Currently, society is faced with a choice: continue to fight or strive to end the conflict. To continue fighting, it is necessary to attract new forces. The second option is to try to freeze the war while looking for ways to a peaceful settlement.
So, bill No. 10378 “On amendments to certain legislative acts of Ukraine regarding the improvement of certain issues of mobilization, military registration and military service” has been registered in the Verkhovna Rada. It was developed by the Ministry of Defense and submitted to parliament by the Cabinet of Ministers. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has been entrusted with presenting the project in the Rada.
Two forecasts
It can be predicted that the law will be adopted more or less quickly. Because the army needs people. As Umerov noted in the explanatory note, “the adoption of the draft law of Ukraine will create conditions for the proper staffing of combat units in repelling armed aggression against Ukraine. After the adoption of this bill, it is expected that the process of manning the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations during mobilization will improve. Its implementation will contribute to the restoration and development of a society based on the values of patriotism and devotion to the state.”
But one more prediction can be made: the topic of mobilization, alas, will split society throughout 2024. It's already split. On the one hand, there are those who want to sit in the rear. They are against any measures (including bill No. 10378) that increase their chances of getting to the front. On the other hand, there are warriors and their families. They, on the contrary, support any measures that will ensure replenishment of our troops at the front and hasten the release from service of the soldiers mobilized at the beginning of the great war.
Escape from responsibility
Could the topic of mobilization be made less acute and painful? Can. To do this, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, had to appeal to the people: citizens sitting in the rear will not be able to sit out; if there is no one to fight, then Putin will hold a parade in Kyiv in a year, so welcome to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
But we see exactly the opposite - neither the president nor the ruling Servant of the People party wants to admit their responsibility for this decision, but instead there is a great desire to shift responsibility to the military.
As Ukrayinska Pravda reported, “servants of the people” in parliament received recommendations not to comment on bill No. 10378 at all. According to UP sources, the faction noted the need to adhere to the same line with the president, given the “sensitivity of the issue,” therefore, “the mobilization with society should be communicated by the military, from whom this request comes.” The faction emphasized that it is necessary to show discipline and refrain from comments until the military leadership begins to comment on the provisions of the bill and explains to the public why exactly such norms are proposed and what motivates them. “The faction should refrain from commenting on this matter in the media, at the international level, on social networks, and in personal communications. All questions, if any, should be forwarded to the military command ,” noted Servant of the People.
After this, Zelensky tried to distance himself as much as possible from bill No. 10378. In his video message on the evening of December 26, he misinformed Ukrainians that the military command had submitted to parliament a legislative proposal on new mobilization rules, although in fact this was a Cabinet draft.
“Today a discussion began about new mobilization rules. There is a legislative proposal - the military command, the Ministry of Defense, and other involved bodies have submitted it to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. It would be right for such norms to be discussed and adopted behind the scenes. And so that people understand what the vision of the military command is, what the motives are for certain rules and conditions, what the deputies propose, and how the issues that our soldiers already have in the Defense Forces are resolved,” Zelensky said. According to him, responsibility for the final version of the law lies with the “military together with the deputies”: “It would be right that, on the basis of the committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the military together with the deputies would decide how exactly the next year should be ensured at the legislative level for our Forces defense We are waiting for the final text of the law.”
What are the military responsible for?
Here the question may arise: what, the military should not be responsible for this law? This can be answered with a counter question: is our military the government? Responsibility is synonymous with power. Each government agency has its own area of responsibility. There is no such authority in the Constitution - the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, unlike the Verkhovna Rada, the President, the Cabinet of Ministers, and the courts, do not have any powers in relation to other citizens. The Rada issues laws, the President - decrees, the Cabinet of Ministers - resolutions, the courts - decisions that are binding throughout Ukraine. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not issue any regulations for the entire people, but only fulfill their constitutional function of defending Ukraine, protecting its sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability.
If Zelensky and the “servants of the people” want to shift responsibility to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this is easy to do in a completely legal manner. To do this, parliament must form a Cabinet of Ministers from the military. If the military Cabinet writes a bill on mobilization and submits it to the Rada, then it will be possible to say that the military and deputies are jointly responsible for it.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine were the government, then, of course, they could set tasks for society, including regarding mobilization. But our power is not the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the president, the “servants of the people” and the government formed by them. It is the government, using its powers, that sets tasks for both the military and civilians. And it is she who is responsible for providing the military with everything necessary, including human resources, to carry out the tasks that she has set for them. And the military can only inform the authorities about their needs to carry out their assigned tasks.
Why was bill No. 10378 needed?
One can assume this version of events.
The authorities demanded that the military demonstrate noticeable successes on the battlefield in 2024.
The military reported: for this we need to mobilize three times more in 2024 than in 2023.
Power: justify it.
Military: those who were mobilized in 2023 were not even enough to make up for losses. Many brigades at the front are now seriously short-staffed. At the same time, in 2023 we have not achieved noticeable successes on the battlefield. To carry out major offensive operations, additional large reinforcements are needed. In addition, in 2023, people fought for the second year in a row. In 2024, they will fight for the third year in a row. After three years of service, they need to be demobilized for at least two years, but for this it is necessary to prepare a replacement for them.
