Our partners are increasingly thinking about what should be done to change the situation at the front in favor of Ukraine.
As noted by Vikter Kevlyuk, an expert at the Center for Defense Strategies, in this sense the commentary of the military analyst of the American analytical center RAND Corporation Michael Bohnert is interesting.
In his opinion, if Ukraine had from 14 to 21 well-equipped brigades, it could liberate all of its occupied territories. However, assembling 21 brigades, with about 4,000 men each, and training and equipping them to NATO standards will not be easy.
“For comparison, 21 brigades is about 50-60% of the size of the US Army in regular service,” Bohnert said, “Or, essentially, you would have to take the equivalent of the British, German or French armies, train them and give them 100% of what they need kit".
Michael Bohnert estimates that Ukraine's Western allies, such as the United States and EU members, would have to spend between $54 billion and $72 billion a year to produce enough missiles and artillery shells for Ukraine to go on the offensive again.
The question is whether Ukraine will find manpower and whether its allies are willing to spend money on proper weapons, said American defense expert Michael Peck. However, “the surprising thing is that, despite Russia’s superiority in numbers and weapons, Ukraine still has a real chance of winning the war,” he believes.
According to Michael Bohnert, NATO must fulfill what it promised to Ukraine and make sure that its forces “will be provided at least at some minimum level.”
Russia is now sending 25,000 to 30,000 new troops to the front per month. This means that Ukraine must inflict more than 30,000 casualties on the enemy per month—or about 1,000 casualties per day—to bleed the enemy dry.
The RAND analyst also cited a plan from the Estonian Ministry of Defense that lays out a roadmap for Ukraine's victory over Russia.
According to Estonian estimates, by the end of the year Ukraine needs 4,800 anti-aircraft guided missiles. The US production capacity is 3,600 missiles per year, the rest must be produced by other members of the Alliance. The pace and scope of enemy air strikes against targets in the rear areas of Ukraine will require the deployment of additional air defense forces and means. To repel these attacks, up to 7500 anti-aircraft missiles are needed. Western industry will only partially cover this need, but it cannot be done without using part of the reserves of NATO armies.
Estonian analysts assessed the scope of the Defense Forces' fire missions and concluded that this would require 2.4 million rounds per year, which NATO could provide with additional support from the United States and external sources.
The annual demand for long-range missiles is estimated at 8,760 pieces. The only producer of such ammunition is the US with a capacity of 14,000 per year, which may increase next year. It is possible to replace part of this need with air-to-surface missiles, but there is a demand for their carriers – aircraft.
Some targets are located deep within the territory of the Russian Federation; they are reachable by cruise missiles of the appropriate range. Ukraine has received part of this potential, but there is still a ban on strikes with provided missiles against targets on the national territory of the Russian Federation. The volume of deliveries could amount to several thousand missiles.
Bennett estimated the cost of everything mentioned at 20-35 billion dollars. It should be borne in mind that this volume of ammunition is needed for a successful defensive operation. The Defense Force's strategic offensive operation will require ammunition worth between $54 billion and $72 billion. The cost of carrier platforms and personnel training are not included in this amount and may cost an additional 50-100%.
NATO can support Ukraine for a long time under appropriate conditions: a way out of the situation at the front (we are talking about the same positional impasse) Europe is able to provide what is necessary without the participation of the United States, but must use all global sources.
It is possible to restore Ukraine's sovereignty within its borders within the next two years, but the path to victory will cost much more than the above figures and will require significant investment from NATO countries and strong US support.
