Specialists from the Center for Combating Disinformation have recorded massive hoaxes: anonymous telegram channels and Russian propaganda are speculating on the topic of rolling blackouts and their fairness. In particular, they write about the “export of light to Romania”, “emergency aid to Poland” and “new earnings for the oligarchs”.
The Cabinet of Ministers promises to make the shutdown schedules fair. To achieve this, he approved a new procedure for distributing consumption limits. It is already being tested in the regions. At the same time, power engineers warn that rolling blackouts could become even more severe in July due to planned repairs at nuclear power plants, heat, and the likely consequences of Russian shelling.
Meanwhile, specialists from the Center for Combating Disinformation have recorded massive hoaxes: anonymous telegram channels and Russian propaganda are speculating on the topic of rolling blackouts and their fairness. In particular, they write about the “export of light to Romania”, “emergency aid to Poland” and “new earnings for the oligarchs”.
Record imports in May
At the beginning of the week, after repairs, the high-voltage line that connects Ukraine with the power grid of Slovakia returned to operation. The connection was repaired as planned, Ukrenergo reported. Now, through this line they will again be able to import electricity for the needs of the state. And such purchases doubled in May. According to the ExPro resource, Ukraine imported almost 450 thousand MWh in a month. About half of this volume was supplied from Hungary, the least from Moldova. But the export of electricity from Ukraine has completely stopped.
This is one of the high voltage power lines that connects us to Europe and allows us to import or export electricity and receive assistance.
“All available capacities of domestic power plants are now operating exclusively to cover domestic consumption—accordingly, electricity is not exported outside Ukraine,” noted the Ukrenergo press service.
Russia destroyed half of Ukraine's electricity generation capacity. Thermal and hydroelectric power stations suffered the greatest destruction. According to estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics, energy losses due to Russian attacks have already reached more than $56 billion. Let's say the state company Ukrhydroenergo is preparing a lawsuit against Russia due to the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. Will demand compensation of $2.5 billion.
“As a result of strikes by Russian missiles and drones, 9 gigawatts of power have already been destroyed. At the same time, the peak electricity consumption last winter was 18 gigawatts per day. That’s why half of them don’t exist now,” said President Vladimir Zelensky.
Under such conditions, Ukraine cannot sell electricity abroad at all. However, export remains one of the topics for a massive disinformation campaign, which is fueled, in particular, by anonymous telegram channels. And it has already gained such publicity that the state had to react.
“The last days of electricity exports were in early May. There is a lot of speculation on this topic. Some people do this deliberately, others simply don’t understand how this actually happens,” says Andrian Prokip, an energy expert at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.
Mythical export to Romania
Since the end of March, Russia has carried out at least six massive attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector. Missiles and drones were aimed at shunting generation, the main task of which is to cover consumption peaks. That is, increased demand for electricity in the evening and morning. In addition, right now the planned repair campaign of nuclear units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants is in full swing. As a result, the entire state is forced to live according to blackout schedules.
“The electricity shortage that we have in the summer will be significantly greater in the winter if it is not possible to restore generating capacities, protect them with air defense and increase electricity imports,” says former Energy Minister Olga Buslavets.
The state is trying to reduce the electricity shortage as much as possible. Ukraine does not carry out commercial exports to the countries of the European Union. And it’s very easy to check - all the data is published by the European Network of Electricity Transmission System Operators. Last fall, Ukraine became its full member, that is, our energy network is part of the European one. And it is impossible to hide such data, because it is freely available on a special website.
“Facts: exports fell to zero in May, while imports doubled. There are no exports at all in June. It is technically impossible to hide electricity. In addition, there are no industrial accumulation systems in Ukraine. We remember that our main enemy is the Kremlin ghouls and their minions, who set the goal not only to destroy the energy sector, but also the entire Ukrainian people,” stated Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.
At the same time, commercial electricity exports should not be confused with interstate technical flows. Because they have nothing to do with selling the resource. This is a natural phenomenon for the unified energy network of Europe, of which Ukraine is a part. Usually these flows are insignificant. At the same time, their daily balance is close to zero, because electricity flows not only to neighboring states, but also back to Ukraine.
“The interconnected networks of Europe are like communicating vessels. That is, electricity flows between countries. When we see a message that electricity allegedly went from Ukraine to another state, then we need to look at comprehensive information for the day: how it came to us from other countries. And if this balance is reduced, subtracting imports and emergency assistance, then it tends to zero,” explained Andrian Prokip.
The main topic of speculation on social networks and anonymous telegram channels remains data on physical flows from Ukraine to Romania. Ukrenergo explained that these figures are specifically presented as export indicators. The Center for Countering Disinformation noted that Russia is behind this campaign, and its scale will only grow.
The Kremlin benefits from infighting within Ukraine.
