A new stage in the Ukrainian war.
Against this background, work is underway to develop security guarantees for Ukraine from its partners, the goal of which is to create a reliable system for strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities to ensure its, and, accordingly, pan-European security.
Thus, the EU is working on a draft long-term commitment to Ukraine in the security and defense sector - a framework document that, among other things, includes intelligence exchange, cooperation in the defense industry, training of the Ukrainian military, assistance in the implementation of European integration reforms, etc.
This document should become an addition to Ukraine’s bilateral agreements on guarantees with individual EU members. In addition, Ukraine is negotiating with representatives of the G7 regarding agreements on military and economic assistance.
But what should security guarantees look like for Ukraine so that they are not a declarative action, but a real, effective tool? UkraineWorld asked Valentin Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research.
A full guarantee of Ukraine's security is its membership in NATO. Since this option is now unrealistic, an initiative has emerged to develop security guarantees for Ukraine in order to ensure its stability and ability to repel aggression until the moment when Ukraine receives the desired membership.
The idea of security guarantees should be to transform Ukraine into such a strong state, superior to the enemy, that this would ensure a situation where further aggression against Ukraine is impossible. Their key aspect should be a clear definition by the guarantors of material and technical assistance and the integration of their defense industry with the Ukrainian one.
The model of security guarantees for Israel is indicative in this context. This is exactly the format that would be acceptable for Ukraine. Israel not only received more than $3 billion in aid from the United States annually, but also carried out joint developments with them. The results of such cooperation are used both in Israel and in the United States. A prime example is the Arrow missile defense system.
Using such a model, Ukraine would become not only a developer of advanced weapons together with leading countries, but also a participant in supplies. In addition to increasing defense capability, technological development and weapons production would contribute to the economic development of Ukraine. And a strong economy is one of the factors for strengthening security.
Obtaining military technology from partners is a key component of security guarantees for Ukraine. For example, to effectively repel a Russian invasion, Ukraine critically needs long-range missiles, which neither the United States nor Germany agree to transfer.
Ukraine is independently developing its missile program and has the production capacity. Obtaining the necessary technologies from partners would allow Ukraine to produce such missiles itself. Also with technologies for creating powerful drones at the operational-tactical and operational-strategic levels, the latest air defense systems, modern ammunition, etc.
In addition to access to technology, military-technical production played an important role in ensuring security for Ukraine - in the form of joint developments and joint production. And Ukraine is already implementing joint projects that could become the initial element of guarantors as well. Now we have interim solutions that must be transformed into a systemic solution, enshrined in agreements on security guarantees.
Therefore, what does Ukraine have now? For example, an agreement was reached with the United States on the exchange of technologies and the start of joint production. At least, we are talking about two projects: the production of 155-mm ammunition in Ukraine and the further implementation of the FrankenSAM air defense system project.
It looks like Western countries are determined to implement joint projects using simpler (not the latest) technologies, gradually moving to more complex ones. For example, this is clearly seen from the messages of the German company Rheinmetall, which announces the joint production of light armored vehicles of a not very new modification, like the Fuchs armored personnel carrier. Then, obviously, the company will offer joint production of the tank (although an agreement has already been concluded on the joint production of a new tank with Hungary). And only then will we be able to move on to the latest systems, like the Skynex air defense system.
Not only the content, but also the form of security guarantees is important. It is extremely important that they not only contain clearly defined data on the content of assistance, but also be legally formalized with fixed obligations and approved by the parliaments of the guarantor countries, so that in the event of a change of government or political course in a particular country, the provided guarantees continue to be implemented.
For example, an agreement on security guarantees from France could be prepared before the end of the year. However, there are certain nuances that make it unacceptable for Ukraine. First, France does not define clear obligations and does not record any figures for the provision of support. Secondly, the agreement is not going to be approved in parliament, which automatically turns it into a declaration of intent. The example of a change in power in Slovakia and the Netherlands proves how dramatically the policy of providing military aid can change.
Providing security guarantees to Ukraine is primarily beneficial to the guarantors themselves. Ukraine has significant experience and material resources for the development and production of weapons. In addition, it operates in the global arms market. Therefore, the joint development of the defense industry would not just be an investment in the development of Ukraine’s capabilities, but a mutually beneficial cooperation.
In addition, Ukraine actually protects NATO's eastern flank and pays for it with the blood of its people. Therefore, providing security guarantees to Ukraine is, first of all, ensuring European countries’ own security. This is important given Russia's aggressive intentions towards the Baltic countries or Eastern Europe. According to statements by the head of the Polish intelligence service, Russia will be ready to attack NATO countries in three years. The Center for Research on the Army, Conversion and Disarmament speaks of Russia’s readiness in two to two and a half years.
When we talk about security guarantees, we are not talking about Europeans defending Ukraine with arms in hand. The point is that they provide Ukraine with the opportunity to defend itself, and thus Ukraine will, de facto, defend Europe.
