With the US increasingly distracted by the Middle East war, the EU needs to demonstrate a willingness to maintain a high pace of assistance to Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia.
The European Union is due to decide in December to revise its budget for 2021-2027, worth 1.1 trillion euros, of which 50 billion euros are planned to be provided to Ukraine. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his newly elected Slovak counterpart Robert Fico spoke out against the continuation of military and financial assistance, which requires unanimity.
If previously the EU only had a problem with the position of Budapest, which actively used the right of veto on the issue of Ukrainian assistance, now Bratislava has also joined this process. EU representatives admit that such a destructive position of the two countries is a big problem, which will not be so easy to solve.
At the same time, we need to act quickly, because the decision to update the EU budget must be made before the end of the year to ensure continued support for Ukraine.
Why Slovakia and Hungary threaten to disrupt EU unity on aid allocations and how to prevent this
Mistrust due to contacts with Russia
On October 17, Orban became the first EU leader to meet with Vladimir Putin after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president and PACE adopted a resolution recognizing him as a dictator and the aggressor country itself as a dictatorship.
This development of events does not really bother the Hungarian leader, who said that he is proud of his country’s contacts with Russia, and Hungary pursues a “clear and transparent policy” of interaction with the Kremlin.
“We would like to keep all lines of communication open with the Russians, otherwise there will be no chance of peace,” he said.
After Orbán’s latest actions and statements, representatives of the European Union are becoming less and less tolerant of this position and are no longer at a loss for words to characterize this behavior. Thus, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, after the recent statement by the Prime Minister of Hungary that the EU is an “unsuccessful modern parody” of the USSR, generally stated that no one keeps Hungary in the Union. European diplomats said the behavior of the country's leadership "raises the question of whether we can still trust it as an ally and partner."
Leaders of the Baltic countries expressed concern about the prospect of weakening EU support for Ukraine. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda called Orban’s communication with Putin a “sad fact.”
“Food” for the Kremlin’s “war machine”
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that the European Union is preparing a new 12th package of sanctions against Russia. At the same time, Hungary has already announced that it will not support this decision against the Russian Federation if the restrictions concern gas, oil or nuclear energy, as stated by the country’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó. He also added that he sees no point in continuing sanctions against Russia, because they supposedly cause more harm to those who impose them.
Because of this position, Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov could not resist and directly accused Hungary of helping to feed the Kremlin’s “war machine” and not seeking to find alternative energy sources. For his part, Denkov said that his government does not plan to abolish the tax on Russian gas that transits through Bulgaria. The tax, he said, is needed to deprive Gazprom of profits that go to finance the war against Ukraine.
Negotiations will take place, but whether they will bring results is a big question
At the summit of national leaders of the European Union, Viktor Orban spoke out against providing a tranche of aid to Ukraine in the amount of 50 billion euros and said that Budapest would not support the decision in the future unless it saw a “very well-founded proposal.”
Orban has been hinting that he has been trying for a long time to get billions in aid provided for Hungary in the EU budget, but blocked by the executive body of the European Commission.
For their part, Ukrainians can also make their proposal during the negotiations that are already planned.
According to Orban, Budapest is ready for negotiations with Kiev regarding 500 million euros from the EU, the transfer of which Hungary had previously blocked, and is waiting for the arrival of the Ukrainian delegation.
“We are waiting for the Ukrainian delegation to come to Budapest to negotiate on this matter. We are open and ready to conclude an agreement,” said the Hungarian Prime Minister.
As is known, Hungary is blocking the allocation of the EU tranche to Ukraine in the amount of 500 million euros from May 2023. The country's authorities stated that they might change their minds if Ukraine excluded the Hungarian OTP Bank from the list of international war sponsors. NAPC agreed to these conditions, but Hungary stated that this was “an insufficient step.”
Earlier, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky repeatedly invited Viktor Orban to come to Kyiv and sit down at the table and talk about all aspects, including those that concern Hungary. The last time was on February 9 during a meeting on the sidelines of the summit of European Union leaders in Brussels. Before this, Zelensky had several telephone conversations with the Prime Minister of Hungary both before and during the war. But, of course, during a full-fledged visit there are much more opportunities and chances to conduct substantive and productive negotiations. The Hungarian Prime Minister has not yet come to Ukraine.
In Putin's "pocket"
“Unfortunately, today Orban’s pro-Russian course is absolute,” says Ukrainian diplomat, Ambassador of Ukraine to Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2010-2017, Alexander Levchenko, “At one time, only Budapest did not expel Russian diplomats from the country, unlike other European states . Everyone knows that these are representatives of Russian intelligence who work under diplomatic cover in Hungary. From the very beginning, Orban has been voicing Russian narratives about the end of the war in Ukraine and in fact represents the interests of the Kremlin in the European Union and NATO. He personally gave instructions to block some EU sanctions. In my opinion, Russian special services and intelligence also worked actively and closely with him and his immediate circle. After all, he didn’t look like this before.”
