Following Grayscale's legal victory in its case against the SEC, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffarth and Eric Balchunas estimated the likelihood of launching a spot Bitcoin ETF before the end of 2023 at 75%.
“James and I are raising the odds of spot Bitcoin ETFs launching to 75% this year (95% by the end of 2024). Although we factored Grayscale's victory into our previous estimate of 65%, the unanimity and clarity of the decision exceeded all expectations, leaving the SEC with very little room for maneuver,” Balchunas said.
In his opinion, the legal and image losses of the regulator in the litigation widely covered by the mainstream media “make denial politically untenable.”
The deadline for the Commission to make decisions on applications for registration of Bitcoin funds from BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie is in early September. However, analysts expect delays.
“We wouldn't be surprised if the SEC takes its time given what happened. However, I'm not sure that timing will have the same meaning in this situation. It is more likely that we will wake up one day and hear that the Commission has given up and the launch is imminent,” Balchunas suggested.
According to Seyffart, quick approval of applications after the court's decision is unlikely.
The SEC has 45 days to request a rehearing. After this period, the court will make a final verdict.
Let us recall that the US Congress again proposed dismissing SEC head Gary Gensler after a court decision to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin trust into an ETF.
