the energy system. “Rather, we can talk about the goal of bringing the situation in the energy system to such a “point” when the remnants of electricity production and generation facilities (NPPs) will switch off on their own or go into operation. periodic disconnection from the power system,” says Korolchuk. For consumers, such a rather apocalyptic scenario means large-scale and long-term power outages in all regions of Ukraine.
It is already obvious that the destruction of thermal and hydroelectric power plants affects the supply of electricity, because, for example, only on March 29, shutdown schedules were introduced for consumers in seven regions. Of course, power engineers will try to restore what was destroyed, although it will take at least 6-12 months to restore some power plant units, and in some cases we are talking about longer work. However, experts predict the largest outages not earlier than the end of May - beginning of June.
The situation in the energy system is critical, and many Ukrainians will have to feel the consequences of the March missile attacks in the form of temporary blackouts
“Mid-July and August is the first peak. Then next winter. I’m not ready to predict now what it will be like. But I understand that we walked the winter we went through on a knife’s edge, balancing emergency aid from Europe; if it hadn’t been there, there would have been restrictions. Now, after the capacity that was knocked out, I am sure that we will have to introduce restrictions during peak hours. I think it will be uniform across the country. There will be some restrictions for one or two hours, the work of industrial enterprises will be postponed overnight. There, a fairly large set of actions can be carried out in order to soften consumption schedules,” says Alexander Kharchenko.
Save the energy sector: what measures are important to implement to provide Ukrainians with electricity
Now that Ukraine is too close to a blackout, experts point to a number of actions that will need to be implemented to preserve the existing capacities and to provide electricity to consumers in those regions where the situation is most critical (in particular, in Kharkov).
First of all, we are talking about the import of electricity from EU countries. After all, since Ukraine has synchronized its energy system with the European ENTSO-E network, the country can now hope for help from the EU. “Import is very important, we can receive 2 GW from the EU countries,” says Kharchenko. And according to the chairman of the board of Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky, joining the ENTSO-E network allows Ukraine to count on European help in case of electricity shortages. Meanwhile, during March 28, a volume of 11,596 MWh was imported from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova to Ukraine, with a maximum power of up to 1,520 MW in certain hours, Ukrenergo reported.
Without strengthening air defense, it is useless to hope that it will be possible to preserve important objects of the energy system of Ukraine
It is important that work to restore the damage begins as soon as possible. According to the optimistic scenario, 50% of what was destroyed in the energy sector on March 22-29 can be restored before the start of the next heating season, Yuri Korolchuk believes. However, unfortunately, no one can guarantee that the next attacks will not damage other objects - other power plants. That is why, as President Vladimir Zelensky said today, the need for air defense has come to the fore. “Due to the intensity of Russian shelling, it is necessary to quickly replenish supplies. Instructed to strengthen work with partners. We count on their quick response,” Zelensky said.
Alexander Kharchenko sees a way out of the electricity shortage created by Russian attacks in quickly providing populated areas with gas piston generating units. “I don’t know where to get the money, I don’t know who is capable of organizing this, but we need to attract as much gas generation as we can attract. And we need special attention to the regions of Odessa and Kharkov, and we need to develop some kind of technical solution on how to heal them. I have the impression that the most effective option is to string 3-5 MW of gas piston engines there and thus help them cover both heat and electricity supplies,” says Alexander Kharchenko. And he adds: a significant help for the energy system will be the return to operation of the second power unit of the Khmelnitsky NPP, which was out for repairs. “Although this is not maneuverable, it is the 1 GW of capacity we need,” the expert noted.
