As they say, the situation with the suspension of production at the largest gas field in Ukraine at the moment seems hopeless and without prospects for rapid improvement. Political will appears to be lacking, which only exacerbates the problem.
At the beginning of autumn, the president’s office promised to work out changes to the legislation so that when sanctions are imposed on the owner, the work of the enterprise would not stop.
We quote Rostislav Shurma: “... today there is a legislative norm that provides for the deprivation of licenses in the event of sanction by the owners of companies... We will look at how to revise this norm. This is the competence of the Verkhovna Rada, but we know this problem and will definitely introduce... discuss and, perhaps, make appropriate legislative ( changes - I.M. ).”
The problem of stopping the work of such enterprises had already been around for more than six months at that time, and it was well highlighted. The same Smart-Holding of Novinsky published a monthly summary of how much the state is missing in taxes due to the shutdown of its Kharkov gas fields (about a billion hryvnia and more than a hundred million cubic meters).
Although, due to their inherent modesty, they forgot to add that at the Poltava field, where officials failed to stop production (listing on the London Stock Exchange helped them fight back), gas production also fell by half compared to the pre-war level. This is also an interesting question, and it would be nice to figure it out, but what exactly?
Another three months passed, but nothing legislative was brought to the Rada, but the state lost production from a much larger asset. By a court decision, it was stopped at the Kharkov Sakhalin field of Ukrnaftobureniya (UNB).
If in the “Smart” history the country loses 12 million cubic meters monthly (during the war, let us remember), then in the stopped NSA it is four times more.
If you look at the reaction of various “others”, or rather, the complete lack of it, the question inevitably arises: guys, who is the customer?
The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation, which are achieving exactly the same thing, are being dismissed for now. Their influence on production is so far much more modest than a couple of “praises” of the capital’s ships, even after delivering 120 missile strikes on oil and gas infrastructure.
It turns out that the “cosmonauts” are a direct and specific enemy, and it’s possible to fight their attacks quite well, while the saboteurs sitting in Pechersk and around are much more insidious.
I don’t plan to call them names or even just call them. The only thing that really surprised me was the lightning-quick reaction of the Supreme Court, which confirmed that stopping production is very correct, and that it is impossible to look for any options . A decision that strictly confirms the complete lack of bias and impartiality of Themis. When it is not there (and this has happened), the answers are more vague and the timing of their adoption is completely different. So what kind of mining and war are there, what are you talking about?
The State Geonadra had cheerfully responded a little earlier (though on a different occasion) that it didn’t give a damn about the efficiency of the sanctioned fields. This is not her task.
Now we are waiting for ARMA. Previously, they said that until the decision of the “tower” they would not terminate anything, and in general, what was happening was not good and state revenues were being lost. Well, the “tower” has already jumped off the topic. We wait.
I remember that another working group was also created to find solutions to the issue . Today there is not the slightest reason to doubt either her highest professionalism or complete impotence. For almost a month I haven't heard from her. This is normal - as the “right guys” tell her, that’s how she will arrange it.
It’s funny, but it is precisely for this reason that the already voiced version that Nikolai Zlochevsky, one of the founders of the National Security Agency, is behind what is happening seems unlikely. Even despite the current activity of the disrespected investor, the caliber and current opportunities are slightly different. That is, technically he will cope, his Burisma is not a bad company. But to order...
However, the names will still emerge. For now, the trend is important. The redistribution of assets from the wrong people to the right ones has begun. There is even a name - “young oligarchs”. They were late for the initial redistribution of property, now they are getting it. There’s nothing new under the moon, it’s just that rockets haven’t flown around before.
In the case of the UNB, this means that the deposit will stand for a while and then go to someone cheap through a “competition.” It cannot leave at a high price, since the war is guaranteed to scare away foreign participants. Moreover, at a time when the West is drawing maps where Sakhalina is a future battle zone. And the shelling there continues right now.
If there is someone who doesn’t understand, they will gently explain to him that he shouldn’t go there now - it’s better to buy it “from us” later (with a markup, of course).
The British PPC, which was a minority shareholder (10%) in Sakhalinka, is now hastily clearing its assets of traces of Kolomoisky’s presence and praying to God that it has a London residence permit.
So, our patriotic people will probably acquire the asset (or maybe just take it under management) , who will launch production for many months (we hope not years) of the idle field, and that’s all... Happy ending.
Moreover, people work smart and, as the careful handling of assets that have a real (and not offshore) shareholder component shows, are not lawless. Why quarrel? They can also teach children in London together. And it’s more reliable to sue for assets there than in Pechersk.
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In general, we are moving along a well-established track.
But if the balance of power is calculated incorrectly, everything will get bogged down in long-term legal disputes (Sakhalinka is no stranger to this), during which the parties will wash all each other’s dirty laundry... Although at this stage no one will announce the name of the customer.
In this case, production will naturally stand still, and gas will be bought abroad, losing both in overpayments and in lost taxes. Don't get used to it.
Just think, the loss is 700 million cubic meters of our gas annually. Mere trifles for the country. Whether it’s a matter for a specific person (even a group of friends) to have a share in a company with an annual turnover of hundreds of millions.
By the way, in addition to gas, the fields also produce gas condensate - about 5 thousand tons per month at UNB . Previously, it was used for processing, slightly reducing the need for imported petroleum products. And it can be poured into tanks almost immediately . Well, why cry over your hair, we’ll buy it somewhere too. There's plenty of money.
And yet there is a small flaw in this idyllic scheme. Unfortunately, there is no formal article in Ukrainian legislation - “we are preparing an asset for sale to good people.” That is, in fact, there is a mechanism, but it has not yet been introduced into legislation. You'll have to spin around.
Meanwhile, the ball is running out. The West is allocating funds for support more and more sparingly, cynically (and less and less restrained) pointing out that it did not sign up to supply all the schemes. You will still have to take some at least cosmetic actions. Even if it hits the pockets of people, we repeat, worthy, patriotic, modern-minded and all that. Without being too pathetic, in the spring we considered different options for asset management. The year is ending - the result is not just zilch, but the loss of another deposit . At least out of decency, we need to pretend that the problem here is of interest to someone...
