The labor market in Ukraine in 2024 is undergoing significant transformations caused by events at the front and large-scale migration processes. The war made adjustments to the usual rhythm of life and work, causing serious shocks to the national economy.
Labor market in Ukraine: survival and adaptation in war conditions
The Ukrainian labor market in 2024 is faced with difficult challenges associated with the mobilization and migration of the working population. On the one hand, there is an increase in the number of vacancies, which indicates the resumption of economic activity and business needs for personnel. On the other hand, there is a growing problem of labor shortage due to the outflow of personnel as a result of military operations and the search for better life opportunities abroad.
According to the State Employment Service, the ratio of vacancies to the number of unemployed in 2023 indicated an imbalance, but already in 2024 there is a positive trend in the growth of the number of vacancies. The presence of 83,286 vacancies against the background of 149,779 unemployed indicates a certain narrowing of the gap between supply and demand in the labor market compared to the previous year.
In conditions of constant adaptation and changes caused by martial law, the labor market in Ukraine in 2024 requires an increasing number of qualified workers and specialists. The demand in the market is especially high for the following professions:
Workers for maintenance and operation of equipment and machines make up 18% of the total number of vacancies.
- Employees in the trade and service sector make up 17% of vacancies.
- Representatives of the simplest professions make up 15%.
- Skilled workers with tools account for 14%.
- Professionals and specialists – each category makes up 11%.
- Employees and managers account for 6% of available vacancies.
According to the job platform, demand for higher management, insurance, real estate, transportation and auto businesses is also growing in the market.
The labor market is experiencing constant regional shifts against the backdrop of the war. The eastern regions, which suffered the greatest losses and destruction, are in dire need of personnel, trying to maintain production capacity and relocate business to more stable regions. At the same time, in the west of the country there is an increase in the number of vacancies and an influx of labor due to internal migrants and the opening of new production lines.
For example, the Transcarpathian region showed an increase of 164%, Ivano-Frankivsk region by 154%, Khmelnitsky region by 132%, Vinnytsia region by 131%, and Lviv region by 130%. This indicates the resumption and expansion of economic activity in these regions.
In contrast to the western regions of the state, opposite employment trends are observed in the central and eastern regions. The National Bank's research confirms negative trends, especially in such regions as Kirovograd, Poltava, and Dnepropetrovsk. The specifics of the regional labor market do not always allow workers to quickly adapt from one industry to another, which leads to a situation where vacancies remain unfilled, despite high demand and increased wages.
According to the NBU macroeconomic and monetary review, the number of vacancies has increased, but the number of resumes remains lower than in previous years. This points to limited labor supply, which remains a major constraint on economic growth.
Also, one of the biggest problems that Ukrainian employers face is the growing competition for specialists with foreign companies that open their representative offices and branches in Ukraine. This, on the one hand, opens up new opportunities for Ukrainian specialists, on the other, creates additional pressure on the domestic labor market.
How mobilization affected the labor market in Ukraine
According to Oleg Risny, director of the Lviv branch of the employment center, the new mobilization rules have significantly affected all sectors of the labor market in Ukraine, but are especially problematic where the majority of the workforce is traditionally male.
Due to the ongoing war and increased mobilization measures in the labor market, there is a noticeable shift in the dynamics of the labor market: the number of vacancies has increased and there is a shortage of available workers.
Many employers are in a state of panic to fill vacancies, and there has also been a noticeable increase in the number of workers who prefer not to be officially employed in order to avoid mobilization responsibilities.
Oleg Risny believes that the level of undeclared employment remains high, and many enterprises continue to pay workers “in envelopes” in order to avoid official employment, which has become more picky under the new rules.
Various sectors are struggling to fill vacancies, with transport and utilities such as water utilities particularly hard hit due to their heavy reliance on male labor.
Efforts are being made to recruit women and older workers into traditionally male-dominated positions such as truck drivers to help ease labor shortages.
The IT sector, once considered stable, is now facing uncertainty due to falling wages and an increase in the number of professionals concerned about job security, according to an expert.
Despite some wage increases, especially in high-paying positions, overall employment conditions remain challenging due to the competitive and closed nature of the labor market.
Oleg Risny believes that trust in the implementation of new laws and the fairness of mobilization is crucial for the legalization of hidden employment. Changes in legislation have simplified the registration and mobilization process, which should improve the efficiency of the system by distinguishing between those who are actively working and contributing to the economy, and those who are not working but may be required to perform specific military roles.
In summary, Oleg Risny argues that, despite the challenges, the labor market in Lviv and throughout Ukraine remains dynamic, with constant demand in most sectors, primarily due to vacancies created due to the shortage of workers. But the future success of Ukraine's post-war economy depends not only on the return of its diaspora, but also on the stability and functionality of its political, economic, judicial and law enforcement systems.
How to solve the problem of employment in war conditions: the government’s position
In conditions where Ukraine is faced with a significant shortage of qualified personnel in the labor market, there is an urgent need to introduce effective measures to overcome it. Mobilization and migration have had a significant impact on the situation, but at the same time there are ways to optimize it.
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Daniil Getmantsev notes the importance of improving the reservation system and stimulating business development. According to him, the key element is a focus on “white” wages, which will protect workers while helping to increase tax revenues.
On the other hand, stimulating business development through access to low-interest loans and grants to create new jobs can be a powerful tool for boosting economic activity. This will not only help businesses expand their operations, but will help create new job openings.
An important aspect is the reform of the educational system. Getmantsev believes that it is necessary to reconsider the process of forming orders for training so that they meet the real needs of the labor market. The Ministry of Economics, collaborating with teachers, should focus on forecasts for the development of industries in order to provide the country with the necessary personnel.
The importance of retraining and training programs for the unemployed, opening the way to employment in new areas, is also noted. This will reduce the gap between supply and demand in the labor market, and will also facilitate the return of forced migrants.
Overcoming the personnel shortage in Ukraine requires an integrated approach, including improving legislation, stimulating economic growth, reforming the educational system and active support for business. Only united efforts of the state, business and civil society can ensure sustainable development of the labor market and increase the well-being of the population.
Despite the challenges, the labor market in Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and adaptation, opening up new opportunities for employment and the development of professional skills of the population in response to changed conditions.
