Despite the brightly lit Pechersk, it is difficult to imagine that the country is on the verge of a power outage. However, a shortage of produced energy cannot be avoided, and in the first two weeks of December alone, NPC Ukrenergo has already turned to its neighbors from the European Union seven times with a request for an urgent supply of electricity.
In numbers, the volumes of assistance are not very large , one to one and a half percent of consumption (equivalent to the power of a couple of 200-300 MW units), but they are critical for balancing the energy system . "Emergency" is not a cheap pleasure, twice as expensive as commercial imports, but the alternative is even worse - to start disconnecting consumers.
But winter is just beginning, and December is now clearly colder than last year. According to the approved forecast balance, a deficit is possible at the end of the year and the first quarter of the next, and imported supplies of electricity are required to cover it .
It was announced that it would probably be necessary to buy at least a million kilowatts of power from outside .
Technically, there are conditions for this: the European Union recently expanded our purchasing capabilities to 1.4 million kW . Will they be implemented? How can I tell you...
For a couple of months now, the idea of introducing a new mechanism for importing electricity - the so-called import PSO (or imposing special obligations) - has been actively promoted.
The packaging looks like this: the operator (that is, Ukrenergo) makes an assessment of the situation in the Ukrainian energy system. Then it provides importing companies (private or public) with “information regarding forecasted annual obligations for the import of electrical energy across the European Union”. They buy it in the specified volumes and terms, bring it into the country, providing the service of restoring the balance in the energy system . Then this energy is sold “in all segments of the Ukrainian electrical energy market at commercial prices prevailing in these markets.” Ukrenergo pays for the service . Import is about half the price of an emergency vehicle. The electricity shortage is closing. The musicians play tunes, everyone stands up and applauds. And most importantly, if something goes wrong, the culprit is known in advance. And these are not wise officials of all kinds, but stupid “Ukrenergo” and/or greedy and stupid importers who were unable to implement their wise idea.
Unfortunately, there are some minor nuances in the scheme.
Let's start with a naive question: why , in fact, now few people import electricity on their own ? During the entire third quarter of this year, about a percent of the electricity produced in Ukraine was purchased abroad. Even at its peak, in August, when air conditioners were actively working, imported energy was only 1.8% . Then volumes fell, and even with the onset of cold weather, the scale of purchases is not impressive, and the network’s capabilities are not even half used.
The answer is banal: it is expensive, and accordingly, there are few people willing to buy imported electricity.
At our neighbors, at the times we need it, it is more expensive than ours at wholesale prices, and when it becomes cheaper, it is no longer really needed here. So traders rush around the market, looking for clients who fit into these specific conditions.
Last year, when the orcs hit the power grid en masse, the government decided that enterprises that receive a significant (50%) share of imported electricity will not be cut off. It's not much, but it's an incentive.
The same mechanism is being offered this winter. But while there are no blackouts, customers buy “unswitchable” energy, but they don’t rush for expensive energy . Hence the tiny volumes.
With the advent of blackouts, the situation will naturally change, but that will happen someday.
So trading is not great yet.
With Ukrenergo the situation is even more fun. He actually has the responsibilities of a super-organizer of procurement, and that’s not so bad. The main thing is that he becomes “last in payment .
This is despite the fact that the company is already covered in debt from head to toe. Whom did she owe? Short-term debt alone is about 31 billion UAH. And few people care that she will owe even more - the liquidity of such debts is completely different, and it is naive to expect that they will decrease over the winter.
Just the other day, Ukrenergo again cut its request to increase costs. That is, no, transmission and dispatch tariffs were increased, but less than was justified. And there will be a lot of expenses in winter, and new payments may well not cover them. The prospects of finding money by increasing tariffs for the population (this is not for Ukrenergo), and even before the end of winter, are generally unrealistic.
As a result, no one has even dared to voice the expected effect of the new PSO . And it is already clear that there is simply no set of good solutions.
Import, of course, is needed, and its main attraction will be “non-disconnectability”. Despite all the groans and cries, when the question of downtime at work arises, there will be those willing to do so. This, apparently, is the calculation. But the question of balance , whatever one may say, remains open if you have poorly organized imports and problems with your own generation .
The mass departure from the network of DTEK units that began in November was surprising, but Centerenergo was not so much, everything was consistently bad there. It is clear that the consequences of the shelling are affecting us, but they will still occur. So are the frosts. After all, in fact, there hasn’t been a big minus yet, but the system is already chattering.
So it wouldn’t be a bad idea to at least analyze the repair campaign of 2023, because the next one will be even more difficult (the results of this winter that has just begun will also be added).
How can we figure out what we have with coal and why there is already less than 900 thousand tons of it , although a reserve of 1.8 million was determined for the winter ?
And also at least a little to tighten the fountain of promises gushing from the screens, how everything will be fine with us. In winter there will be blackouts. This is unpleasant, but someone needs to voice it. And for some, seriously prepare.
The country is at war, and over the past year, about half of key power equipment has been knocked out and damaged. Force majeure due to physical damage to the system is our reality, as evidenced not only by power steering.
For example, Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant, after the seventh artillery strike in the last seven weeks, will find it difficult to agree with the thesis that the energy system has not yet been hit. Its functioning is maintained through the great efforts of tens of thousands of people (many at the risk of their lives). Enormous problems have accumulated there, and it will not be possible to solve them all. Some of them will definitely get worse by spring, but to what extent depends on us.
Ukrenergo recently began to illustrate the situation in the energy system with the image of a cat with a striped tail, showing how sad his life is so far.
One of the experts asked: “What will happen to the cat at minus 10–15 degrees?”
They answered him: “If you want to become a bunny, otherwise the dog GAV will come ( the emergency schedule is turned off - I.M. ) and bite my ear.”
Even with a bitten ear, the cat will survive until spring and the system will live. But I would really like the cat’s tail to be pulled less. And there are so many people willing...
