Winter blackout scenario: will we sit in the dark for 20 hours, forecasts from Ukrenergo

Now it is difficult to say what will happen to the Ukrainian energy system and power outages in winter. In particular, everything depends on Ukraine’s ability to restore power damaged by Russian attacks.

The chairman of the board of NEC Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky, commented on information from some media and statements by specialists about long outages in winter.

“No one knows what kind of damage awaits us in the coming months and what fleet of power units at thermal and hydroelectric power plants we will have in the autumn-winter period,” he said.

According to Kudritsky, such forecasts can now be compared to fortune telling on coffee grounds. However, there is both a pessimistic scenario and a more optimistic one, which depends on damage to the energy facility.

He notes: indeed, in winter, light can be provided for several hours a day - this is a “pessimistic scenario.” Kudritsky explains that then periods of blackouts “can last not 4 hours after 4, but 6-7 hours without light, and 2-3 hours with light.”

Ukrenergo specialists are now working on several scenarios for the heating season, says the general director of Ukrenergo. According to him, only a small circle of people are familiar with these details, so journalists or representatives of other energy companies have a reliable plan for the winter electricity situation.

“There are scenarios with cold and warm winters. Now this is fortune telling on coffee grounds. As an operator, we calculate the worst and best cases that can await us, and the actions during each of them. But we simply cannot warn people that there will be no electricity for 12-15-20 hours, because no one knows what really awaits us,” Kudritsky said.

BBC journalists write that in winter Ukrainians can be without light and heat for up to 20 hours a day. According to the authors of the material, this is the worst-case scenario. it could become a reality if Russia continues to attack power plants. Part of the problem is that Ukraine's thermal and hydroelectric power plants are difficult and expensive to repair.

“Some will take years to repair, while others may never resume operations,” said Maria Tsaturyan, communications director at NEC Ukrenergo.