Winter power shortage without large-scale shelling. What are the reasons?

Ukraine was forced to turn to the European Union for emergency assistance twice due to electricity shortages, which forced it to purchase the most expensive of all types of imported energy. There was no alternative: either a shutdown first for enterprises and then for the population. The shortage of electricity is due to several factors: a drop in temperature, problems with regular imported energy supplies and emergency shutdowns of thermal power plant units. Most of them have already been eliminated. The weather gave the energy system a short break as temperatures rose for two days. However, with the beginning of this week, frosts returned to Ukraine, and energy consumption increased again. Another factor may be added to this – possible Russian attacks on infrastructure.

When did the electricity shortage occur?
Ukraine had to ask for emergency aid from the European Union at least twice in the past week. For the first time on Wednesday, November 22: a significant shortage of electricity was recorded in the energy system; Ukraine was unable to increase current generation - there were no reserves.

“Ukrenergo was forced to activate emergency assistance from transmission system operators in Romania, Slovakia, and Poland with a total volume of 1,800 MWh,” the company explained.

To understand, this volume of electricity is almost equal to the power of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. Its two units produce 2000 MW.

A shortage in the energy system was also recorded last Thursday. Ukrenergo called on Ukrainians to save money.

“This is the most difficult time for the energy system - from 17.00 to 19.00 the period of maximum consumption lasts. And we already see that our graph (consumption) is growing. With several power plant units still under repair and unable to operate, this disrupts the balance between electricity consumption and production, which is the main condition for the safe operation of the power system. Imported electricity is also not enough to cover the deficit in the energy system - instead of the technically possible maximum of 1200 MW in certain hours, there is a maximum of 609 MW,” Ukrenergo emphasized.

Shutdowns of household consumers were avoided. And since Friday the situation has improved significantly - no deficit was recorded.

Why is there not enough?
There are several reasons. The first is frost. This week, in some regions, the thermometer dropped to -8°C. The lower the temperature, the more current the state requires.

“The weather was a big factor. The increase in consumption due to frost was about 10%. And you know that we entered the heating season, in fact, without power reserves, because due to destruction and damage everything cannot be restored,” emphasized Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.

The Center for Energy Research notes that if the air temperature remains at -8°C or lower, blackouts for the population may become a reality. The company published schedules for power consumption restrictions at the beginning of autumn. Experts urge consumers to prepare for this scenario.

Another factor that led to a lack of electricity is the high accident rate at thermal power plants. Last week, three units of thermal power plants were stopped for short-term repairs, the Ministry of Energy reported. The department added: nuclear energy currently generates the most electricity for the country. There are 9 nuclear power plant units operating, producing 55% of the total. But thermal stations play another very important role for the energy system - maneuvering. They can quickly increase or decrease current generation depending on demand.

“Usually this is simply wear and tear of equipment, because the vast majority of thermal power plant units were built back in the 60s of the last century. And it is clear that sometimes they fail. They need constant supervision. Sometimes emergency protection is triggered if, for example, the quality of electricity does not correspond to the established one. Sometimes transformer equipment fails. The dispatcher doesn't see this. He is sitting in Kyiv, he can only state a fact. That's all. There were 100 megawatts or 300, but now it’s zero,” explained Doctor of Sciences, energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev.

The third reason for the shortage is small volumes of imports from the European Union. And here the legislation played a cruel joke on us. In Ukraine, the electricity market operates a system of price caps, that is, maximum limit prices for electricity. And these restrictions very often do not allow the full import of current. That is why in critical situations the state is forced to ask for emergency assistance from the European Union.

“How expensive is it? We can say briefly that approximately emergency assistance can be 50% more expensive than purchasing imported electrical energy under contracts,” stated Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.

This issue was already discussed at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council in early November. And President Vladimir Zelensky recommended that the energy regulator (NKREKU) bring the maximum maximum prices for current into compliance.

“To work on the issue of ensuring economic conditions for attracting imports of electrical energy during the autumn-winter period of 2023/24,” says the presidential decree.

In the end, NEURC increased the price caps, but the new prices will go into effect on December 1. There is no talk of completely abolishing such a mechanism.

“We solved two problems. The first is further, step-by-step liberalization of our energy market and bringing its rules closer to the rules of the European Union. Secondly, in fact, we have created investment conditions for attracting highly maneuverable capacities to the generation, which can be turned on during the day in a very short period, but provide peak load when the demand for electrical energy is the greatest,” explained the head of NEURC Konstantin Ushchapovsky.

Massive drone attack
Russia launched a record number of drones into Ukraine on Saturday night. The air force reported that 75 suicide bombers were flying to bomb Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense failed to shoot down only one drone. The main target for the Russians was Kyiv.

“Several powerful main power lines supplying Kyiv and the cities around were damaged and switched off at night due to this dense and very powerful attack by suicide bombers,” said Vladimir Kudrytsky, Chairman of the Board of NEC Ukrenergo.

12 thousand consumers in the capital were left without electricity. However, power supply was restored the same day. In general, the invasion did not have serious consequences for the Ukrainian energy system.

“Such a number – 75 drones – have never been used before. So, we can really say that Russia tried to test new routes and flight paths. This was an experiment for them on the eve of winter and low temperatures,” noted Alexander Kovalenko, military-political observer of the Information Resistance group.

Will there be power outages in winter?
Due to worsening weather over the weekend, this week will be especially difficult, Ukrenergo emphasized. The company does not exclude the possibility of a new electricity shortage.

“We hope that the accident rate of units at power plants will be lower and we will have more generation to cover consumption,” said Vladimir Kudritsky.

Last winter, the Russians attacked about half of the Ukrainian energy system facilities, Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. He believes that it is impossible to restore everything, but the country is well prepared for winter. Meanwhile, renovations at some facilities continue. The government is convinced that Ukraine has had a stable first month of the heating season: there are sufficient fuel reserves and the technical condition of the systems is satisfactory. But Russia has not yet resorted to massive missile attacks.

Yes, they attack the power grid every day, it's true. They try to destroy the maximum number of objects. There has not yet been such a massive attack as the first strike on October 10 (last year), with about a hundred missiles simultaneously attacking all targets. But I think they are preparing for this. We have much stronger air defense now,” says German Galushchenko.

If blackout schedules have to be used, they will be fair. The Ministry of Energy promises to control the process. At the same time, Ukrenergo once again called on Ukrainians to save electricity in crisis situations. Moreover, this applies not only to the population, but also to business.

“If enterprises shift electricity consumption to the night whenever possible, then we have every chance of avoiding blackouts,” said Vladimir Kudritsky.

The Energy Research Center is confident that the targets for Russian shelling remain unchanged. Just like last winter, they will try to bomb electrical generation. They will probably also try to leave cities without heat. But this is a much more difficult task.

“We must admit that heat and power plants, which in Ukraine are still slightly smaller than thermal power plants (CHPs), are concentrated in Kyiv, are in Kharkov. A large number of other cities are not completely dependent on their combined heat and power plant. For example, in Odessa, about 30% of the city is thermal power plants, and 70% of the city is small boiler houses located throughout Odessa. And, accordingly, it will be much more difficult to damage them; they provide such a decentralized safety margin for heating systems,” emphasized Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Center for Energy Research.