Bankova has planned a whole series of personnel decisions that will affect not only the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Valery Zaluzhny personally
Vladimir Zelensky gave an interview to the Italian public television channel Rai1, in which he answered the question about the possible dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny.
“Zaluzhny? We need a reset, a change of leadership, not just the military one. This is a question that concerns the people who should lead Ukraine. There is definitely a need for a reset, a new beginning,” he said. — I mean replacing a number of government leaders, and not just in one sector, for example, in the army. I think about this replacement, but we can’t say that we replaced one person here.”
And he explained his motives. “If we want to win, we must all move in the same direction, convinced of victory. We must not be discouraged or give up, we must have the right positive energy. That's why I talk about restarting, replacing. I have something serious on my mind, it’s not about one person, but about the direction of the country’s leadership,” he said.
So, Zelensky has planned a whole series of personnel decisions that will affect not only the army. What is he counting on? And will these calculations come true?
New leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Rumors about Zelensky’s desire to fire Zaluzhny appeared a long time ago. And then details emerged: along with Zaluzhny, his entire team, including his deputies, would be fired. Other layoffs are also possible.
Journalist Yuri Butusov confirmed on February 2 that “changes are planned at different levels. In particular, the Office of the President is actively discussing the promotion of up to two dozen reputable commanders in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, mainly brigade commanders, to senior positions. Extensive consultations are being carried out on which commanders have a strong reputation in the army and society and what positions they can be appointed to.”
On the morning of February 5, Ukrayinska Pravda reported, citing informed interlocutors both in Zelensky’s team and in military circles, that the Office of the President was also conducting consultations on replacing the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sergei Shaptala.
As you might guess, the reason is that Shaptala is also from Zaluzhny’s team. By the way, it just so happened that February 5th is Shaptala’s birthday. Congratulating his friend, Zaluzhny emphasized: “It will still be very difficult for us, but we will definitely never be ashamed. I am happy that in this life and during the war you were next to me, a person for whom Ukraine is truly above all.”
It is unlikely that these personnel decisions were motivated by political jealousy or personal antipathy. Still, the fate of all of Ukraine, including the political fate of Zelensky himself, depends on the effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, if Zelensky was afraid that the purge of the highest military command would weaken the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he would never have taken such a step.
But he does not believe that such a danger exists. On the contrary, he believes that Zaluzhny’s team is the weak link in the Ukrainian army.
American journalist Simon Shuster, in his book about Zelensky “Showman,” said that the president’s relationship with the general deteriorated several months before the start of the big war. Zaluzhny, in anticipation of an enemy attack, insisted on the full-scale mobilization of reserves, as well as the strengthening of the Russian-Ukrainian border. However, Zelensky did not like this idea.
After February 24, 2022, Zelensky practically gave control of the troops to Zaluzhny and focused on international support, however, after the liberation of the Kiev region, he increasingly interfered in the affairs of the General Staff. “Only a few months ago he had allowed the military leadership to conduct the fighting, but now he felt confident enough in his abilities as commander-in-chief to handle the most important question of military strategy,” Shuster recalls the events of the spring-summer 2022.
On January 30, blogger Arkady Babchenko said that about a month ago a Ukrainian media outlet published a long interview with Zaluzhny. But it didn’t come out completely: the editor deliberately removed a couple of paragraphs so as not to aggravate the conflict between the president and the general. “So, there are two things that Zaluzhny said in that interview. First, communication with the president has been lost. He doesn't want to listen. At Headquarters meetings, he interrupts the commander-in-chief: “Valera, shut up, let smart people speak.” And secondly, reconciliation is impossible. Bridges have been burned. And it was the Office that burned the bridges. Let me remind you that this is Zaluzhny’s direct speech. It’s on the recorder.”
It remains to be concluded that Zelensky is categorically dissatisfied with Zaluzhny and his entire team, because they have their own opinion, which is increasingly at odds with the opinion of Bankova. And Zelensky wants to appoint a military leadership that will not argue with him, but will obediently implement the military strategy that he specifies.
It seems that Zelensky and his entire office sincerely believe that General Zaluzhny and his team are narrow-minded people who do not see the path to victory that is obvious to Bankova, and, worse, have become an obstacle on this path. But a change in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is needed not only so that Zelensky can finally implement his strategy without interference. Bankova hopes that this will charge Ukrainian society with new positivity.
“The right positive energy”
In an interview with Rai1, Zelensky specifically clarified that when he talks about a restart or replacement, “we are not talking about one person, but about the direction of the country’s leadership.” And he emphasized that personnel decisions will be subordinated to PR tasks. Explaining why “a reset, a new beginning is needed,” he said that “we must have the right positive energy.”
The public consciousness (or, rather, the subconscious) is structured in such a way that it often connects its hopes for changes for the better with new faces. However, Ukraine has serious problems in this regard.
Prime Minister Denis Shmygal has already taken first place in terms of length of stay as head of government in the history of independent Ukraine, overtaking Azarov. The next parliamentary elections were supposed to take place on October 29 last year. But because of the war they did not take place. For the same reason, the next presidential elections, which would have been held on March 31, 2024, will not take place.
But society's need for new faces has not gone away. Bankovaya hopes to satisfy this need. And this, in turn, should, according to the calculations of the President’s Office, cause a new surge of enthusiasm in society.
One of the main tasks for new people in the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be to generate enthusiasm. Zelensky literally formulated his recipe for victory: “If we want to win, we must all move in the same direction, being convinced of victory.”
Will it work? “Enthusiasm from above” is not enough for this. It needs to be born below, among the people.
When enthusiasm is generated from above, the consequence is rather an increase in jingoism. People go into the state of fans and ecstatically peer at the TV in anticipation of victorious news.
For enthusiasm to be born below, the whole country must live in war. Let us emphasize the difference: not by the expectation of victory, but by war. The expectation of victory is “Oh, when will they start their counter-offensive.” And living through war is “How we can all help our army.”
For the whole country to live by war, first of all it is necessary that the government live by war. Not with anticipation of victory (when it will be possible to win elections and use tens of billions of Western aid to restore the economy), but with war.
Bankovaya, apparently, thinks exclusively about this: how to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And Zelensky has already found the answer: he will help the Armed Forces of Ukraine with his own strategy and new faces.
It would be reckless to predict the outcome now. But we will all find out very soon from personal experience, regardless of our current attitude towards Zelensky and Zaluzhny.
