Does Ukraine need new nuclear reactors?

The largest Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Ukraine found itself under occupation after the Russian invasion, which is why our country needs new generation capacity. The government intends to resolve this issue through the construction of new nuclear power units. At the same time, as expected, they will be built at the Khmelnitsky NPP - four more will be added to the two existing reactors.

Four new nuclear power units will be built in Ukraine, which should compensate for the temporary loss of capacity of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant occupied by Russia. Energy Minister German Galushchenko told Reuters about this. According to him, all four units will be located at the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant.

Galushchenko suggested that construction would begin in the summer or fall of 2024. “We want to do the third and fourth blocks right away,” he said. According to the minister, Ukraine is now negotiating with Bulgaria on the acquisition of two nuclear reactors produced using Soviet (and now Russian) technology for VVER-1000 power units. The other two units at the Khmelnitsky NPP are expected to be built using technology from the American company Westinghouse with AP-1000 reactors.

Soviet-American mix

Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine had four nuclear power plants (the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was shut down in 2000), which operated a total of 15 power units. On March 4, 2022, Russian troops captured the largest in Ukraine and Europe (and the ninth in the world) Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the total design capacity of which is more than 6,000 megawatts. The occupiers were unable to connect the station to the Russian energy system. Today, Zaporizhia NPP does not produce electricity – neither for Russia nor for Ukraine.

Thus, under the actual control of Kyiv there are now three nuclear power plants, which in total use nine power units: three at the Yuzhno-Ukrainskaya (all with a capacity of 1000 megawatts), four at the Rivne (two with a capacity of 440 megawatts and two with a capacity of 1000 megawatts each) and two - on Khmelnitskaya (1000 megawatts each).

In addition, two power units at the Khmelnytsky NPP remain unfinished since Soviet times. The readiness of the third block exceeds 70%, the readiness of the fourth is less than 30%. Thus, German Galushchenko, in fact, confirmed that, first of all, we are talking about the completion of these two power units.

“If we received the reactors now, I think that in 2.5 years the third reactor would be ready,” the minister said, without saying what the expected time frame for the construction of the remaining power units was.

As for the fifth and sixth blocks, it is obvious that they will be built from scratch using American technology. In December 2023, NNEGC Energoatom and Westinghouse signed an agreement on the purchase by Ukraine of equipment for the fifth unit of the KhNPP. Previously, it was also assumed that Westinghouse would be involved in the construction of the fourth power unit.

Today, the American company supplies its fuel to most power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants. According to Energoatom’s plans, in 2024 all 15 power units of Ukrainian nuclear power plants will have to switch to Westinghouse fuel (although this is hardly possible while the Zaporozhye NPP remains under occupation).

Technique without justification

The loss, albeit temporary, of the Zaporozhye NPP creates a certain shortage of available generation capacity. True, this does not prevent Ukraine from from time to time, of course, not in cold seasons, from exporting small volumes of electricity to neighboring countries of the European Union. However, more often you still have to import electricity. And in this regard, the construction of new capacities looks quite reasonable.

But how correct is the decision to build nuclear power units, especially on one industrial site?

“The feasibility study for the construction of the third and fourth reactors of the Khmelnytsky NPP was approved in 2017, but since then a lot has changed, in particular, prices for equipment and fuel. In addition, the approved feasibility study dealt with VVER reactors manufactured by the Czech company Škoda. Now we are talking about purchasing other reactors from Bulgaria,” nuclear safety expert Olga Kosharnaya tells Apostrophe. “Therefore, in my opinion, for construction it is necessary to develop a new feasibility study, and this is a very large-scale document that should contain the results of a large number of examinations – sanitary, fire, construction and the like.”

In addition, the sites at the Khmelnitsky NPP are prepared for reactors of a different modification: “These reactors will not geometrically fit into ready-made shafts, so they will have to be rebuilt.”

Another problem is that the set of equipment that Ukraine is going to buy from Bulgaria does not contain important elements, including those responsible for the safety of reactor operation. Only the reactor manufacturer can produce these elements. “Therefore, if this equipment is purchased, Energoatom will have to purchase the necessary elements in Russia, probably through European gasket companies,” explains Olga Kosharnaya.

And finally, it should be borne in mind that the construction of nuclear power units must be coordinated with all neighboring countries. “This is a large-scale job that cannot be done in six months,” says Koszarna. “And if you start construction without the consent of your neighbors, they will go to court for violating international law.”

A new target for the aggressor

Thus, as we see, there are many problems associated with the construction of new nuclear power units.

In this regard, the head of the public council under the State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine (SNRCU), Sergei Denisenko, considers the plans voiced by German Galushchenko to be absolutely unrealistic.

“It is planned to spend money on purchasing equipment from Bulgaria and the United States manufactured for other projects that were later closed. And today the owners of this equipment are ready to sell it at a discount, since it is no longer needed,” the expert told Apostrophe.

But the most important thing is the issue of safety.

“During a war, there is no need to talk about any nuclear safety. We see that the IAEA has no ability to achieve the declared safety principles,” says Sergei Denisenko. – The experience of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant has shown that the Russians will not stop at any acts of nuclear terrorism. And nothing will prevent them from attacking these power units during construction, which will formally not be an attack on a nuclear facility, since the fuel will not yet be loaded, but the equipment will be destroyed. And, perhaps, the initiators of construction are counting on something similar, since this will allow them to write off the money spent on construction and the purchase of equipment.”

The main thing is maneuvers

Everything that was mentioned above directly concerns the construction of nuclear reactors on the territory of the Khmelnytsky NPP, but in fact the problem is much broader.

“Our goal, as stated by the Department of Energy, is to decentralize generation in order to make it less vulnerable to enemy attacks. And the construction of 4 gigawatts of capacity in one place at once completely contradicts this concept, says Olga Kosharnaya. – Moreover, it is not clear whether the Ukrainian economy needs such an amount of energy. And if Energoatom plans to export this energy, then now it is necessary to negotiate with neighboring countries to the extent they need it. After all, Poland, Hungary and other countries are also actively building their own nuclear capacities.”

Therefore, the construction of small nuclear reactors in Ukraine, which, by the way, was considered even before the Russian invasion, could be more promising. Such modules would provide dispersal of generation and greater maneuverability.

But even with this, not everything is clear. “Small modular reactors are a promising concept, but there is no talk about the possibility of their construction in the coming years,” says Sergei Denisenko.

The fact is that to this day not a single reactor of this type has yet been built. “Therefore, we should wait a few years until such reactors appear somewhere,” says Olga Kosharnaya. – Most likely, the first country to do this will be Canada. And then we will be able to begin implementing the proven technology.”

According to the expert, the Ukrainian energy system lacks shunting capacity capable of covering consumption peaks (and generation at nuclear power plants is precisely not capable of providing such maneuverability - “Apostrophe”). “The creation of such capacities, first of all, thermal installations operating on gas, coal and biofuel, with a total capacity of 5 gigawatts, is a priority direction for the development of the system, which will ensure balancing of the system,” Kosharnaya summed up.