Moving with an elephant: what is behind Kuleba’s visit to India

On March 28-29, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba visited India. His visit can already be considered a landmark, because there have been no such trips since 2017. On the agenda is the resumption of pre-war relations, the involvement of India in Zelensky’s Peace Formula, and also, quite logically, the Russian issue.

Various ratings

Based on the results of past meetings, Dmitry Kuleba has already announced changes in India’s attitude towards a full-scale war by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. According to him, “perhaps we in Ukraine would like these changes to be faster and brighter, but India has its own foreign policy, its own interests.”

“Task number one is to return the level of cooperation between countries to the pre-war level. The second task is to work on new joint projects and programs. The third question is the World Formula,” noted Dmitry Kuleba.

At the same time, his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was more “dry” in his assessments.

“Our discussions have focused on the ongoing conflict and its wider implications. We exchanged views on various initiatives in this context. We also talked about global and regional issues of interest to both of us,” Jaishankar wrote on social network X (formerly Twitter).

It is the political component of the relationship that seems key in the near future. The fact is that Ukraine is organizing a global peace summit in the summer. India is one of the important participants in it, because at least two out of ten points of the Ukrainian peace formula are relevant for New Delhi - environmental and nuclear safety.

“In principle, they (Indian representatives - “Apostrophe”) participated in all meetings discussing the World Formula, starting with Copenhagen last year. That is, there is absolutely hope that they will participate in this summit as well. As I understand it, they are expected to play a more mediating role in these negotiations. Not just to take part ourselves, but to set an example for other countries,” notes Elena Bordilovskaya, head of the department of new challenges at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, in a conversation with Apostrophe.

Mediation as a factor during elections

Many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America can follow the example of India and its position on Russia and Ukraine. By the way, Ukrainian diplomacy operates in a similar way in the Middle East – through Saudi Arabia.

“Dmitry Kuleba hinted several times that he expects India to play a mediating role in negotiations with Russia. That is, after this summit, it is possible that the Indian side will somehow convey to Russia messages that are important for us,” says Elena Bordilovskaya.

According to her, the interest of the current Indian leadership is to gain additional prestige, as well as to use this factor in the parliamentary elections, which will last until the summer of this year.

“In India they are very proud of such steps, they show that, you see, we have such opportunities - to talk with both. In just three weeks, elections begin in India, in which Narendra Modi and his party are going to be re-elected. And it is important for him to show that he has a very successful foreign policy. That he was able to bring India to such a height where Indian diplomats calmly talk with Americans and Russians,” emphasizes Elena Bordilovskaya.

By the way, on the eve of Dmitry Kuleba’s visit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by phone with President Vladimir Zelensky. And on the same day, Mode called Putin to congratulate him on his re-election as president.

Ukrainian tanks as an insult factor

Another goal stated by Dmitry Kuleba is the restoration of the pre-war level of relations. And this is where the most challenges are seen.

From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, India maintained a position of strategic neutrality. It couldn't have been any other way. Over the past 30 years, Ukrainian diplomats have paid little attention to this area, although Indian students have been studying at our universities, and agricultural and engineering exports from Ukraine have been gradually increasing.

A serious blow to relations with India was the delivery of 320 Ukrainian tanks to Pakistan in 1996. Let us remember that there were 3 large-scale wars with this country in India over the disputed region of Kashmir.

“Before 2012, we had neither political nor economic relations. Even intergovernmental commissions were not held. I just worked at the Ministry of Economic Development, in the trade and economic department, and was given the task of restoring these relations. And only 9 years later we managed to hold an intergovernmental commission. So, India told us before the commission: “you sold tanks to our enemies and we don’t want to have any relations with you. And the Russians have always supported us, we are with the Russians and will rely on them,” international affairs expert Ruslan Osipenko describes the situation in a conversation with Apostrophe.

And although it was agreed upon to resume meetings of the commission, the last such meeting took place back in 2018.

Before the full-scale attack by Russia, the basis of our trade was engineering and agricultural products. The volumes were too small to influence India's political position. And they have fallen even more now.

“I myself negotiated with India. They offer us buffalo skins, their tea, and such things. And we give them high-tech products, for example, Motor Sich engines. “Hartron” offered something. But we couldn’t sell weapons, because we used to supply Pakistan,” Ruslan Osipenko shares his experience.

Russia has been actively exploiting cultural sentiment since Soviet times and selling its weapons to India. From helicopters and airplanes to warships and submarines. This factor is quite important. Over the past two decades, Russia has supplied 65% of the weapons purchased by India, according to SIPRI.

Having Russian weapons means constantly depending on Moscow for components, maintenance, etc. It is therefore not surprising that in 2022 the country refrained from criticizing the Kremlin. It also increased the export of crude oil from Russia, albeit at favorable discounts.

Nevertheless, India sent more than 10 shipments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine. And this, together with Kuleba’s visit, gives certain reasons to expect changes in relations.

Changing positions

In recent years, India's position has changed somewhat. Not so much thanks to Ukraine, but more because of the actions of our allies. The US is actively trying to bring India into the alliance against China. And this automatically affects the Indian position regarding its ally, that is, China’s vassal, Russia.

“India was simply offered an opportunity that it simply did not want to refuse - to become the number one country in Southeast Asia. To balance China, India will now be raised, let’s say, economically, politically and technologically. That is, investments and technologies will go there,” says Ruslan Osipenko.

Back in 2022, the G7 initiative appeared to invest $600 billion over 5 years. into the infrastructure of the countries of the Global South.

“The Fund was supposed to ensure less influence of China on countries that are on its outer contour. Same Vietnam, Thailand and India. And this money should have been spent on creating a parallel transport corridor, which would be parallel to the Chinese so-called Silk Road, which would originate in India,” the expert emphasizes.

However, now this transport corridor is still blocked due to the incitement of conflicts in the Middle East by the actions of Russia and Iran. But obviously no one is going to give up these ideas.

Not least thanks to the United States, New Delhi’s position towards Russian oil has changed. Since the beginning of the year, almost all Indian companies have stopped buying it due to fears of sanctions. About 7.6 million barrels of US oil will arrive in India next month, the highest level in the past year.

But more important over the longer term is US defense cooperation with India. Changes are visible here too. Last June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States. Among other things, the two countries agreed to jointly produce engines for American fighter jets in India. India has also allowed US Navy ships to be repaired at Indian shipyards and will purchase US-made drones. And this may further reduce India’s dependence on Russian weapons. Moreover, it opens up additional opportunities for Ukraine. Not directly, but through the mediation of American companies cooperating with both Ukraine and India.

In general, the US factor in relations between Ukraine and India may be more important than it seems. If Washington can influence New Delhi against Russia in its own interests, then why not take advantage of it. At the same time, one should definitely not expect a complete break in relations between India and Russia in the coming years: the relations between New Delhi and Moscow are too old and large-scale.