What will happen to Ukraine's energy supply in winter?

Ukraine has been able to rebuild its energy infrastructure after the destruction caused by Russian missile attacks last winter. Moreover, the country has a surplus of electricity, which is now being sold to neighboring countries.

Warm September helped

Despite the enormous destruction last winter, the Ukrainian energy sector has largely restored its potential. And so much so that already in the summer our country was able to begin exporting electricity.

In particular, as reported by Energy Minister German Galushchenko, in September the volumes of supplies abroad were the largest this year - 111 thousand megawatt-hours.

And this contributed to strengthening the energy isolation of the aggressor country.

“When European countries receive carbon-neutral Ukrainian electricity, they consume less Russian coal and gas,” Galushchenko said. – And this is one of the reasons for Russian attacks on our energy system. Ukraine can replace billions of cubic meters of Russian gas with its electricity.”

Electricity exports to European countries began in June and continue to this day.

“This is beneficial for us, since at certain hours (at night and in the middle of the day) Ukrainian power plants produce excess energy,” Vladimir Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, told Apostrophe. “And, since it cannot be stored, in order to balance the network, it is necessary either to limit energy production or to sell it in neighboring markets, receiving funds. This money helps energy workers financially ensure preparations for winter, repair work at facilities destroyed by Russian bombing, and the purchase of energy resources.”

Typically, maximum energy export volumes are observed in the summer months, when warm weather, long daylight hours and holiday periods reduce consumption significantly. However, this year the peak of deliveries has moved to September.

“This is explained by the fact that at the beginning of autumn the generation capacity increased noticeably,” said Roman Nitsovich, director of analytical research at DiXi Group. – Nuclear power units and some thermal generation have begun to come out of repair. In addition, warm and sunny weather in September contributed to solar power and relatively low consumption, resulting in a large enough energy surplus that could be offered for export.”

As for the above-mentioned carbon neutrality, it is due to the fact that the main volumes of Ukrainian electricity exports are provided by nuclear power plants. The energy they generate has recently been classified as “green” in Europe, since its production does not emit carbon dioxide. Nuclear power units cannot quickly maneuver their power like, for example, thermal units, and it is impossible to turn them off during hours when consumption drops. Therefore, they produce the bulk of the surplus that is exported.

Exporting energy to Europe is beneficial for energy companies from a purely financial point of view.

“The EU energy market is more liquid than the Ukrainian one,” explains Roman Nitsovich. – Having sold their goods there, domestic companies have the opportunity to receive money immediately and without the risk of debt. Whereas in the domestic market they often have to deal with consumers’ reluctance to pay.”

Also, the increase in exports is facilitated by the strengthening of connections between Ukrainian energy networks and neighboring European countries (since the spring of 2022, the Ukrainian and European energy systems have merged).

“This year there has been an increase in the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine due to the implementation of the program of the transmission system operator Ukrenergo,” Gennady Ryabtsev, head of special projects at the Psyche scientific and technical center, told the publication. – Now Ukraine can transmit almost twice as much energy across the border as before. Accordingly, export opportunities have also increased. And, if necessary, then import. If in winter there is an energy shortage due to damage to energy facilities, it will be possible to cover about 10% of the needs of Ukrainian consumers through imports.”

Of course, purchasing energy on the European market requires funds. And this is another reason for increasing exports now. After all, in this way you can accumulate money, with which, if necessary, in winter you can purchase the necessary electricity abroad.

There will be no favorites

Despite the cold snap, electricity exports continue into October. According to Vladimir Omelchenko, it mainly goes to Slovakia and Moldova.

However, as winter approaches, electricity supplies abroad will decrease. The main reasons for this are an increase in domestic consumption and the almost inevitable resumption of Russian attacks on the facilities of the Ukrainian energy system.

“If the Russians manage to cause significant damage to energy facilities and energy production decreases, exports will have to be stopped completely, focusing on supplying domestic consumers,” says Roman Nitsovich. “But, even if in this case, the energy deficit in the system continues, we will have to return to the practice of limiting consumption by introducing scheduled shutdowns.”

Such schedules have already been prepared, made public and will be applied if necessary. And let’s hope that this year the energy sector is better prepared for their introduction.

“Last winter, when regular power outages began, there were many complaints about fair distribution. Some homes experienced blackouts all the time, while others experienced almost no outages. Therefore, during the summer period, the schedules were optimized so that outages occurred more evenly,” says Roman Nitsovich.

An important factor for a constant energy supply in winter is the accumulation of the required amount of energy resources. And in this direction, according to the expert, there are certain problems.

“Since the spring, the government has set the task of creating reserves for both private and state energy enterprises,” says Nitsovich. “In particular, 14.7 billion cubic meters of gas should be accumulated, and at the end of September Naftogaz reached this figure. However, it should be borne in mind that more than 2 billion cubic meters of this volume belong to non-residents of Ukraine. And, most likely, this gas is not intended for Ukraine, but will be supplied to the EU and Moldova.”

Also, in accordance with the government’s instructions, energy enterprises were supposed to accumulate 1.8 million tons of coal in warehouses by October 15: “However, we still have problems with this. At the moment, the target figure has not been achieved, and this creates the risk that a deficit may arise in the winter, which will have to be covered through imports. Both DTEK (which is owned by the richest Ukrainian Rinat Akhmetov - “Apostrophe”) and the state-owned enterprise Centrenergo have already announced their intentions to import coal.

Thus, in order to survive the winter without major blackouts, we will have to rely on the smooth operation of our air defense and a relatively mild winter, which will compensate for a possible lack of energy resources. In the meantime, we can focus on exporting electricity to neighboring countries, which will help strengthen our relations with them and also allow us to earn some money. Which can also be used to solve our energy problems.