“Romania has large generation facilities in the east, on the Black Sea coast. The Carpathian range runs through the middle of the country, where there are not many power lines due to the difficulty of construction in mountainous areas. However, the main consumption in Romania occurs in the west and center. Accordingly, the flow of electrical energy comes from the energy system of Moldova and the western part of Ukraine, and returns to us through lines in the south,” explained Elena Lapenko, general manager for the organization of security advisory services at DiXi Group.
Aid to Poland is also not an export
In May, Ukraine provided emergency assistance to Poland's power grid. Ukrenergo explained an important nuance: it was not about selling electricity abroad, but, on the contrary, about importing. Several times Ukraine urgently accepted Polish electricity. Because due to cloudless weather, solar stations in Poland produced more kilowatts than the state consumed. Therefore, there was a surplus at certain times. Ukraine bought excess electricity, thus partially avoiding rolling blackouts.
“Agreements have been concluded between Ukrenergo and the Polish transmission operator. And here I believe that both sides have benefits. Ukraine has a shortage of electrical energy, while Poland has a lot of it at certain times. We are not talking about any export at all, this is a reverse process,” said Vladimir Omelchenko.
The electricity shortage in Ukraine is not around the clock. During certain daytime hours, due to the active operation of solar stations, an excess may occur. And it is in such conditions that the state could export electricity. Moreover, this would not affect the consumers themselves. And it certainly wouldn’t contribute to rolling blackouts. But the state does not take such a step, fearing speculation. Therefore, the operation of solar stations may be limited if there are prerequisites for a surplus.
“In the morning and evening hours there is a deficit of 2.7 GW. And during daytime hours with a surplus, exports are still impossible. Therefore, solar stations were limited for one simple reason - there was nothing to balance our energy system with. So, there are several problems: deficit, balancing, the system is not ready to supply electricity right now. And the Europeans want an even schedule,” says Stanislav Ignatiev, Chairman of the Council of the Ukrainian Association of Renewable Energy.
Winterization plan
By the beginning of the heating season, Ukraine plans to build 1 GW of shunting generation, this volume is equal to the operation of a nuclear unit. Such plans were voiced by Vladimir Zelensky. The state is relying on gas installations; it is thanks to them that it will be possible to balance the energy system, the president is confident.
“In reality this is impossible. Gas generation is not built within six months from the date of application. Finding turbines, determining the installation location, making a design, connecting them, training teams to operate them - under the best conditions, takes a year. In Ukraine, conditions are not the best: the turbines that were delivered last year have not yet been launched,” says former adviser to the Minister of Energy and diplomat Lana Zerkal.
The state is still looking for money to restore the energy sector. In particular, due to a lack of funds, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to increase the electricity tariff. Low-income consumers are promised a subsidy: in total, we are already talking about more than three million families. The average benefit is less than UAH 1,500. But as the cost of light increases significantly, these numbers may yet change. At the same time, the tariff itself, according to the government, will still remain unprofitable.
“The market price of electricity today fluctuates around 7-8 UAH. We set the tariff at 4.32 UAH, based on the cheapest cost of Energoatom and Ukrhydroenergo. Plus, the cost of delivery of two components is included,” explained Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal.
The state is thinking about how to make rolling blackouts fair for all consumers. The Cabinet of Ministers has adopted a new procedure for distributing consumption limits; it will be fully operational from June 24. Critical infrastructure facilities will receive priority in power supply. And only then the rest of the electricity will be distributed evenly across all areas.
At the same time, it is important that officials put in order the lists of critical infrastructure facilities in each region. Ukrenergo has repeatedly stated that such lists included enterprises that do not perform important functions for the state, say, hotels.
“After this decree, those regions that were in the worst condition, for example, Kyiv, will begin to receive a little more electricity. And where the situation was much better, it was less. There will be a certain balancing,” says Andrian Prokip.
In addition to restoring damaged capacity, it is important to protect operating generation. The state expects that it will be possible to strengthen air defense before the heating season. Germany and the United States have already announced that they are ready to transfer new Patriot systems and IRIS-T installations to Ukraine. The Netherlands is still only discussing this possibility.
German and Ukrainian military personnel stand next to a Patriot air defense system during the visit of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to a military training ground in Germany, June 11, 2024.
“All we can do is get used to the fact that this is a normal state of affairs. The winter period will be more difficult. But at the same time, I am confident that all critical infrastructure will be repaired. There will be heat, there will be water, the sewage system will work. But at the same time, July and August will be difficult due to air conditioning. Because cooling concerns not only people, but also businesses, for example, food production,” said Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research.
Energy experts warn that the current electricity shortage is still relatively mild. Stricter consumption restrictions should be expected in July. It is then that nuclear generation will reach its minimum production due to planned repairs, and electricity consumption will increase significantly on hot days.