According to Alexander Levchenko, this pro-Russian attitude began to grow after Moscow began investing heavily in the Hungarian economy. Thus, Russia has expressed a desire to build a nuclear power plant in Paks - the amount of investment is almost 10 billion dollars. This project was presented as a great benefit for the Hungarian people, and, in fact, Russia began to occupy a very serious position in Hungarian politics. In addition, the Kremlin has set relatively low oil and gas prices for Hungary compared to other countries.
Election threats come true
As a result of the early parliamentary elections that took place in Slovakia on September 30, the government of the country was headed by the leader of the Smer-SD party (Course - Slovak Social Democracy) Robert Fico, known for his anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian rhetoric. In his last campaign, he spoke out against Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO and said that Ukraine needed to recognize all occupied territories of the country as Russian in order to achieve peace.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has been one of Ukraine's main partners in military assistance, supplying heavy equipment, MiG fighters and air defense systems. Military aid from other countries passed through its territory.
During the election campaign, the new Prime Minister of Slovakia promised to completely block the supply of military aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, and so far he is sticking to this pro-Kremlin course.
Thus, Robert Fico, at a meeting of the parliamentary committee on European affairs before the EU summit in Brussels, said that he would oppose the provision of military assistance to Ukraine and would not support the introduction of sanctions against Russia, because it would be difficult for him to explain this assistance to his citizens.
“As head of government, I will support a policy of zero military assistance. Let them negotiate peace for 10 years rather than senselessly kill each other for 10 years,” he said. Fico also argues that sanctions against Moscow are bad for the economy of Slovakia and some other European countries.
Chairman of the Committee on National Security and Defense of the Latvian Parliament Laurynas Kasciunas said that this decision “poisons the unity of Western countries,” and a possible ban on the transit of weapons through Slovak territory threatens “serious consequences for Slovakia itself within the framework of NATO and the European Union.”
At the same time, not everyone in the new government of Slovakia fully shares the pro-Russian approach to the issue of military cooperation with Ukraine.
Thus, the speaker of the country’s parliament, whose party is in a coalition with Robert Fico, Peter Pellegrini, said that he is in favor of continuing to carry out orders for Ukraine made on a commercial basis: “If someone orders and pays for these systems, then this is support for the Slovak industry."
In the current conditions, this is a rather positive moment for Ukraine, because Germany, Denmark and Norway a year ago announced that they would purchase Slovak-made Zuzana-2 howitzers for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
We need to talk and show the benefits of cooperation with Ukraine
“There is no need to be surprised at the sentiments that now reign in Slovakia and Hungary,” continues Alexander Levchenko. “Unfortunately, the information space of these countries regarding the war in Ukraine is almost completely captured by Russian narratives. The Kremlin has been actively working with local media and various civil organizations for a long time. At present, Ukraine can do almost nothing to oppose such a policy, and this is in the second year of the war. We are losing to Russia in this regard.
Therefore, we need to immediately begin our active work in the global information space and especially in European countries. It is necessary to convene a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council regarding Ukraine’s conduct of the information war, because we cannot win at the front if we lose in the media space. We need to clearly convey our position to the citizens of individual states, who then go to the polls and whose position their politicians must take into account. It would be good to invite the same Fico and Orban not only to Kyiv, but also to Bucha and Gostomel, so that they can personally see the atrocities of the Russians. Everything needs to be done as soon as possible, because this greatly affects the results of the war against Russia,” stated Alexander Levchenko.
According to Alexander Levchenko, it is necessary to work more actively with local politicians in all directions, and also try to increase economic contacts with these countries. So that Slovakia and Hungary understand that Ukraine is also an important trading partner for them.
The second important problem today is overcoming the right of veto in decision-making by EU countries. This makes it possible for the pro-Russian governments of Fico and Orban to block the aid process to Ukraine for a long time. According to Alexander Levchenko, this development of events will continue in the future if the principle of unanimity when making decisions by the European Union remains.
“It is already clear that the task of current Hungary and Slovakia is to stall for time and slow down the release of assistance to Ukraine. Brussels already feels this, and therefore is working to change the voting procedure. If this does not happen in the near future, then the Kremlin will not have problems finding allies within the EU or NATO in order to block this or that decision that is interesting to them,” emphasizes Alexander Levchenko.
