Steel exports from China may be difficult in 2024 due to tightening protective measures

In 2023, foreign supplies helped contain domestic steel prices.

China's strong direct and indirect steel exports will face increased protective measures next year. This forecast , with reference to market participants, is given by Fastmarkets,

At the same time, in 2023, foreign supplies supported Chinese prices for steel products.

The China Iron and Steel Industry Association (CISA) noted in its trade report that steel exports from China are expected to be more difficult given the tighter trade situation in overseas markets.

The volumes of these exports are likely to be reduced as the EU, Brazil and India prepare to conduct additional anti-subsidy investigations, introduce import duties and approve quality parameters.

On the commodity side, low-grade iron ore will remain key to China's blast furnace production next year amid uncertain margins. Chinese buyers are expected to look to cheaper options such as Indian fines as an economic alternative to Australian fines after changing purchasing strategies in response to low steel production margins in 2022-23.

Increased production by Australian miners such as Rio Tinto, as well as new entrants such as Mineral Resources, is expected to boost regional supply.

Let us recall that steel exports from China have grown to a level that undermines international markets and may provoke new trade disputes. By the end of 2023, China may export about 90 million tons of steel. These volumes are approaching more than 110 million tons in 2015, when anti-dumping measures spread around the world.