During March 21-22, the Russians carried out two massive missile attacks - the first on Kyiv, the second throughout the country. Can the Russians terrorize Ukraine with missiles for a few more weeks and is Russia capable of sending new armies to the front to attack from the north? Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the Information Resistance group, shared his opinion on air.
2-3 more hits
There will be no repetition of the May-June scenario last year. But it is possible that the Russians, after conducting reconnaissance in force and the main massive strike, will also conduct additional reconnaissance. This may be limited ammunition, which can be directed at one of the objects, at one of the areas that has been under attack all this time.
Limited ammunition - it can be from 20 to 30 missiles or weapons. Therefore, you need to be quite careful and not ignore air raid warnings. Because the Russians can still carry out pre-reconnaissance activities 2-3 times.
Front unchanged
Much depends on the resources that the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the enemy have. Perhaps the most fierce phase of the war will be in the second half of 2024. But it still depends on many factors, both on the enemy’s side and on what we have available.
Mobilization
Without mobilization, the Russians will not be able to organize any of the offensive actions they are planning. Therefore, now they are trying to create new units, a new combined arms army. Another question is whether they will be able to fully form an army and equip it. The fact is that you cannot assemble tanks or combat vehicles out of thin air. And a lot of them are needed for motorized rifle divisions and brigades. That is, it is not only a human resource, but also technology.
I do not rule out that if the Russians are able to form new combined arms armies, they will mainly consist of marching battalions, and not of BTGs.
If we talk about an army of 100 thousand, then such a force can capture one of the small cities - Chasov Yar or Kupyansk. For example, near Avdeevka the Russians had 120 thousand. You cannot take big cities with such an army.
Attack from the north
Today, the Ukrainian-Russian border on the Russian side is covered by a small group, which has the appropriate name “Border Cover Group.” This is approximately 35 thousand personnel plus about a thousand reserves. And this grouping is divided into three groups of troops - “Bryansk”, “Belgorod” and “Kursk”.
So if we are talking about an attack on a city like Sumy, for example, then 35 thousand will in no way be able to do this.
Yes, the enemy can concentrate 100 thousand and send them in the direction of Sumy. But this quantity will be critically insufficient to capture or encircle a city like Sumy. In order for the offensive campaign to capture or encircle Sumy to be successful, the Russian occupiers must concentrate a strike force of 300 to 400 thousand personnel, plus equipment. But they will not be able to assemble such a group in the near future.
Bombs FAB-3000
The first point is whether the Russians have a universal planning and correction module for such weight. So far we have not seen such examples and they have not even been shown on Russian propaganda television.
The second question is: who is the carrier of such bombs? First of all, this is a rare Tu-22M3 strategic aircraft. The Russians will have to use it not in the far zone, but in the near zone, like the Su-34. Will the Russians be able to do this in order to carry out bombing strikes? If they are desperate, they can try. In this case, the Tu-22 M3 will be at risk. But today Russia does not have a full production cycle for these aircraft.
