And now the main question is whether the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive the necessary powers to implement his breakthrough plan to break the deadlock on the battlefield.
Contrary to those who believe that there is no alternative to Zaluzhny’s resignation in the near future, I am convinced that for now this issue remains open. And it can be resolved constructively - with Zaluzhny retaining his post and receiving the necessary powers to change the situation on the battlefield in favor of our troops.
Because the other day, although four months late, President Zelensky finally admitted that the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was right. Who, back in early November, stated that the situation in the battles on land had reached a dead end.
After categorical objections to this objective statement of Zaluzhny both from President Zelensky himself and from an official of his office Zhovkva (as authoritative military analyst Sergei Badrak aptly put it about the latter character, “some faded deputy head of the president’s office quite seriously criticizes the army commander in chief, who is leading war, and criticizes for decadent sentiments - this does not add up to anything"), finally the president publicly acknowledged the correctness of Zaluzhny’s conclusion. He did this not in an address to the Ukrainian people, but in an interview with the Italian TV channel Rai1.
At the same time, the President absolutely correctly noted that, in contrast to stagnation on the battlefield on land, the Defense Forces managed to achieve significant successes at sea. That is, to fully realize the chance that I wrote about back in April 2022: “There is an opportunity to deliver at least a very strong, and possibly destructive blow to one of the largest symbols of Russian military power - the Russian Black Sea Fleet. We still do not have the necessary weapons for operations on land. But at sea it already exists. And the massive and successful use of this durable weapon with the flooding of a significant part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet can finally consolidate our successes.”
President Zelensky also spoke about the insufficient quantity and irregular supply of the necessary weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as one of the reasons for the lack of large-scale successes during our offensive on land last year: “As for the land line, there is stagnation there. And this is a fact, because something was missing. Sometimes you think that this is the date, they will go forward. I believe there have been delays in terms of the quantity of appropriate ammunition."
But now the question arises: now, six months after the unsuccessful offensive on land and with the current critical circumstances with the supply of weapons from our main ally - the United States - President Zelensky, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, will look for the ultimate culprit of the entire complex of our problems or will he lead the search for a common answer to the question " What should be done in this most difficult situation?”
The decision Zelensky makes will demonstrate his ability to act as a statesman in a critical situation. The opportunity to act like a real statesman is on one side of the scale. On the other side of the scale is the opportunity for him to act purely for current political reasons - to try to appoint the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as the main culprit for the existing problems, to try to maintain his rating through the dismissal of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to collapse the trust rating of Zaluzhny as a potential political competitor, and the like.
The first way - to act like a real statesman - necessitates the consolidation of the efforts of all those who have the necessary skills, experience, connections with allies and their trust, as well as, more importantly, trust among the military and society to work together to save the state. And Zaluzhny is unconditionally number 1 on this list.
Moreover, in his article in The Economist four months ago, he already outlined what exactly needs to be done in order to successfully exit the trench war. And last week he spelled out everything even more clearly in a piece for CNN with a calculated action plan for five months. In other words, the commander-in-chief has prepared a clear plan for waging war for 2024, with specific steps and deadlines for their implementation.
No one else in the domestic military-political leadership has such a plan. And also does not have the combination of brilliant, thorough theoretical training and two years of unique practical experience in leading large successful operations against a stronger enemy in a full-scale war, necessary for successful resistance to Russian aggression.
In such conditions, it would be optimal to provide Zaluzhny, at the level of the NSDC decision, with the necessary powers to implement his action plan. With a fixed deadline for this implementation of five months, which Zaluzhny himself set in a material for CNN, and with a clear fixation of his, Zaluzhny’s, responsibility for the result.
This will stabilize the situation among the military, where Zaluzhny enjoys enormous trust and authority, and in society, where the commander-in-chief also has enormous levels of trust and authority.
If a different course is chosen and the option to dismiss Zaluzhny is implemented—this option also remains possible today—then the country’s leadership, in addition to the already existing extremely serious challenges, should prepare for additional significant and dangerous challenges. Which will concern a whole range of important areas - starting from possible demoralization in the troops and society, continuing with complications of the situation on the battlefield and ending with the deterioration of relations with key Western allies.
The decision on which option to choose will be made by the president in the next two weeks. Since it is already necessary to begin preparations for the consequences of the inevitable new wave of large-scale mobilization in Russia after Putin’s election for another presidential term in mid-March and the enemy’s attempt to launch a new big offensive after this mobilization.
It is obvious that our country should meet the invasion of the enemy with a consolidated and strong Armed Forces of Ukraine, led by the experienced, outstanding military leader Zaluzhny, with whom our people were deservedly and extremely lucky in a critical era of their history.
