The President of Ukraine and people from his circle have recently increasingly spoken out about their readiness to negotiate with the aggressor. At the same time, the topic of gas transit through Ukraine is becoming increasingly louder in the media space.
If it seems to you that these are two parallel processes, then you are mistaken. In non-Euclidean geometry, parallel lines intersect. In our case, these lines want to cross at a point called “gas corruption.”
Excursion into history
If anyone celebrated the 20th anniversary of the Yalta meeting of the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, it was perhaps the “Viennese prisoner” Dmitry Firtash. It was then, on July 26, 2004, that Leonid Kuchma and Vladimir Putin agreed on the issues of regulating the supply and transit of natural gas and announced to the business representatives present the establishment of the RosUkrEnergo (RUE) company, which would solve all the problems of bilateral relations in the gas sector. And already on July 29, a package of contracts was signed for a 25-year period - until 2028, and the corresponding coordination council of the specified company was created in the Swiss canton of Zug. (At one time, “Mirror of the Week” revealed all the schemes and documents of RUE.)
But not only the elegant Swiss scheme was created in Yalta. As the media reported then, the provision on Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU as the ultimate goal of Euro-Atlantic and European integration was excluded from the “Military Doctrine of Ukraine”.
What happened next, after Yalta, I suppose many still remember, was the Orange Revolution, which blocked the political drift of Ukraine towards Russia, preventing the establishment of a pro-Moscow regime in Kyiv. However, it did not prevent the gas scheme, which Russia took advantage of: through the RUE scheme, the country’s gas market was practically captured, gas prices for the state NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine were promoted, in 2006 and 2009 there were two “gas attacks” directed against Ukraine and the EU. Subsequently, Russia, using and fueling the political confrontation in Ukraine with “cheap gas”, despite the replacement of the RUE schematosis with a bilateral agreement with enslaving conditions for the Ukrainian company, caused political turbulence in our country. And this ultimately brought to power the pro-Moscow regime of regionals with the Firtash-Boiko puppet group at its core. Then there were the Kharkov agreements, non-bloc status, the loss of Naftogaz to the RUE company in the Stockholm arbitration, the refusal of the ruling group of regionalists led by Viktor Yanukovych from European integration and the logical consequence - the Revolution of Dignity, which demolished the pro-Moscow puppet regime of gasocracy, and Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
Everything new is well forgotten old
The corrupt gas scheme, initiated and implemented according to the KGB-FSB manuals, worked brilliantly 20 years ago, although it did not last the allotted period of a quarter of a century. One can, of course, note that this was at a time when the Ukrainian economy was powered by Russian gas by about three-quarters, but now the situation is completely different - only domestically produced gas is used, which 100% satisfies the country’s needs. There is no dependence that existed; it was overcome back in 2015, when on November 25 the last cubic meter of blue fuel from Gazprom was imported. There is only a small volume of gas transit from Gazprom under the 2019 agreement, which is coming to an end this year, and there will be no extension.
Gazprom now is not the same Gazprom that was bursting with gas profits with generous dividend payments and the Swiss practice of elegant corruption through bearer shares. The Russian “national treasure” is now unprofitable and is in an extremely problematic and deteriorating financial condition, even according to the crooked data of official statistics. Gazprom has practically lost the EU market, it is not getting along with China as it would like, Central Asia does not want large volumes of Russian gas, Turkish extortionists are becoming incredibly impudent, demanding ever larger discounts. But we should not forget that the general manager of Russian companies sits in the Kremlin and continues to act according to the FSB methodology. He doesn’t know any other way, as they say, only the grave will correct the hunchback.
It is clear that a remake of RUE in its pure form is impossible. But the fact of the matter is that with a creative approach, you can make a certain modification of the circuit, improve it and further disguise it. It is important to set the task correctly and turn Gazprom’s weakness into a trump card that can be used in the war against Ukraine and Europe, acting from within.
Trojan horses of the Kremlin in service
The sudden updating of the topic of gas transit by Russia is not accidental, not only in the context of the completion of the agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom. In Moscow, they began to work in advance on a two-pronged plan to save the “national treasure” and the gas defeat of Ukraine. With regard to Ukraine, the bet is on the fact that in one way or another there are people in power who are close in spirit to the regionalists headed by Yanukovych. A kind of “young regionals” to whom “nothing human is alien.” It is important to “pack” everything correctly. The correct “packaging” is European and peacekeeping. Everything is fine with the latter - information is coming from every source that Russia is ready for negotiations, but Ukraine is not ready. The “Europeanness” of the gas schematosis should be ensured by Russia’s long-term and repeated Trojan horses in the EU and NATO - Hungary and Slovakia. The source of origin of transit gas should also not be in doubt - it should be non-Russian.
Well, as we see, the puzzles are being put together. In June, “suddenly” information appeared in the media about Azerbaijan’s readiness to increase gas supplies to the EU. It is likely that the Azerbaijani cover for Russian gas was discussed during the meeting in the Kremlin between Putin and Aliyev on April 22, the occasion of which was the 50th anniversary of the Baikal-Amur Mainline. The magnificent celebration of this date took place precisely together with the Azerbaijani leader under the pretext that his late father Heydar Aliyev was the curator of the construction. Behind the scenes of the ceremonial event, it was no longer about BAM...
