The mobilization will take place under the control of the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky. But will it be effective with high-quality personnel if neither the bottom nor the top want it? Only for different reasons: the former strive for justice, which is understood differently, the latter - to maintain ratings by softening unpopular steps
Why Ukrainians do not believe in the positive course of events, but Zelensky’s rating does not fall
The other day, the Razumkov Center released data from a recent survey, according to which the level of trust in the president is 69%, but at the same time, the proportion of those who believe that developments in the country are going in the wrong direction is growing. These are 38% versus 41% of optimists. Another 21% were undecided on their grades. The downward trend in optimism in society continues and it can be explained quite objectively: there has been less and less good news in recent months, and bad news falls on the heads of Ukrainians every day. At the same time, the high level of trust in Vladimir Zelensky against the backdrop of this trend will probably attract the attention of social psychologists, because usually a decrease in the level of optimism in society is directly correlated with an increase in distrust of the authorities in general and the first person of the state. There is no such thing here. Why?
The answer to this question is on several levels. First, in the survey itself among politicians, officials, and public figures, the level of trust in whom was measured, the name of ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny has been missing since yesterday. It is clear to everyone that the rating of all other people on the list is disproportionate to Zelensky’s rating. The second plane: people are afraid of a sharp deterioration of the situation as a result of serious internal political cataclysms. Hence the lack of support for elections until the end of the war, established in previous polls. After which they and the conversations about them decided to pause. Therefore, here we can rather talk not about a high assessment of actions, but about fear of tomorrow if the figure with whom so many are associated disappears.
Third plane: the “Zelensky phenomenon”, who knows how to please. And before the war, his personal rating was significantly higher than that of other figures and entire state institutions. Let's take the example of the bill on changes in mobilization. The head of state said that mobilization must be fair (in our country, people often attach opposite meanings to the concept of “fairness”), that he would not sign a law where there would be a mobilization of women, and that he was skeptical about the need for half a million potential recruits. Naturally, people like it. Here the list of other persons with positive dynamics in the rating attracts attention: Vitaly Kim, Sergey Pritula, Dmitry Kuleba, Mikhail Podolyak, Vasily Malyuk, Rustem Umerov, Igor Klimenko. These individuals were not seen producing news that was unpleasant for Ukrainians. And if such things happened, they did not concern us, but, for example, reproaches against our partners who were slowly helping us. Even Defense Minister Umerov managed to maintain a positive trend in the rating, although he managed to make irritating statements about mobilization for a significant part of the population.
So, the conclusion suggests itself that Ukrainians simply do not want to hear bad news. This is confirmed by a survey of Razumkovites: in February-March 2023, the share of citizens who considered the direction to be correct reached 61%. Let us remind you: 2022 ended with a number of high-profile victories for Ukrainian weapons, and it was in the spring of 2023 that the topic of a counteroffensive was actively promoted by government speakers.
Fourth plane: among those with positive rating dynamics, all except Pritula are officials from the president’s team or appointed with his consent. That is, the citizens surveyed do not associate the worsening situation with the presidential team. This would be good for Bankova, if not for a few “buts”: Andrey Ermak, Maryana Bezuglaya, David Arakhamia, Ruslan Stefanchuk, Denis Shmigal, Irina Vereshchuk, Daniil Getmantsev, whose rating is in the minus, are also people from the president’s team. Some kind of split in mass consciousness? If we remove Ermak from this list, whose influence was demonized even before the start of the large-scale invasion and was even more demonized during the war, and Arestovich (two years ago he had stellar ratings because he instilled in the Ukrainians the myth of an imminent victory), everyone else is each they irritate the population.
Separately among the “minus” ones are Vitaliy Klitschko, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko - those who can be classified as the opposition camp. This is not only the result of pro-government agitprop working against them, but also their legacy. The old methods in politics no longer work. Let us again recall the changes to mobilization. “Eurosolidarity” and “Batkivshchyna” did not support either the first or second versions of the bill; they publicly stated their claims to it: some legislative innovations are unconstitutional and need to be removed. It would seem that the level of trust should increase after this, but this did not happen. Obviously, a change of faces, speakers and meanings is needed.
