Will Ukraine receive help from the United States: what to expect from the vote in Congress on April 20

A bill on additional funding for Ukraine, prepared by Speaker Mike Johnson, was officially introduced for consideration and published on the website of the US House of Representatives.

Joe Biden has already supported this document and stated that he is ready to sign it. However, before this, it must be voted on first in Congress and then in the Senate. What are the features and significance of Johnson’s assistance plan for Ukraine, why did the US President support it, how quickly can the document be adopted and will it be accepted in principle?

Plan details

The event that American congressmen had been arguing about for so long has happened. Republicans, represented by Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, have finally officially presented their aid package to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and also voiced their national security priorities. As noted, this plan consists of four separate bills. Of course, we are primarily interested in what Johnson came up with regarding Ukraine.

The bill provides for the allocation of about $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. Of these, almost $28 billion will be allocated for all operations related to US military assistance to Ukraine.

Of this amount, $13.8 billion until September 30, 2025 is allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative program, under which the Pentagon signs contracts with American defense companies to provide us with new weapons and equipment.

Another slightly more than $13.4 billion could be used to replace and repair weapons transferred to Ukraine, as well as to finance the training of the Ukrainian military.

Additionally, under the Foreign Military Financing program, which provides grants for the purchase of weapons from manufacturers, Johnson's project includes $1.6 billion.

A separate and important provision of the bill stipulates that the Joe Biden administration must “as quickly as possible” transfer ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine. But again, the US president can postpone this decision if it "would be harmful to US national security interests."

As for economic assistance, the bill provides $7.85 billion in loans, as Donald Trump said, until September 30, 2025.

Among the conditions for spending these funds is a ban on pension payments.

At the same time, after November 2024, that is, after the presidential elections, the US President will be able to write off 50% of the debt on these loans, and from January 1, 2026 - 100% of the debt, provided that this decision, again, is supported by Congress.

Johnson's bill also contains a number of requirements for the Biden administration regarding reporting on allocated funds.

Within 30 days of passage of the bill, the US Presidential Administration must provide Congress with a report on all weapons and related funding that the United States has provided to Ukraine since February 24, 2022. And within 60 days - a report on how control over the registration of weapons was carried out.

In addition, within 45 days, the US Congress must receive from the Biden administration a “strategy to support Ukraine,” which should be multi-year and contain a list of “specific goals” that the administration seeks to achieve.

“In general, I assess this bill positively,” Mikhail Pashkov, co-head of security programs at the Razumkov Center, tells Apostrophe. “In principle, everything is taken into account in it: it provides for military and financial assistance to Ukraine, support for the American military-industrial complex, and also satisfies the demands of right-wing radicals.” Republicans on loan assistance and accountability for the Biden administration."

“I don’t see any disadvantages for us in this bill,” Mikhail Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, noted in a commentary to Apostrophe.

“If this document is adopted, it will open the possibility of signing an agreement on US security guarantees for Ukraine. And this is an important factor,” says Pashkov.

Why Biden doesn't mind

US President Joe Biden has already expressed his readiness to “immediately sign” if Congress approves, bills on additional funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, introduced by House Speaker Mike Johnson.

“Israel faces unprecedented attacks from Iran, and Ukraine faces constant bombing from Russia, which has increased dramatically over the past month. The House should pass this package this week, and the Senate should quickly follow,” Biden said.

Before this, in an article for The Wall Street Journal, the American president explained that if the US Congress allocates assistance to Ukraine, it will not be an “open check.”

“If Congress passes military aid to Ukraine and Israel, we will not write blank checks. We will ship military equipment from our own stocks, and then use the money authorized by Congress to replenish those stocks by purchasing them from American suppliers. This includes Patriot missiles made in Arizona, Javelin missiles made in Alabama, and artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas,” the US President said.

In Biden's words, "We're investing in America's industrial base, buying American goods."

“I believe that Biden has thus compromised with the Republicans,” Mikhail Pashkov, co-head of security programs at the Razumkov Center, tells Apostrophe. “The Republicans have brought the situation to the point of absurdity, turned it in their direction and are now acting as sort of saviors. But on the other hand, Biden had no choice but to support this bill. He constantly talked about the need to provide assistance to Ukraine.”

Mikhail Gonchar, President of the Strategy XXI Center for Global Studies, agrees with this: “Biden could not help but compromise. If he had not supported this bill, then the Republicans would have accused him of disrupting aid to Ukraine.”

According to Mikhail Gonchar, the current situation indicates that the White House, in fact, had no strategy for Ukraine.

We will wait for April 20

A vote on Johnson's bill in the US House of Representatives is expected on Saturday, April 20. However, there is still no complete guarantee that it will be accepted.

“The fact is that before the vote, the procedure provided for by law will take place to discuss the bill and make amendments to it. And anything can happen here,” says Mikhail Pashkov.

“The logic of American legislators is now unpredictable, and no one can say where the pitfalls may be,” Mikhail Gonchar supports Pashkov.

Indeed, at the time of writing, 46 amendments have been submitted to the bill. Trumpist and Putin supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene distinguished herself here. Her amendments seem to have been copied from the Kremlin manual:

“Any member of Congress who votes for this law is obliged to join the Ukrainian army.”

“No funds provided by this law may be used or expended until the Government of Ukraine has held free and fair elections.”

“No funds provided by this Act may be used or expended until the Secretary of State submits to Congress a report confirming that Christian churches in Ukraine can operate without government interference.”

“No funds provided by this Act may be used or expended until Ukraine closes all biological laboratories and provides all data on such research to the United States Government.”

“You shouldn’t pay attention to this Green. You know, every city, village, and parliament should have its own crazy people. So Green is one of them,” political strategist Vitaly Bala said in a commentary to Apostrophe.

In his opinion, the likelihood of the adoption of a bill on assistance to Ukraine is very high.

“The fact is that the Republicans conducted a survey in “their” states regarding assistance to Ukraine and the majority of their supporters were in favor. Therefore, Trump and Johnson stopped resisting, sharply changed their rhetoric and proposed their own version of the bill. And if it is accepted, and then Trump makes a statement, it will become clear that this fits into the logic of his election campaign,” explained Vitaly Bala.

Mikhail Pashkov also believes that there is a possibility of adopting the bill.

“I will express cautious optimism that the bill on assistance to Ukraine will still be voted on. But this cannot be completely guaranteed. Here again the question arises of how congressmen will vote. If it’s a package of four bills at once, then the probability is high. If for each separately, then there is no guarantee. Let’s be careful and wait until April 20,” the expert noted.

“The general trend that emerged when Republicans polled their supporters was support for Ukraine. But the American politician has become detached from society. They are demonstrating not just a policy of double standards, but cowardice, if you like. Therefore, the passage of Johnson’s bill through Congress cannot be 100% guaranteed. April 20 will clarify the situation,” summed up Mikhail Gonchar.