Foreign exchange market in September: An expert assesses the prospects for the dollar

The dollar exchange rate at the beginning of September will remain within UAH 37-38. At the same time, after September 15, foreign currency may rise in price.

Economic expert, member of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin told Facts ICTV about this.

“Nothing will grow now.” In addition, the National Bank is now even reducing currency restrictions. Thus, he allowed banks to sell non-cash currency to the population, the expert points out.

The NBU also increased from UAH 100,000 to UAH 200,000 the limit on the population’s purchase of non-cash foreign currency with subsequent placement on deposit for three months, thereby withdrawing some of the funds from the foreign exchange market.

At the same time, according to Pendzin, after September 15, the hryvnia exchange rate may fall, as there may be surprises related to financing.

In particular, on September 15, in accordance with Ukrainian legislation, the Cabinet of Ministers must submit a draft budget for 2024 to the Verkhovna Rada. The draft budget should include macro-financial assistance from our partners for the next year.

— As far as I know, there are no credit guarantees from the Americans yet. That is, these credit guarantees must be available by September 15. If they exist, then the exchange rate will be more or less stable; if there are problems with credit guarantees, then the National Bank will be forced to reprint the hryvnia in order to ensure the full amount of financing of social expenditures. This could lead to a fall in the exchange rate,” the expert noted.