Power: what if nothing changes?
Military: then success on the battlefield will be more likely not for us, but for the enemy.
After this, the government ordered the Ministry of Defense to prepare a bill that would provide the necessary human resources for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
News for the military
For those who have been at the front since the beginning of the great war, the main news is two changes in laws.
Article 26 of the Law “On Military Duty and Military Service” introduces a rule that military personnel undergoing conscription military service (including mobilized, reservists, officers) or regular military service are dismissed from service “in connection with the end of period of service (if the military personnel did not express a desire to continue military service) - in the case of continuous service during martial law for 36 months.”
Article 23 of the Law “On Mobilization Preparation and Mobilization” introduces a rule that those liable for military service who served during the legal regime of martial law and were discharged from service into the reserve are not subject to conscription for military service during mobilization for two years from the date of discharge from military service.
Thus, everyone who has fought for three years after the start of the big war will be able to retire to the reserves. And they can be called up again no earlier than in two years.
News for civilians
Bill No. 10378 proposes to lower the age at which men are not subject to conscription for basic military service and, therefore, can be mobilized from 27 to 25 years. This can provide a significant replenishment of the Armed Forces with fresh forces.
In addition, the possibilities for deferment are reduced. In particular, those students who already have one higher education are deprived of the right to deferment.
At the same time, the responsibilities of citizens are expanding:
- citizens are required to register the electronic account of a conscript, a person liable for military service, or a reservist in the manner established by the Cabinet of Ministers;
- citizens registered with the military are required to clarify their residential address, contact phone number, email address and other military registration data within 30 days by arriving independently at the territorial recruitment center (TCC) or the center for the provision of administrative services, as well as in the electronic account conscript, conscript, reservist;
- Citizens recognized as partially fit for military service are subject to repeated medical examination.
A summons to the TCC can be served on a citizen in person:
- in the premises of the TCC - by representatives of the TCC;
- at the place of residence (stay) - by TCC representatives or police officers;
- at the place of work - by TCC representatives, the employer or the police;
- in public places - by TCC representatives or police officers.
A summons to the TCC can be sent to a citizen through the electronic account of a conscript, a member liable for military service and a reservist, or by e-mail.
What Zaluzhny said
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, confirmed during a telethon on December 26 that the military command had issued a request for human resources. “ We have formed this figure for next year . It takes into account covering the current shortages that have arisen, the formation of military units and forecasting our losses that we may suffer over the next year. I cannot voice this figure and which figure relates to this or that section of these indicators. This is a military secret,” he said.
Zaluzhny also explained that the military command sends these figures to the Ministry of Defense. “We are generating requests for resources, including planning for the next year and showing the estimated numbers needed to complete tasks next year,” he said. “We submit all these proposals to the Ministry of Defense as a subject of legislative initiative, which then decides how to meet these needs. Or by forming any legislative initiatives, or concluding agreements, etc. Therefore, our position is quite simple: we need shells, we need weapons, we need people. Everything else is carried out by the relevant bodies that have the authority to do so .”
What Zaluzhny kept silent about
The commander-in-chief did not express any complaints or reproaches - neither to politicians, nor to the media, nor to society. Actually, it is not his function to teach or admonish someone. In addition, such statements could be regarded as political initiative and become a reason for dismissal.
It turns out to be a strange situation. Zelensky and the “servants of the people”, being the political authorities, have every opportunity to explain to the people why there was a need for Bill No. 10378, but they are afraid to do this so as not to lose their rating and earn an anti-rating. At the same time, Zaluzhny does not have the right to tell the people the truth. Once, in an article for The Economist, he tried to tell a little truth about how the war had reached a technological dead end , and he and Bankova were immediately bombarded with accusations that he had caused “panic” among Western partners.
Meanwhile, right now, when the split in society on the issue of mobilization is deepening, it is especially necessary to tell society the truth more often. This is the only thing that can help him get rid of infantilism and grow up faster. The more society becomes accustomed to the truth, the more calmly it will face bad news and react to it more adequately. Instead, the well-fed rear is fed children's fairy tales from a telethon, and then he becomes hysterical - why suddenly mobilize, I don’t want to go to war.
To put it bluntly, the truth is that society is now faced with a choice: continue to fight or try to freeze the war. To fight further, we need fresh forces. Without this, next year we risk suffering new territorial losses, especially since the enemy continues to build up its army.
What choice to make is up to society to decide. Zelensky and the “servants of the people” react to his opinion. And if the government, sensing a change in the mood of the people, wants to freeze the war, then the military here will not be able to prove anything to anyone, but will only accept the order of the government for execution.
But before making a choice, society must recognize another danger. If it does not want to help its soldiers with fresh forces, but prefers to seek a compromise with Putin, then the soldiers may lose the desire to defend such a society. They will feel betrayed. Those who can will emigrate (as soon as martial law is lifted after the war is frozen). And when in a couple of years Putin, having accumulated strength, attacks again, the development of events may be the saddest.
Therefore, the only salvation now is the unity of society. The split now is not between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, but much deeper - between two parts of society. And to treat it - this should be a common task of politicians, the media and all citizens who are not at war - while the military is at war.
