This winter is the second most difficult in the history of Ukraine, after the winter of 2022/2023. But despite other irritating or negative events - such as the delay of Western aid or a large number of scandals within the country related to corruption, the state is going through this winter normally in the energy sector. And although winter weather awaits us until at least mid-March, we have every reason to be cautiously optimistic that winter will pass.
Even despite the presence in Russia, according to GUR estimates, of more than 900 missiles and an indefinite number of suicide bombers. How does Ukraine manage to get through the winter so deftly?
In my opinion, three factors contribute to this.
The first is the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense.
Western air defense made Kyiv a uniquely safe place during the war, and the air defense of other Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure is being strengthened. In addition, the creation of mobile air defense groups makes it possible to effectively destroy suicide bombers. Passive protection also helps to strengthen air defense - camouflage, strengthening critical infrastructure. This is equipping certain objects with gabions, nets, and additional obstacles to prevent damage to sensitive areas.
The work of power engineers on decentralization of energy supply.
By and large, before the start of a full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian energy system differed little from the Soviet one and was not ready for the critical tests that the aggressor was preparing for it. In 2023, Ukrainian public and private energy companies have done a lot of homework - preparing reserve capacity for energy delivery, stocking up on transformers and equipment for repairs. I would especially like to note the work on developing safety protocols - emergency shutdowns, duplication of power systems and a bunch of other critical steps were worked out during the inter-winter period. Now that there is a threat to the energy sector, every technician knows what to do.
Ukraine's accession to the European energy market made it possible to insure at the national or regional level in case of supply disruptions thanks to the import of energy from Romania, Poland, Slovakia, and Poland. If situationally (due to damage to networks) a local excess of energy arises, we have the technical ability to export energy to these countries. November 28, 2023 The European network of transmission system operators ENTSO-E allowed us to increase imports of electrical energy from 1.2 gigawatts to 1.7 gigawatts. This can greatly stabilize our energy system during the shortages that can be expected during severe freezes.
We can also add that thanks to the Ukrainian gas industry, as well as purchases under the control of the Ministry of Energy, Ukraine has accumulated enough gas, oil, coal and nuclear fuel to successfully complete the heating season. But this is not an achievement, this is just a job well done.
But the first half of winter does not mean that all problems have been solved and that risks will disappear in subsequent years. Because there are several problems that were either created by the Russians, or they are a consequence of our own previous policies.
The first and most pressing problem right now is the lack of generating capacity.
Due to the consequences of massive attacks by the Russian Federation on energy facilities, last winter for the first time a situation arose where the Ukrainian energy system was going through the heating season with virtually no reserves of generating capacity. Last winter, when the Ukrainian air defense did not yet have Western capacities, about 50% of the generation capacity was damaged, especially thermal power. Also, about 45% of the capacity of high-voltage power lines was damaged. We are talking about substations where autotransformers and much other important equipment are located. It was mostly restored, but risks remain, because after a year it was impossible to completely overcome the consequences of such attacks.
The second and first of the long-term problems is the energy inefficiency of the Ukrainian public utilities and the Ukrainian economy as a whole.
Unfortunately, here Ukraine remains one of the worst in Europe. Unfortunately, over 30 years, we have only financed energy saving and energy modernization programs at a sufficient level for a few years (2016-2018) and at the expense of donors (the World Bank, the Government of Sweden and the Government of Germany). In terms of energy costs per 1000 dollars of production, we are better only than the aggressor country.
The third and second of the long-term problems is that the utility and energy infrastructure of most Ukrainian cities and communities is no less worn out than the Russian one.
We see everything in the news and rejoice at the accidents on Russian heating mains, water pipelines and energy networks. Most of these accidents are a consequence of the depletion of Russian utility infrastructure, money for the modernization of which was either stolen by Putin’s henchmen during his 25 years of rule, or was spent on the war against Ukraine and the entire Western world. But we shouldn’t think that our situation is radically better.
Over the past 10 years, Ukrainian cities and communities, thanks to decentralization, have had much more money to modernize public utilities, but, unfortunately, there have been a minimum of truly successful projects. City leaders preferred repairing sidewalks and parks because these projects were more electorally attractive. But plumbing repairs or heating system upgrades are less visible and harder to sell to voters. As a result, a significant part of Ukrainian cities are now sitting on a powder keg of worn-out networks.
All these problems are exactly the component of our long-term energy security and independence that must be taken into account both during and after the war. If state and local governments are looking for ways to spend money other than on the Defense Forces, this is the right place to put the effort at any time. After all, it will objectively make Ukraine stronger, ready for any military or peaceful winter.
