In October of this year, parliamentary elections were supposed to be held in Ukraine, according to constitutional deadlines. The presidential elections are due to take place in March next year. Due to the open Russian invasion and the imposition of martial law, plans changed.
The Verkhovna Rada is already operating in a “semi-legal regime”, since, according to the Constitution, the current deputy corps resigns powers only after the election of a new parliament, and the Basic Law does not, in principle, contain an automatic extension of presidential powers. Such nuances, against the backdrop of unambiguous “hints” from the West and concerns of the Office of the President regarding the ratings of Vladimir Zelensky, are forcing Bankova to already plan the start of the election campaign in the spring of next year.
Vladimir Zelensky, in a recent interview with the Associated Press, said that he is ready to hold presidential elections in the country, although, as the publication notes, the majority of the country’s citizens are against such an idea. At the same time, the head of state does not imagine that at such a difficult moment for the country he can leave his post.
Despite some uncertainty, movement towards elections has begun. According to the information available to the editors of Apostrophe, some work in this direction is already underway. In some regions, calls are being made to former members of district and territorial election commissions with a clear focus on the likely organization of the elections. According to Apostrophe sources, the working date for the presidential elections is March 31. Parliamentary meetings - if everything goes according to this plan - could be held next fall.
This is not the first time that President Zelensky has given an ambiguous answer as to whether the government is ready to hold elections next year or whether the answer is “more likely no” than “yes.” Vladimir Zelensky said in his video message on November 6 that the current time is not right for holding elections. In his opinion, in conditions of hostilities, when the country is faced with numerous challenges, initiating discussions and holding elections is not only unreasonable, but also an irresponsible step.
In the summer, the head of state also expressed skepticism about the possibility of voting during hostilities, noting that then observers would have to be in the trenches.
In an interview with Portuguese television, Zelensky said that he would agree to participate in presidential elections if they take place before the end of the conflict. Then, in a conversation with the Italian television channel Sky TG24, the president said that provided that parliament and the government find solutions to all challenges, elections can be held during a period of martial law.
“On Bankova there were both opponents and supporters of the elections next year. The situation is difficult, but in the event of elections, Zelensky has every chance of being re-elected if Zaluzhny does not participate in the race. Other potential contenders for the presidential post do not have sufficient support from the electorate, so the opposition’s goal now is, among other things, to drag the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into politics. On the one hand, there are contradictions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, but on the other hand, removing him from office means opening the way for him to enter politics. The situation remains difficult: the opposition wants elections, but does not have the opportunities, and the authorities, having the opportunities, are afraid to take additional risks,” Vladimir Fesenko, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research, tells Apostrophe.
An October poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that 81% of respondents believe that elections should be held after the end of the war, while only 16% support the idea of holding elections under current conditions. According to the Razumkov Center, as of September, 64% of respondents were against holding elections while hostilities were ongoing.
The reason that Bankovaya is considering the option of holding elections may also be some pressure from foreign partners. Western allies began discussing the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine in the spring, emphasizing that the Charter of the Council of Europe obliges the country to organize elections despite the state of war, which was particularly noted by the head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Tiny Cox.
Then in August, the idea of elections, despite the war, was supported by prominent US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. It is important to clarify that Senator Graham represents that part of the Republican Party that, since 2014, has strictly supported our country in the fight against Russian aggression - first “hybrid” and then open.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Dmitry Kuleba, reacting to such comments from Western partners, noted that President Zelensky is considering the possibility of holding elections in the spring of 2024, but without details of which option Bankova is leaning towards.
Representatives of the opposition (especially Petro Poroshenko’s “European Solidarity”, but not only them) insist that Bankova has already ordered preparations for the elections to begin, and “pressure” from the West is only a formal reason. At the same time, from the actions of top oppositionists - the same Petro Poroshenko or the capital's mayor Vitaliy Klitschko - it is clear that they are, at a minimum, mentally prepared for the start of the election race. The story of Petro Poroshenko’s unsuccessful trip to Hungary and Vitali Klitschko’s controversial statements that Ukraine is moving towards authoritarianism can be regarded as an election move.
