Difficulties with Poland. How protesters' demands make it impossible to resolve the conflict

The protests on the border of Poland and Ukraine have been going on for almost a month, and their protesters are putting forward the following demands:

1. Cancellation of the “transport visa-free regime”, that is, the return of the system of issuing work permits in the European Union for Ukrainian carriers, which was canceled a couple of months after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion.
2. A ban on Ukrainian companies carrying out transportation within the EU, that is, limiting their capabilities to a certain number of flights from Ukraine to the European Union and back.
3. Strengthening the rules of transportation under the certificate of the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT), that is, the requirement that the vehicle meets environmental standards. This should make it more difficult for Ukrainian carriers to issue certificates for technical inspection of their vehicles.
4. The introduction of a separate queue for trucks with EU registration at border checkpoints on the Ukrainian side (read - Polish trucks, which are mainly engaged in cargo transportation between Ukraine and European countries).
5. Access for drivers of Polish companies to the Shlyakh system, which will enable Ukrainians of military age (primarily those who continue to work in Poland for local carriers after February 2022) to freely cross the Ukrainian-Polish border.
6. Creation at each checkpoint (again, on the Ukrainian side) of a separate queue for empty trucks - Poles, unlike Ukrainian carriers, often bring goods to Ukraine and return back without cargo.

As for the last requirement, Ukrainian carriers even proposed options for its implementation, but they still remain unimplemented due to the fundamental impossibility of other points, especially the first ones, which are called political. Some experts have speculated that the organizers of the protests were putting them out solely for bidding in order to gain an early advantage in the shipping market between Ukraine and the EU, which is expected to boom after the end of Russia's war against Ukraine. However, this did not stop other experts from putting forward a version of the military-political subtext of the protests, namely, suspecting their real organizers of working for the Kremlin.

And here the point is not only that for the Kremlin people a special sadistic pleasure is the use of democratic procedures to fight the governments of democratic countries. The main frontman of the protesting carriers is Rafal Meckler, not only a major local player in the transport market, but also the leader of the Lublin branch of the anti-Ukrainian Confederation party, also known for its Putinophile views. Suspicions regarding his instigation by the Kremlin arose from the first days of the protests, when their participants promised to freely allow humanitarian and military cargo into Ukraine, and the question arose: how could they make sure that the truck was transporting something specifically for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and with whom would they then this information (which may turn into intelligence) will be shared.

Well, the recent blocking of fuel tanks at the border by protesters, which has already affected prices at Ukrainian gas stations and caused nervousness among the owners of generators purchased last winter, has led to the fact that even Polish experts (in particular Dariusz Materniak on Radio Liberty ) began compare the actions of overly active citizens with the protests of the German “proletariat”, which tried to block the supply of weapons to Poland during Tukhachevsky’s campaign against Warsaw in 1920.

These suspicions are strengthened by the fact that the organizers and participants of the protests, which, by the way, are not supported by the majority of Polish carriers, are primarily those who were involved in transportation between Poland and its eastern neighbors - Russia and Belarus. Thus, they can be “covered up” in various corruption schemes, without which, as we know, business cannot be done in the aggressor country. However, this version should be left to the intelligence services and hope that under the new Polish government (or if circumstances arise that prompt the political will of the current one), they will be able to deal (if the Kremlin trace is confirmed) with both the organizers of the actions and the strange behavior of some Polish law enforcement officers, who often turn out to be exclusively on the side of the protest participants, although many lawyers are increasingly (especially after the deaths of Ukrainian drivers blocked at the border) calling it illegal. This process can take place quietly, without loud revelations, simply in the form of convincing “activists” that the continuation of their activity can lead to such revelations (or even legal charges), and curtailing protests, for example, due to “weather conditions.”

It will be more difficult to resolve the situation if the organizers can prove that their actions are devoid of political overtones, and they were guided solely by the interests of Polish entrepreneurs (the fact that they are primarily their own is another question). After all, the desire to maintain the dominant (sometimes they say almost monopolistic) position of the Poles in the European transportation market, which they seriously tried to displace the previous major players in it - the Germans and the French, is quite justified from the point of view of many local voters. Well, the protests of the Brussels “Eurocrats”, who claim that the protesters’ demands do not correspond to the integration agreements between Ukraine and the EU (and therefore Poland as part of it), can only contribute to the sympathy of conservative Poles for those blocking the border. What can we say about the accusations of Ukrainian carriers in an attempt by Raphael Meckler and those behind him to “raid” the transport corridor between Ukraine and the EU in order to compensate for what was lost due to the closure of the borders with the Russian Federation and Belarus?

In such circumstances, the hopes of official Kyiv that the new Polish government will be able to quickly control the situation (like Vladimir Zelensky’s statement that neighbors need to be given time) may not be entirely justified, because it is not even known when it will be formed. After all, for now the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) is trying to delay the transfer of power as much as possible. And besides, it may try to use the carriers’ protests to accomplish several of its tasks.

The first may be to resolve (in its favor) several of the many contradictions that have accumulated in relations between Warsaw and Brussels during PiS’s long stay in power. Then use this “victory over the Eurocrats” during the local and European Parliament elections scheduled for next year (and if there is enough “fuse”, then during the 2025 presidential elections). The second (no less, and perhaps more important) is to force potential Prime Minister Donald Tusk to begin his term with the need to solve a rather complex problem, namely, to sit not on the splits, but on a tripartite separation between local business, aid to Ukraine and EU laws. This could also help PiS win back in the 2024-2025 electoral cycles. defeat in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Well, the third goal: further prolongation of the protests could lead to increased talk about the “Confederation’s” cooperation with the Russian special services (or even to its complete “stirring up” in relations with the Kremlin), and consequently to the “denialization” of part of the radical-conservative Polish electorate and returning him to the more moderately conservative (that is, PiSovsky) camp.

In this context, the efforts of official Kyiv to “wait out” the problem until the arrival of the new Polish government under the leadership of Tusk may turn out to be unjustified (or justified to a lesser extent than expected). Indeed, in addition to the above-mentioned circumstances, according to the former Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland Andrey Deshchytsia, representatives of the Peasant Party should also join him, who will protect the interests of local farmers and transporters.

Thus, it seems most appropriate to consider the current situation as a “rehearsal” for the numerous rounds of negotiations that Ukraine will have to conduct with other EU members as it integrates into it. And, paradoxically, it would be good to use the Polish experience of obtaining significant preferences for the most vulnerable sectors of the national economy.

Well, Ukrainian society should remember the help it received from Polish society over the past two full-scale war years. And do not give in to regular attempts at anti-Polish provocations.