Ukrainians are changing priorities. Why corruption has outpaced war by half

The question of corruption begins to play the role of an answer to the question of war. Could there be more good news from the front? It could, if the billions that went into corruption schemes turned into drones, ammunition, military equipment

The two main topics in Ukrainian media are war and corruption. A year and a half ago there was only one main topic: the war with Russia. But gradually corruption not only caught up with the war, but also overtook it.

And here is the result. A recent opinion poll recorded that 58% of Ukrainians named the fight against corruption as the number one priority among all reforms and tasks for Ukraine. And only 29%, half as many, chose the option “tasks related to war.”

Selection in two rounds

This study was carried out by KIIS on behalf of the EU Advisory Mission to Ukraine. This is important for two reasons. Firstly, this removes suspicions that sociologists could work in the interests of one or another political force. Secondly, this gives reason to assume that the results of the study will be used by the European Union when putting forward demands to Kyiv: “Look, it wasn’t us who came up with the idea that you have corruption, it’s your citizens who insist.”

However, this study is of interest not only to European bureaucrats. In a sense, it simulates two rounds of presidential elections, at least as far as the struggle of ideologies is concerned.

Respondents were offered a list of nine reforms and tasks for Ukraine. People were asked to select their top 3 priorities as well as their number one priority.

When choosing the top 3 priorities, you could vote for three positions from the list. Two positions received the support of the overwhelming majority of respondents: the fight against corruption - 90%, “tasks related to war” - 77%. Three more positions received more than 20%: reform of the judicial system - 43%, ensuring human rights - 26%, reform of law enforcement agencies (police, SBU, etc.) - 21%. The remaining four positions scored less than 10% each (from 8 to 4%), and 3% declined to answer.

When choosing priority number one, you could, of course, only vote for one position. And here it turned out to be a tough fight between the two leaders of the first round: the fight against corruption - 58%, “tasks related to war” - 29%, the remaining seven reforms and tasks - a total of 10%, 3% declined to answer.

“And”, not “or”

How did it happen that corruption outpaced the war by half? We all remember that in the first months after February 24, 2022, the topic of corruption was not raised at all; all the thoughts of Ukrainians were occupied with the Russian invasion.

The clue can be found in other figures from the same survey. Respondents were asked, looking at the same list of reforms and tasks for Ukraine, to answer: “Which of these reforms do you know anything about?” You could select all the options that apply. And the leaders turned out to be the same: the fight against corruption - 64%, “tasks related to war” - 48%, the rest - less than 40% each (from 39 to 20%).

This can be considered a reflection of how these topics are presented in the Ukrainian information space, including all the main sources of information (and for people these are Telegram channels - 44%, TV news - 43%, YouTube - 36%, online news publications - 34% ). The media and bloggers talk more and more willingly about corruption than about the situation at the front. And this affects the prioritization of people's brains.

However, feedback is also important here. The media, of course, lead people, but at the same time they follow people. If people only wanted to hear about the war with Russia, and did not want to hear about corruption, then those media that talk about corruption would simply lose their audience. That is, it’s still not just about the media, but also about people.

And people changed a lot during the 20 months of the great war. For many residents of the western and central regions, including the capital, the war faded into the background as soon as Russian troops were expelled from Kiev. Air raid alarms have become less frightening (in particular, thanks to the strengthening of air defense of the capital and other cities). In addition, the government itself contributed to the fact that the war disappeared from the focus of public attention. Now information about military operations and reports of enemy shelling occupy a much smaller share in the Ukrainian information space than in the first months of the war. TV channels loyal to Bankova returned their usual entertainment programs and series to the air. And online media remembered the topic of corruption.

However, it would be a big mistake to say that Ukrainians are now only concerned about corruption and not about war. Let us repeat, the vast majority of respondents include both the fight against corruption and the war with Russia in the top 3 priorities for Ukraine. That is, people do not contrast these two tasks, but rather combine them.

And here we need to continue the conversation about how the perception of the war has changed over 20 months. The longer a full-scale war goes on, the further its end is pushed into the future in people's minds. And questions arise: why is this so, could it have been otherwise, and is the government doing everything necessary to bring victory closer.

The question of corruption begins to play the role of an answer to the question of war. Could there be more good news from the front? It could if the billions that were spent on corruption schemes turned into drones, weapons, ammunition, military equipment and fortifications.

Pre-election window of opportunity

This study, like many others before it, confirmed the high level of trust in Vladimir Zelensky. KIIS calls this the “rally around the flag” effect: after the large-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainians’ trust in their government agencies, especially the president, has increased significantly. Now 73% of respondents trust the president, 21% do not trust him.

But to trust does not mean to consider it effective. And this was very clearly shown by the results of the same study. Only 19% consider the actions of Ukraine's top leadership sufficient to carry out reforms in the country. And 71% are insufficient.

Respondents were also asked to evaluate specifically the list of reforms and tasks for Ukraine: “Which of these reforms, in your opinion, are really moving forward?” You could select all the options that apply. And this is what happened. “Tasks related to war” are really moving forward - 20% think so, the fight against corruption - 19%, digital transformation - 18%, the remaining six positions scored less than 10% each (from 7 to 2%), and 22% said that no reform is moving forward, 32% declined to answer.

When people talk about trust in a politician, they can put into it their assessment of “not a traitor or a thief.” But there is a big difference between simply “not a traitor” and “an effective commander-in-chief,” as well as between simply “not a thief” and “an effective fighter against corruption.”

The delta between the 73% confidence level and the 19% performance rating is very large. During pre-election times, it creates a window of opportunity for competitors. Especially for those who manage not to contrast two topics, but to combine them.

The topic of corruption will definitely not go away. Both Ukrainian media and Western partners will contribute to this. By the way, the opinion poll also included a question directly related to the customer: what support for the EU Advisory Mission is most relevant for Ukraine now. Seven specific types of support were offered, and respondents could select up to three responses. Almost half, 46%, said support is needed in the fight against corruption. It’s logical: if the Ukrainian government can’t cope, then let the EU help us.

A new surge of attention to the topic of corruption is expected after December 10, when the NACP promises to resume public access to electronic declarations of deputies and officials. All declarations that should not be closed will be available in the register, and there will be all submitted declarations for all time periods.

Media and bloggers will probably find a lot of interesting facts there. Will it be interesting to their audience? Opinion polls suggest that people are already waiting. Almost half of the respondents, 47%, called the electronic declaration system an effective tool in the fight against corruption. Two years ago, before the start of the big war, 36% thought so. It seems that interest in the declarations has grown precisely because during the full-scale war with Russia, intolerance towards corrupt officials in power and the need to at least somehow take revenge on them increased in society.

Let's not guess how potential candidates will react to this public request. We will see this soon - if, of course, elections do take place.