As a conclusion, let us draw parallels between current events and events described in fiction. The novel “Catch-22” or “A Trick for Fools” by the American writer Joseph Heller is suitable for this. Its main character, military pilot John Yossarian, hates war and, in order to avoid participating in it, fakes a mental disorder. So he seeks to fall under the scope of statutory rule No. 22, which prohibits flights for distraught pilots. But nothing works out for him, because it becomes clear that he acts for rational reasons, which the mentally ill do not have. The exposed pilot is given a choice - to go to court or recognize the actions of the military command as correct. He chooses the third path - desertion to a neutral country.
Imitation by the people and the authorities. What does the damage matrix consist of?
It seems that the president has found himself in a “catch-22”, talking about justice during mobilization, realizing that there is no justice that everyone would recognize. It also included the authors of the bill, who still left unconstitutional provisions in it, because without restrictions on draft dodgers and expansion of the recruiting resource, mobilization will fail. And also people’s deputies who understand that without violating human rights it will not be possible to recruit hundreds of thousands of fighters into service, but they do not want to lose the remaining ratings, therefore they talk about anti-people changes to mobilization. An absurd situation, because everyone understands that it is extremely necessary to replenish the ranks of defenders. The foreign press openly writes about our problems with people at the front, and our enemies will say that there is no point in helping a country whose citizens refuse to fight for it. But no one wants to be, in the eyes of society, the final link in the chain of an unpopular decision. Therefore, responsibility is transferred in a triangle: Office of the President – Cabinet of Ministers – Verkhovna Rada. And this is as noticeable as the literary pilot’s attempt to “make a fool of himself.”
Citizens are also in the “trick for fools.” The emergence and widespread discussion of bills on changes in mobilization exposed several serious problems of society that make up the matrix of defeat. And to prevent it from working out, you need to set your priorities correctly. Both authorities and citizens. So, the first problem is disagreement about what fair mobilization should be. Residents of villages and towns mostly fall under the “harvest” of the TCC, so they see justice in the fact that residents of large cities, especially Kyiv, are mobilized with the same courage as the villagers. Now there is a lot of discussion about the events in Kosmach, Ivano-Frankivsk region, but the women there, who organized self-defense against the military commissars, have enough supporters throughout the country. It is possible that it will lead to local fights and arson of TCC buildings. And quarrels in families and among friends, when someone is mobilized and someone has a reservation.
The following discrepancy: “crooked and hunchbacked” civilian or military and police pensioners, deputies, active police officers, officials, businessmen, fake disabled people should serve. That is, equalizing justice - if everything, then everything. It should be understood that this type of justice has very strong roots and its violation (in the opinion of the public) can no longer lead to local protests, but to more serious events. Even if the protests are not massive, hostile propaganda will still take advantage of them. But why did the authorities, who really don’t want to harm their ratings with unpopular changes to the rules of mobilization, have to take such a step? Because it is ingrained in society “we believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but let others serve there,” and we will be the economic front, musical, sports, and so on.
The second problem - it was discussed in the first chapter - our society does not want to hear bad news, so the state propaganda machine tried to give such news in doses and with the right accents. The result of this was that a significant number of fellow citizens did not perceive even the thought of the need to strengthen mobilization. Now we need to tell the bitter truth, but no one wants to risk ratings. It’s even interesting which of the powerful speakers will be thrown into the information breach...
The third problem is that society is against large-scale and harsh mobilization, hence the popularity of a massive campaign about human rights violations, which included people’s deputies, experts, and lawyers. But this is self-deception - everyone, like the hero of Catch-22, will not be able to flee to other countries if the enemy intensifies his offensive and our exhausted defenders begin to retreat. You can say as much as you like that the general mobilization violates human rights, that it will deal a very strong blow to the economy and business, which is left without workers, but talk will in no way improve the situation at the front. Only parity in manpower and equipment and skillful command can improve it.