“Oddly enough, it is beneficial for the Office of the President to spread rumors about holding elections, although for society the very idea of holding a vote in war conditions is very odious. Including the opposition to run ahead of the locomotive, making a bunch of mistakes. After all, even if the West insists on holding elections during martial law, many issues regarding organization and security remain unresolved. It is clear that the occupiers will attack polling stations. Such concerns will be reflected in turnout. Even if you imagine voting “on the Internet,” such options are not credible and, accordingly, questions will arise regarding the counting of votes. Western partners, for democratic reasons, can push Kyiv towards elections, and we, in turn, depend on their help, so such fluctuations in the authorities’ position on this issue are understandable,” political expert Petr Oleshchuk tells Apostrophe.
Whether or not elections can be held during an open invasion by the Russian Federation is a debatable issue from a legal point of view.
The Law “On the Martial Law Regime” and the Electoral Code of Ukraine prohibit holding elections in conditions of military conflict, but, judging by the situation, this is not an argument for election supporters. Especially considering that the Constitution, which has a higher status before laws, does not directly prohibit the holding of elections during the “hot phase” of a military conflict.
The Basic Law does not contain a direct prohibition on holding elections during the martial law regime. The Constitution also specifies that if the term of office of parliament expires during the war, the Verkhovna Rada continues its activities in its existing composition until a new parliament is elected after the lifting of martial law. On the other hand, the Basic Law does not contain direct indications that the powers of the President can be automatically extended under martial law.
That is, in any case, it all comes down to the question of how legitimate the elections and their results will be if held during a war, when part of the country’s territory is occupied, masses of people left their homes, moving to other regions or even abroad.
“If we are guided by the Constitution, then elections (presidential or parliamentary) during war are impossible, but Ukraine is a country of opportunities. And not always positive opportunities. The leadership of the state, under certain circumstances, can go to elections, but we must take into account that the new composition of the Verkhovna Rada, if we talk about parliamentary elections, may have serious problems in terms of legitimacy and, accordingly, the legitimacy of the laws that it will adopt. The current composition of the parliament is already working in a “semi-legal regime,” but this is not as scary as when the parliament is recognized as completely illegitimate,” lawyer Rostislav Kravets tells Apostrophe.
From a formal legal point of view, the situation for the authorities remains difficult.
“We don’t have good options, so if you choose the best from the worst, it’s better to leave it as it is. At least the Rada has an argument that the powers of people’s deputies continue until the parliament is elected. Therefore, there are fewer complaints about the laws that they are still adopting than about those that will be adopted by a potentially new parliament, elected during the Kremlin’s open invasion of our country,” added Rostislav Kravets.
The situation with the presidential elections is even more complicated. Despite Vladimir Zelensky’s statements that holding elections is currently irrelevant, his position on the issue of compliance of the idea of elections in war conditions with the Constitution remains unclear. A way out of the situation could be a decision to appeal to the Constitutional Court to obtain clarification on whether the idea of holding elections (of parliament and president) during a war is consistent with the Basic Law of the country or not. After the conclusion of the Constitutional Court, it will be possible to make decisions based on considerations of the constitutionality and security of the vote itself.
Considering that the Office of the President has not yet expressed its intention to appeal to the Constitutional Court, thus maintaining intrigue around this issue, the likelihood of holding parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 remains very high.
“The authorities, fearing a drop in ratings, are thinking about elections. They understand that a drop in popularity will sooner or later result in electoral losses. “Isn’t it better to move now?” – this is how election supporters surrounded by President Zelensky might argue. But even if it is “now,” it is better to go to the elections against the backdrop of successes at the front, otherwise the risks are too great. For the opposition, the situation is even more suspended and uncertain, since even the difficult situation on the line of contact does not guarantee them the result they are counting on,” summarized the head of the Council of Lawyers of the Kyiv Region, Petr Boyko, in an interview with Apostrophe.
According to sources associated with the Office of the President, the final decision on whether to make a political decision regarding the elections or not will be made before the end of December. “If the stars do align, then active preparations will begin after the New Year holidays,” says an informed source.
