Lay low or decide. Two strategies for “healing” after May 18

On May 18, a law on tightening mobilization comes into force, according to which all those liable for military service must update their data in the TCC within 60 days.

How many Ukrainians who do not have reservations and other deferments from mobilization will update this data (not to mention something more) even under the threat of fines?

First of all, it is not yet clear how the collection of fines through the executive service will be carried out in practice. How many people should it have to ensure a huge flow of collections? It is one thing to write off funds from accounts - this can happen automatically, after notifying the bank. It’s quite another to describe property.

“In order to ensure such a number of enforcement proceedings, the number of employees of the executive service must exceed the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are still overwhelmed with business. And if hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of fines are imposed on evaders, then this will paralyze the activities of the service. In such a situation, it will only be realistic for banks to send a notice of seizure to write off amounts from accounts,” one of the employees of the State Executive Service told Strana.

A person who does not have the right to a deferment, but does not want to go to serve, will obviously have two strategies to choose from.

The first is not to update your information, fearing that a summons will arrive immediately after this.

But in order to protect himself from fines and forced transfer to the military registration and enlistment office, he will need to reset his bank accounts, and ideally, transfer the property to relatives and not come to the attention of the police. That is, at a minimum, go outside. For those who live abroad, this is easier. For those in Ukraine, it’s harder. But, as the practice of recent years shows, many men have already adapted to life in “recluse.”

But not everyone will succeed. Those who will somehow be forced to move through the streets will most likely use the second strategy - update the data, but at the same time try to resolve the issue in one way or another so that they are not subsequently sent to the army (issue a reservation, disability, etc.). d.). That is, accordingly, corruption will increase greatly.

In what proportion those who do not want to serve will be divided between these two paths - it is impossible to say for sure yet. But there will certainly be many who decide to go “underground” and completely cut off all ties with the state. In fact, a huge “shadow country” will arise, existing in parallel with the official country. With its own rules of life and services at home.

Corruption in the police will help this “shadow country” exist. People will try to negotiate with the police on the spot so that they will not pay attention to their lack of a military ID and outdated credentials. And in many cases, most likely, these attempts will be successful.

It is possible that “protecting swindlers” will become as commonplace for police as protecting prostitution or drug trafficking “in the area.” And perhaps even more profitable. Taking into account the number of potential swindlers.

In any case, the implementation of large-scale repressive measures against violators of military registration, which are provided for by law, implies the presence of a very powerful, non-corrupt and effective security apparatus, which is absent in Ukraine.

Therefore, attempts to implement these measures will only to a small extent contribute to solving the problems of replenishing the army, and to a greater extent will lead to an increase in arbitrariness, corruption and embitterment of the population towards the authorities.

In addition, those who do not want to serve will most likely try to leave Ukraine by any means. Just as the departure of young people under 18 from the country is intensifying.