And after a couple of weeks, on May 7, a guest from the EU appears in Baku. Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev not only sign a declaration of strategic partnership, but also share gas plans. Aliyev talks about his intentions to increase gas supplies to Europe from the current 8 billion cubic meters to 12 billion this year, and in the future, they say, there are plans to reach 20 billion cubic meters in 2027. Fico responds by noting: “Russia and Ukraine, for obvious reasons, can no longer export gas to Europe. We are naturally interested in supplying large volumes of gas to Slovakia. We are talking about approximately 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This will make a significant contribution to the diversification of gas supplies to Europe.”
The funny thing is that one does not have free gas resources (the Shah Deniz field has reached a production plateau, and Shah Deniz 2 is largely written on with a pitchfork), and the other does not need so much gas, because Slovakia consumes about 4. 5 billion cubic meters. So it is clear what is being said, but not stated. In fact, there is excess gas, and it is quite easy to get it if you use the transit scheme through Russia and Ukraine. And it doesn’t matter that there is no direct pipeline from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, there will be a replacement scheme, and Russian gas, under the guise of Azerbaijani gas, will go to Europe.
Both from Budapest and from Bratislava voices were heard that these countries cannot do without Russian gas and oil. Viktor Orban also joined the campaign, although more in the oil segment, but, competing with Fico, he decided not to lag behind in “active measures.” Suddenly and not by chance, he appeared at the forum... of the Organization of Turkic States in Azerbaijani Shusha on July 6, and it is obvious that the purpose of his participation was not only a flattering speech
Meanwhile in Ukraine
Few people paid attention to Bankova’s official message after the telephone conversation between Zelensky and Aliyev on May 21: “We have promising projects in energy, trade and other areas. We instructed the teams to intensify efforts to implement them and coordinated future joint events.” The Azerbaijani side noted that it was Zelensky who called Aliyev, and not vice versa.
In mid-June, information about Azerbaijani gas for Europe in transit through Russia and Ukraine began to appear in the media, including Russian ones. And in this presentation: negotiations are being conducted by certain “EU officials” and there are countries that are interested in Azerbaijani gas in order to replace Russian gas with it, as well as to save the Ukrainian gas transportation system, since without transit gas it will not be able to operate.
At first, Kyiv did not comment on this. But already at the beginning of July, Zelensky himself confirmed that an agreement to replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani supplies is one of the proposals that are currently being discussed, and that officials are now working on this. “Alternative steps are now being considered regarding how we can use the pipeline with another gas supplier, another country. Negotiations are underway,” Zelensky said. “We do not want to continue the gas contract with the Russian Federation.” We don't want them to make money here."
Well, that sounds pretentious. But it is precisely the scheme with “Azerbaijani” gas that will not only keep Gazprom afloat, but will also provide additional revenue to the budget of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moreover, in a ratio of about 1:10-15 (depending on prices on the EU market), that is, for every dollar of payment to the Ukrainian operator for transit services from Gazprom’s European clients, the latter will receive 10-15 dollars in income. Of course, something will go to the Azerbaijani side as payment for the “roof.”
“Where is schematosis?” - a question arises. The basic idea is that there will be no transit through Russia; more precisely, it will be formalized on paper; in fact, there will be a replacement scheme. But paper transit through Gazprom gas pipelines will be paid to some provider company under the code name “Ros-Az-Ukrtransit-gaz”, registered somewhere in Switzerland or somewhere else. That is, this payment for non-existent services will become a kind of “common fund” for payments to those involved. That is why the Slovak prime minister drew a large figure for the gas he (un)needs, which Europe supposedly needs so much.
What's next?
The President of Ukraine is being pushed down the slippery path of gas corruption, which will become a reason for both further accusations and conclusions to which the Russian propaganda of our Western partners will push: what do you expect from these Ukrainians, they again want their usual “ gas paradise." That’s why we are ready for peaceful negotiations with the “aggressor,” and Zelensky no longer demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine as a prerequisite.
Please note that the thesis that without transit gas, several regions of the country may be left without blue fuel in the winter is being promoted in the Ukrainian information space. Moreover, among those who promote such a narrative are not only individuals who have traditionally been contractors of the Firtash-Boiko group and Gazprom, but also those who are now unwittingly playing the role of useful idiots, arguing that the continuation of gas transit will become insurance against Russian attacks on facilities gas transportation system.
It is worth remembering that in 2009, when Gazprom stopped gas supplies to both Ukraine and Europe, the GTS was deployed in reverse and provided the country with gas from its own production and from underground storage facilities for two weeks at the peak of winter cold. There were no incidents of gas shortages in any of the regions. The previous management of the Ukrainian GTS Operator conducted numerous simulations with the participation of American experts on how the GTS would operate without transit gas. The conclusions were positive: the system will retain its functionality. For some reason, this is now being hushed up at Naftogaz.
And finally. Russia carried out, including recently, back in April-May, attacks on underground gas storage facilities in the Lviv region. And this is in conditions when the transit agreement is still in force, and Gazprom receives money for the sale of Russian gas in Europe. That is, the Kremlin has shown that the commercial goals of receiving money are secondary for it, the primary goal is the defeat of Ukraine and Europe. After all, these are signals not only to Kyiv, but also to European companies that want to use and use Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities in order to scare them away from this.
As we know, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. There is still time to stop and prevent two parallel lines from intersecting. To do this, we need to follow a path leading to victory for Ukraine, and not to bizarre negotiations that smack of gas corruption and guarantee nothing. Negotiations in Qatar - and this is a separate topic - are another trap for the Ukrainian Defense Forces, with which Moscow wants to limit Ukrainian “deep strikes” on its territory, while retaining freedom of action to damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
