War as a business

Ukraine has become an attractive market for Balkan gunsmiths - The Economist

Western Balkan arms manufacturers are booming. Since 2020, Serbian arms exports have quadrupled; Since the invasion of Ukraine, approximately €800 million worth of ammunition has been supplied.

Bosnia's exports almost doubled in the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Its ammunition factories operate around the clock, says Jasmin Mujanovic of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy think tank.

The particular interest of Ukraine and its allies in weapons from Balkan manufacturers is due to their ability to produce ammunition and equipment of both Soviet and NATO standards.

Balkan weapons tend to be cheap: a shell can cost a quarter less than a Western weapon, according to The Economist.

Both Bosnia and Serbia have laws that prohibit the sale of weapons to war zones. But they found workarounds through third parties. America, for example, is the main buyer of ammunition from Bosnia, which it redirects to Ukraine.

Serbia, despite its refusal to impose sanctions against Russia, transports thousands of artillery shells through the Czech Republic, Turkey and many companies that produce shells. For some regional governments, this is an opportunity to gain political authority from the United States and the European Union. This is especially true for those seeking to join the EU, in particular Bosnia and Albania. Ukraine benefits from this.

Moreover, for Aleksandar Vucic, the president of Serbia, selling arms to Ukraine is part of his balancing strategy between the West and Russia. But it's also good business.

Earlier, Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevich said that his country would not interfere with the sale of ammunition to the West, even if it ended up in Ukraine. At the same time, he added that “his country is not a party to the conflict in Russia’s war against Ukraine.”