Does Orbán have a chance to “raise” his political status?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his anti-Ukrainian policies , may temporarily head the European Council.
This is possible due to the desire of the current President of the European Council, Charles Michel, to run for the European Parliament, as a result of which he may leave the presidency early. Charles Michel himself assures that there are tools to prevent even Orban’s temporary presidency of the European Council. What dictated the actions of Charles Michel and whether Orban will be able to lead the European Council.
For the first time in the history of the European Union, the President of the European Council leaves office early. What Charles Michel did (or will do in six months) cannot be called anything other than selfishness: he made his own political career a priority, “dumping” his EU colleagues. It was known that after the elections to the European Parliament scheduled for May this year, which will be held in all EU countries, Michel will not receive the post of President of the Council, because he has already served two terms, and the President is elected for 2.5 years with the right to one re-election.
Michel's term of office was scheduled to end on November 30, 2024. But Charles chose a win-win option for prolonging the political future - namely the European Parliament.
His popularity in French-speaking Wallonia guarantees a place on the list of his home party, the liberal Mouvement Réformateur, MR (Reform Movement). It is possible that Charles Michel may become first on the pan-European list of liberals with a subsequent aim at the post of President of the European Parliament or at least the leader of a political group.
The chances of occupying the office of the President of the European Union are quite real: this place is the subject of agreements between the three largest political forces of the EU - European Populists, Democratic Socialists and Liberals (the latter includes Michel). This combination has been unchanged for many years.
And already in parliament he will “execute and pardon” - it is the EP that approves the president of the European Commission. And knowing how “warmly” Michelle feels about the current head of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, one can assume that difficulties will await her in the EP if she decides to be re-elected for a second term. The same applies to the composition of the European Commission as a whole.
The win-win option for Michel is also that he can stay in the office of the EP deputy for as long as he wants. There are no age restrictions here - the oldest member of the EP was 87 years old, nor restrictions on the number of terms - a great (without exaggeration) friend of Ukraine, the German Michael Haller, has been a member of the EP since 1999.
Once (not if) Michel takes the oath of office as a new Member of the European Parliament, his mandate as President of the European Council will end.
The question of the new President of the European Council will be decided in June after the results of the pan-European elections are known.
Therefore, the political parties that receive the majority of votes will compete among themselves not for one seat, but for four, four highest positions within the next institutional cycle: three presidential ones - the Council (now Michel), the European Commission (now Ursula von der Leyen), European Parliament (now Robert Metsola) and the post of High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (now Josep Borrell).
And if all the above three EU officials, except Michel, continue to work in their positions until the end of their mandate - until November 30, then the newly elected Council President, if the European Council decides so, will begin his work in the summer of 2024.
In case of emergency - when Michel is no longer there and there is no new president yet, according to Article 15 of the EU Treaty, the President of the European Council can be replaced by the leader of the member state that will preside over the Council at that time. This period occurs in Hungary, where the Prime Minister is Viktor Orban, who openly opposes Ukraine. Such a development is unlikely. It is even less likely that Orbán will be elected president of the European Council.
For Ukraine, the importance of the function of the President of the European Council lies in the fact that it is he (or she) who sets the agenda for meetings of leaders. That is, which questions to include and which not.
Michel was and remains a lobbyist on the Ukrainian issue. Therefore, support for Ukraine has always been a priority at meetings of the European Council. But even if another person, less favorable to Kyiv, becomes president, Ukraine already has many friends in the EU who will raise all the necessary issues for discussion.
It is these friends in the EU who will not allow a person to be in this position who is indifferent to the interests of Ukraine. Because current times dictate precisely the Ukrainian agenda.
